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for a space-based planet imaging and spectroscopy mission could start late in the decade in preparation for a mission start early in the 2020 decade. The committee envisions that this program can be implemented at moderate funding levels early in this decade, but that it will require augmentation over current support levels for all of these activities. From the above considerations, a budget of $4 million per year is recommended in the first several years of the decade, in addition to the generally available technology development funds. If the scientific groundwork has been laid and the design requirements for an imaging mission have become clear by the second half of this decade, a technology down-select should be made. Furthermore, mission development should be supported at an appropriate level for the mission design and scope to be well understood. Initiating this activity will require significantly greater resource levels than the early-decade mission-enabling activities described above. It is currently difficult to anticipate the developments that could justify initiating this mission-specific development program, and the committee therefore recommends that a decadal survey independent advice committee be convened mid-decade to review progress both scientifically and technically to determine the way forward, and in particular whether an increased level of support associated with mission-specific technology development should commence. In this case a notional decadal budget of $100 million is proposed. However, the level of late-decade investment required is uncertain, and the appropriate level must be determined by a decadal survey independent advice committee (DSIAC) review. It could range between the notional budget used here up to a significant (perhaps on the order $200 million) mission-specific technology program starting mid-decade. The committee’s proposed program is designed to allow a habitable-exoplanet imaging mission to be well formulated in time for consideration by the 2020 decadal survey. Priority 2 (Medium, Space). Technology Development for a 2020 Decade Mission to Probe the Epoch of Inflation Detecting the B-mode polarization pattern on the cosmic microwave background impressed by gravitational waves produced during the first few moments of the universe both would provide strong evidence for the theory of inflation that is so crucial to our understanding of how structures form, and would open a new window on exotic physics in the early universe in regimes not accessible even to the most powerful particle accelerators on Earth. Progress in measuring both the polarization and the finescale anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation is proceeding rapidly with ground-based telescopes in Antarctica and Chile and space-based instruments. The recommended enhanced suborbital program, as described below, as well as missions of opportunity made possible by an augmented Explorer program, will provide opportunities for substantive balloon experiments to probe the polarization signal to faint levels. NASA through the APRA program, as described below, should augment support for CMB technology development at a modest level. If the combined space and ground-based program is successful in making a positive detection of B-modes from the epoch of inflation, it is further recommended that NASA then should embark on an enhanced program of technology development, with a view to preparing a mature proposal for a dedicated space mission to study inflation through CMB observations for consideration by the 2020 decadal survey. If this observational goal is not met, then the suborbital programs and the broad technology development programs should continue to be supported at the same early-decade level with the goal of further improving detection limits. In summary, significant progress on CMB studies, including the understanding of foregrounds, is certain given the successful operation of Planck and the suborbital and ground-based facilities that are currently operating or will come online soon. A successful detection of B-modes from inflation could trigger a mid-decade shift in focus toward preparing to map them over the entire sky. In this case a notional decadal budget of $60 million is proposed. However, the level of late-decade investment required is uncertain, and the appropriate level should be studied by a decadal survey independent advice PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-24
committee review. It could range between the notional budget used here up to a significant (perhaps on the order of $200 million) mission-specific technology program starting mid-decade. 17 Recommendations for New Space Activities—Small Projects Most small missions and contributions to non-NASA programs can be competed within the Explorer program and are best handled there through the peer-review process. However, one time-critical opportunity with compelling scientific return—the Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) mission—exceeds the scale allowed by Explorer MoOs, and the committee recommends that NASA proceed with contributions to its development as described below. The committee considered it along with the competed investigator programs that are also described below, and does not rank any of these small-scale opportunities. U.S. Contribution to the JAXA-ESA SPICA Mission The tremendous success of the Spitzer Space Telescope has spurred the development of a yetmore-powerful mid- and far-infrared mission, the Japanese-led SPICA mission. It addresses many of this report’s identified science goals, especially understanding the birth of galaxies, stars, and planets as well as the cycling of matter though our own interstellar medium and dusty gas in nearby galaxies. SPICA will have a cooled 3.5-meter aperture and operate at wavelengths from 5 to 210 microns. The planned launch date is 2018. The committee recommends that the United States should join this project by contributing infrared instrumentation, which would exploit unique U.S. expertise and detector experience. The committee received a proposal from a project called BLISS which provided one possible way to meet this opportunity and was rated highly by the survey’s Program Prioritization Panel on Electromagnetiic Observations from Space. NASA has recently issued a call for proposals for science investigation concept studies that will elicit more ideas. Such participation would provide cost-effective access to an advanced facility for the U.S. research community and full participation in the science teams. Because JAXA and ESA are currently moving ahead, joining SPICA is time-sensitive, and so the committee urges NASA to work with JAXA to determine the optimal phasing of an Announcement of Opportunity for contributions. A notional budget of $150 million, including operations over the decade, is recommended. Small Additions and Augmentations to NASA’s Core Research Programs As discussed in Chapter 5, NASA’s core research programs—such as support for individual investigator grants, data management, theoretical studies, and innovative technology development—are fundamental to mission development and essential for scientific progress. They provide the foundation for new ideas that stretch the imagination, and they lay the groundwork for nearer-term Explorer programs as well as far-future vision missions. They provide the means to interpret the results from currently operating missions. Maintaining these core activities, even in the face of cost overruns from major missions, has high priority and is the most effective way to maintain balance in the research program. 18 17 For budget planning purposes the committee set aside $150 million to account for the most likely scenario if this program or the New Worlds program goes forward at a high funding level. 18 See for example the following National Research Council reports: An Enabling Foundation for NASA’s Earth and Space Science Missions (2009), A Performance Assessment of NASA's Astrophysics Program (2007), An Assessment of Balance in NASA's Science Programs (2006), Review of the Science Mission Directorate's Draft PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-25
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PREPUBLICATION COPY
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
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Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
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DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
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activities 2 that have emerged from
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In addition to the 27 panel meeting
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
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The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
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APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
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light up the universe, marking the
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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
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TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
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Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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this imprint would both probe funda
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important outcome will be to open u
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estimated to be on the order of $20
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observatories. For NASA an annual b
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surveys of large fields, enabling s
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RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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departments and the community as a
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dominate spending; (2) private-publ
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us was certainly evident during the
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BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
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FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
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FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
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FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
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Most stars with masses smaller than
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BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
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send material raining into the cent
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BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
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Stars Stars are the most observable
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ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
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The Nature of Inflation As describe
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FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
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An important clue to the nature of
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Studying the properties of neutron
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FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
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partners and makes recommendations
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As astronomy research has blossomed
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
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TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
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29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
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CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
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Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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assistant and associate professor p
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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Page 138 and 139: FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
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Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
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Page 148 and 149: FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
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Page 154 and 155: TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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Page 163 and 164: FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
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Page 167 and 168: Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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Page 173 and 174: Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
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Page 179 and 180: FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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Page 187 and 188: Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Page 195 and 196: The committee reviewed a technical
Page 197 and 198: FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Page 207 and 208: A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
Page 209 and 210: PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
Page 211 and 212: A preliminary recommended program w
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Page 221 and 222: decadal research strategy with reco
Page 223 and 224: CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
Page 225 and 226: NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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