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• Planetary Systems and Star Formation, • Stars and Stellar Evolution The charge to and principal findings of the SFPs are summarized in Appendix A. The individual SFP reports describe in more detail the science priorities. 1 The work of these panels formed the foundation for the prioritization process. The prioritization process included projects not yet started from the preceding decadal survey, Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium (AANM). 2 The rationale for their review stems from a need to ensure that these research activities are still up to date technologically, that the science questions they tackle remain compelling and a high priority, and that their cost and schedule are still commensurate with the science return. Given the multidecade timescales required for development of major facilities from concept to construction to operation, it should not be surprising that many of these projects have evolved in technical and/or scientific scope since AANM, further motivating their reconsideration. Because of the need for significant technical expertise in developing a prioritized program from a wide array of candidate ongoing and proposed activities, four Program Prioritization Panels (PPPs) were also established by the NRC to assist the committee in studying technical and programmatic issues within the following areas: • Electromagnetic Observations from Space (EOS)—activities funded largely by NASA, some with a DOE component; • Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground (OIR)—activities funded largely by NSF and private entities, some with a DOE component; • Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation (PAG)—activities funded by NASA, NSF, and DOE; and • Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter from the Ground (RMS)—activities funded largely by NSF with some private components. The charge to the PPPs and their principal recommendations for new activities are summarized in Appendix B. The PPPs started with the SFPs’ conclusions on the highest-priority science and then developed a program to address this science optimally. The panels also referred to pertinent NRC reports, as well as reports from the astronomy community. The individual PPP reports contain these and other non-facility recommendations spanning a range of scales. 3 Each panel was charged to consider only the potential program within its designated subdiscipline. By design this approach results in a combined program that is too large to be implemented in any reasonable budget scenario. It thus fell to the survey committee to synthesize the panel recommendations with additional consideration for the issues discussed in Chapters 3, 4, 5, and 6, and thereby develop a merged implementable program for the entire astronomy and astrophysics enterprise. Cost Risk and Technical Evaluation As an early step in the survey process (see Figure 7.1), the committee issued a request for information to the astronomy and astrophysics community to solicit input on possible future research activities. More than 100 responses proposed significant construction or programmatic activities. Following an initial analysis by the PPPs, the survey committee requested further and more detailed 1 See National Research Council, Panel Reports⎯New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., forthcoming. 2 See National Research Council, Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 2001. 3 See National Research Council, Panel Reports⎯New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., forthcoming. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-2
FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing the sequence of the survey activities and its cost and technical evaluation (CATE) process. The six committee meetings held—including the “Jamboree” meeting involving all four PPPs, the ISG chairs, the SFP chairs, and the survey committee—at key process milestones are indicated by the orange diamonds. information from a set of activity teams, which was subjected to a novel cost assessment and technical evaluation (CATE) process (see Appendix C for a detailed discussion of this process). The objective of the CATE process was to judge the readiness, technical risk, and schedule risk for the proposed projects, and then to construct associated cost and schedule estimates. The CATE process was conducted by a private contractor (the Aerospace Corporation) that was selected by competitive bid and hired by the NRC to assist the committee in executing this element of its charge. Throughout the course of the survey, the committee and the PPPs remained engaged with the contractor to ensure that the contractor understood the key aspects of the proposed activities and the key points of analysis required by the panels and the committee. All elements of a project required to produce an initial science result were included in the assessment. The assessment was intended to include technical development and construction costs, as well as operating costs for a nominal 5-year mission or project execution, but not research costs needed to exploit the science optimally. For some activities a clear path emerged to deployment from this analysis, while for others it became equally clear that certain milestones would have to be met before the activity could proceed to full implementation. For still other activities, the scientific and technical landscapes were found to be shifting too rapidly for the survey to make a definitive recommendation now, and so a strategy for addressing the science and/or retiring the technical risk is recommended. Budgets A prime task of this survey was to construct a program that is innovative and exciting yet also realistic and balanced in terms of the range and scale of federally supported activities. The committee chose for convenience and clarity to exhibit budgets in the form of unencumbered FY2010 dollars available for new initiatives, and it started by considering the agency-recommended budgets. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-3
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
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Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
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DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
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activities 2 that have emerged from
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In addition to the 27 panel meeting
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
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The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
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APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
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light up the universe, marking the
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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
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TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
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Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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this imprint would both probe funda
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important outcome will be to open u
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estimated to be on the order of $20
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observatories. For NASA an annual b
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surveys of large fields, enabling s
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RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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departments and the community as a
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dominate spending; (2) private-publ
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us was certainly evident during the
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BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
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FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
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FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
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FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
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Most stars with masses smaller than
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BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
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send material raining into the cent
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BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
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Stars Stars are the most observable
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ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
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The Nature of Inflation As describe
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FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
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An important clue to the nature of
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Studying the properties of neutron
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FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
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partners and makes recommendations
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As astronomy research has blossomed
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
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TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
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29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
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CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
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Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
Page 111 and 112: where the fraction of astronomers h
Page 113 and 114: Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
Page 115 and 116: 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
Page 117 and 118: FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
Page 119 and 120: Professional training needs to acco
Page 121: assistant and associate professor p
Page 124 and 125: fluctuating level of funding for as
Page 126 and 127: THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
Page 128 and 129: Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
Page 130 and 131: TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
Page 132 and 133: would normally be for a five-year p
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
Page 136 and 137: y optical and radio astronomers are
Page 138 and 139: FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
Page 140 and 141: ated by the Program Prioritization
Page 142 and 143: nulling interferometry. The appropr
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
Page 146 and 147: RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
Page 148 and 149: FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
Page 150 and 151: FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
Page 154 and 155: TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
Page 156 and 157: 3. Investment in new and upgraded i
Page 158 and 159: etween several competing elements i
Page 161: 7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
Page 165 and 166: SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
Page 167 and 168: Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
Page 169 and 170: JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
Page 171 and 172: optical imaging of brighter galaxie
Page 173 and 174: Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
Page 175 and 176: FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
Page 177 and 178: Recommendations for New Space Activ
Page 179 and 180: FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
Page 181 and 182: significance of mergers in the buil
Page 183 and 184: independent advice committee review
Page 185 and 186: committee review. It could range be
Page 187 and 188: Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
Page 189 and 190: Recommendations for New Ground-Base
Page 191 and 192: Program for instrumentation and fac
Page 193 and 194: excel at high spectral and spatial
Page 195 and 196: The committee reviewed a technical
Page 197 and 198: FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
Page 199 and 200: Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
Page 201 and 202: LISA as soon as possible subject to
Page 203: FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
Page 207 and 208: A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
Page 209 and 210: PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
Page 211 and 212: A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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