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estimated to be on the order of $200 million—to prepare IXO for favorable consideration in the next survey in 2020. The committee thinks that allowing IXO, or indeed any major mission, to exceed $2 billion in total cost to NASA would unacceptably imbalance NASA's astrophysics program, given the present budgetary constraints. If the technology development program is not successful in bringing cost estimates below this level, descope options must be considered. Should ESA select IXO as the first L- class mission, NASA should proceed immediately with a DSIAC review to determine an appropriate path forward to realize IXO as soon as possible with acceptable cost and schedule risk. The ranking of IXO as the fourth-priority large space mission reflects the technical, cost, and programmatic uncertainties associated with the project at the current time. Many high-priority science questions require an X-ray observatory on this scale that can continue the great advances made by Chandra and XMM-Newton. Furthermore, the science of IXO is quite complementary to that of LISA. New Worlds Technology Development Program Space Projects – Medium – in Rank Order One of the fastest-growing and most exciting fields in astrophysics is the study of planets beyond our solar system. The ultimate goal is to image rocky planets that lie in the habitable zone—at a distance from their central star where water can exist in liquid form—and to characterize their atmospheres. To prepare for this endeavor, the committee recommends a program to lay the technical and scientific foundations for a future space imaging and spectroscopy mission. NASA and NSF should support an aggressive program of ground-based high-precision radial velocity surveys of nearby stars to identify potential candidates. In the first part of the decade NASA should support competed technology development to advance multiple possible technologies for a next-decade planet imager, and should accelerate measurements of exozodiacal light levels that will determine the size and complexity of such missions. The committee recommends an initial NASA funding level of $4 million per year so as to achieve a clear set of design requirements and technology gateways to be passed. If, by mid-decade, a DSIAC review determines that sufficient information has become or is becoming available on key issues such as planet frequency and exozodiacal dust distribution, a technology down-select should be made and the level of support increased to enable a mission capable of studying nearby Earth-like planets to be mature for consideration by the 2020 decadal survey, with a view to a start early in the 2020 decade. The committee estimates that an additional $100 million will be required for the mission-specific development. Inflation Probe Technology Development Program Detecting the distinctive imprint on the cosmic microwave background caused by gravitational waves produced during the first few moments of the universe would provide evidence for the theory of inflation and open a new window on exotic physics in the early universe. Progress in detecting this signal is rapid, with advances from ground-based telescopes, suborbital flights, and the recently launched Planck satellite. The committee recommends a technology program to advance detection techniques at an annual funding level of $1 million to $2 million. If the polarization pattern imprinted by gravitational waves from the epoch of inflation is detected during this decade, the committee recommends a technology selection and mission development to design a mission to study the signal. The resulting proposal would be considered by the 2020 decadal survey. The committee estimates a budget requirement of $60 million for the development, to be triggered in the event of a convincing detection. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 1-8
Small Additions and Augmentations to Space Research Program (Unranked) U.S. Contribution to the JAXA-ESA SPICA Mission The Space Infrared telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is a Japanese-led 3.5- meter infrared telescope that will operate from 5 to 210 microns. SPICA will address many of this survey’s science priorities, including understanding the birth of galaxies, stars, and planets as well as the motion of matter though our own interstellar medium. A competed U.S. science and instrument contribution at an estimated level of $150 million over the decade is recommended. Core Research Program NASA’s core research programs, from theoretical studies to innovative technology development, are fundamental to mission development and essential for scientific progress. They provide the long-term foundation for new ideas that stretch the imagination, and they lay the groundwork for far-future vision missions. They support the maturation of new technologies needed for nearer-term Explorer and flagship missions. They provide the means to understand and interpret scientific results. Maintaining these core activities has a high priority for the survey committee, and the budget allocations should not be allowed to decrease to address overruns in the costs of large and medium missions. In addition, the following unranked specific augmentations are recommended. Astrophysics Theory Program To enhance the scientific return from operating missions and inform the investment in new ones, an augmentation of $35 million to the current funding level for the decade is recommended. Definition of a Future UV Space Capability To prepare for a future major ultraviolet mission to succeed the Hubble Space Telescope, it will be necessary to carry out a mission-definition program. A budget of roughly $40 million over the decade for mission studies and initial technology development is recommended. Intermediate Technology Development A gap has emerged within NASA between long-term so-called “Blue Skies” investigations and shorter-term mission-specific technology development. Formally this gap is associated with technology readiness levels 3 to 5. An augmentation beginning at $2 million per year and increasing to $15 million per year by the end of the decade would address this imbalance. Laboratory Astrophysics Herschel, JWST, SPICA, and IXO, with their fine spectral capabilities, will place new demands on basic nuclear, ionic, plasma, atomic, and molecular astrophysics. Care should be taken to ensure that these needs are met. An increase by $2 million per year in the funding of the present program is recommended. Suborbital Program The balloon and sounding rocket programs provide fast access to space for substantive scientific investigations and flight testing of new technology. The balloon program in particular is important for advancing detection of the cosmic microwave background and particle detection. These programs also provide a training ground for the principal investigators of tomorrow’s major missions. A growth in the budget by $15 million per year is recommended. Theory and Computation Networks To enable the large-scale theoretical investigations identified as science priorities by this survey, the committee proposes a new competed program to support coordinated theoretical and computational research—particularly that of fundamental relevance to upcoming space PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 1-9
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Page 4 and 5: THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
Page 7 and 8: COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
Page 9 and 10: Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
Page 11 and 12: DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
Page 13: SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
Page 16 and 17: activities 2 that have emerged from
Page 18 and 19: In addition to the 27 panel meeting
Page 20 and 21: Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
Page 22 and 23: The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
Page 24 and 25: APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
Page 26 and 27: light up the universe, marking the
Page 28 and 29: RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
Page 30 and 31: TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
Page 32 and 33: Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
Page 34 and 35: this imprint would both probe funda
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Page 40 and 41: observatories. For NASA an annual b
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
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TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
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29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
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CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
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Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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assistant and associate professor p
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
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FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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y optical and radio astronomers are
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FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
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ated by the Program Prioritization
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nulling interferometry. The appropr
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FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
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RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
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FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
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FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
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FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
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TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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3. Investment in new and upgraded i
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etween several competing elements i
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7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
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FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
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SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
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Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
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optical imaging of brighter galaxie
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Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
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FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
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Recommendations for New Space Activ
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FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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significance of mergers in the buil
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independent advice committee review
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committee review. It could range be
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Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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