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To support the new scientific opportunities of the coming decade, and to lay the foundations for future missions for 2020 and beyond, the committee recommends several augmentations to core activities, as well as some new programs of small scale. These are unranked and listed in alphabetical order. Programs that are not mentioned are assumed to proceed with existing budget profiles, subject to senior review recommendations, although the committee emphasizes the importance of many small elements of the core research programs described in Chapter 5. Astrophysics Theory Program New investments in the Astrophysics Theory Program (ATP) will be amply repaid in the form of new mission concepts and enhanced scientific return from existing missions. A $35 million augmentation or 25 percent increase is recommended. Definition of a Future UV-Optical Space Capability Following the fourth servicing mission, the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is now more capable than ever before and is enabling spectacular science, including observation at ultraviolet wavelengths. No more servicing missions are planned, and NASA intends to deorbit HST robotically at the end of the decade. The committee endorses this decision. Meanwhile, the results from FUSE, GALEX, and the HST’s Cosmic Origins Spectrograph now show that as much could be learned about the universe at ultraviolet wavelengths, as motivated the proposal and development of JWST for observations at infrared wavelengths. Topics that are central to the survey’s committee’s proposed science program include understanding the history of the intergalactic medium and its cycling in and out of galaxies as well as the evolution of normal stars and galaxies. Key advances could be made with a telescope with a 4-meter-diameter aperture with large field of view and fitted with high-efficiency UV and optical cameras/spectrographs operating at shorter wavelengths than HST. This is a compelling vision that requires further technology development. The committee highly recommends a modest program of technology development to begin mission trade-off studies, in particular those contrasting coronagraph and star-shade approaches, and to invest in essential technologies such as detectors, coatings, and optics, to prepare for a mission to be considered by the 2020 decadal survey. A notional budget of $40 million for the decade is recommended. Intermediate Technology Development As described in Chapter 5, a technology development gap has emerged between “Blue Skies” investigations and mission-specific development. The gap is formally associated with NASA’s technology readiness levels 3 through 5. Research and analysis (R&A) funding in this program has fallen in recent years. The committee recommends that funding for such medium-term technology development be augmented at the level of $2 million per year starting early in the decade, ramping up to an augmentation of $15 million per year by 2021. Science Plan: Letter Report (2006), and Supporting Research and Data Analysis in NASA’s Science Programs: Engines for Innovation and Synthesis (1998), all published by National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-26
Laboratory Astrophysics As described in Chapter 5, support and infrastructure for laboratory astrophysics are eroding both in the National Laboratories and in universities. Yet the current Herschel mission, the next decade’s JWST and ALMA, and the future IXO will provide unprecedented spectroscopic sensitivity and resolution, enabling new quantitative diagnostics of the interstellar medium, star-forming regions, and hot plasmas in a wide variety of astrophysical contexts. With these improvements in spectroscopic capabilities in the submillimeter, infrared, and X-ray regions, extracting quantitative information will in many cases become limited by available knowledge of atomic and molecular transition data and cross sections. Further, detailed understanding of magnetized plasmas, the formation of molecules, and complex chemical reactions at a level that can only be obtained experimentally is of central importance to interpreting data from these missions. It is recommended that NASA, in coordination with DOE, assess the level of funding available for laboratory astrophysics through the APRA program relative to the requirements of its current and future spectroscopic missions. Funding through APRA that is aimed at mission-enabling laboratory astrophysics should be augmented at a level recommended by this scientific assessment. While the costs of obtaining the data that will be needed in the coming decade are difficult to estimate, an increase of 25 percent over the current budget, or a notional budget increment of $20 million over the decade, may be required. Suborbital Program NASA-supported balloon and rocket experiments, known collectively as the suborbital program, enable science, develop technology, and provide an invaluable training ground (Figure 7.7). Many highly successful Explorer missions, such as GALEX and WMAP, were preceded by balloon-borne observations and technology demonstrations. Recent efforts by NASA management have halted the long erosion of the core suborbital and R&A programs, out of which balloon and rocket payload development is funded, and these programs have largely been restored. However, additional resources are needed to support the high-priority science areas identified by this survey. NASA should investigate and, if practical and affordable, implement the orbital sounding rocket capability described by NASA’s Astrophysics Sounding Rocket Assessment Team, which would provide a few thousand times more observing time than normal sounding rocket flights, greatly increasing the science that can be accomplished from rockets. The priority in the balloon program should be to increase the launch rate and develop new payloads. The ultralong-duration balloon (ULDB) program is attractive, because it provides about a factor-of-three more observing time than Antarctic long-duration balloons (LDBs) as well as mid-latitude long-duration flights, but it is expensive. One of this survey’s priority science areas, CMB, along with related dark-matter and cosmic-ray detection experiments, has primary requirements for frequent access and increased total observing. If it is more cost-effective per observing day to expand the LDB program and improve its facilities and recovery reliability, then this should have the highest priority. To increase the launch rate by about 25 percent, it is recommended that the R&A program be augmented by $5 million per year to accommodate the selection of additional balloon and rocket payloads. In addition, $10 million per year will be needed to support the additional launches and improvements in infrastructure. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-27
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
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Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
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DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
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activities 2 that have emerged from
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In addition to the 27 panel meeting
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
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The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
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APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
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light up the universe, marking the
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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
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TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
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Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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this imprint would both probe funda
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important outcome will be to open u
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estimated to be on the order of $20
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observatories. For NASA an annual b
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surveys of large fields, enabling s
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RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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departments and the community as a
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dominate spending; (2) private-publ
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us was certainly evident during the
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BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
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FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
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FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
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FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
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Most stars with masses smaller than
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BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
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send material raining into the cent
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BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
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Stars Stars are the most observable
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ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
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The Nature of Inflation As describe
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FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
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An important clue to the nature of
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Studying the properties of neutron
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FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
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partners and makes recommendations
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As astronomy research has blossomed
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
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TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
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29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
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CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
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Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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assistant and associate professor p
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
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FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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Page 167 and 168: Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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Page 207 and 208: A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
Page 209 and 210: PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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Page 223 and 224: CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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