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dominate spending; (2) private-public partnerships—such as support for instrumentation at and upgrades of privately operated observatories; and (3) investment in future facilities. Gemini is an international partnership that constructed and now operates two 8-meter opticalinfrared telescopes, one in the Northern Hemisphere, the other in the Southern Hemisphere. The United Kingdom has recently announced an intention to leave the partnership in 2012, resulting in a need to replace the U.K. support. This change presents an opportunity to revisit the management of Gemini as it transitions to stable observatory operation. RECOMMENDATION: To exploit the opportunity for improved partnership between federal, private, and international components of the optical and infrared system, NSF should explore the feasibility of restructuring the management and operations of Gemini and acquiring an increased share of the observing time. It should consider consolidating the National Optical Astronomy Observatory and Gemini under a single operational structure, both to maximize cost-effectiveness and to be more responsive to the needs of the U.S. astronomical community. Ground-Based Radio Astronomy With the commissioning of ALMA and the expectation for SKA in the future, radio astronomy stands poised to continue to offer considerable promise in the exploration of our universe. CONCLUSION: The future opportunities, worldwide, in radio-millimeter-submillimeter astronomy are considerable, but U.S. participation in projects such as the Square Kilometer Array is possible only if there is either a significant increase in NSF-AST funding or continuing closure of additional unique and highly productive facilities. Ground-Based Solar Astronomy U.S. solar astronomy is undergoing major changes with the commitment to construct the Advanced Technology Solar Telescope and the associated plan to close several existing facilities as well as to reorganize the National Solar Observatory. In addition, there is a growing interest in the solarterrestrial connection associated with climate research. These changes imply that it is time to reevaluate the management of the U.S. program. RECOMMENDATION: The NSF should work with the solar, heliospheric, stellar, planetary, and geospace communities to determine the best route to an effective and balanced ground-based solar astronomy program that maintains multidisciplinary ties. Such coordination will be essential in developing funding models for the long-term operation of major solar facilities such as the Advanced Technology Solar Telescope and Frequency-Agile Solar Radiotelescope, and in the development of next-generation instrumentation for them along with the funding of associated theory, modeling, and simulation science. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 1-18
2 On the Threshold The confluence of stunning discoveries, technological advances, and powerful ideas has made this a special time in astronomy and astrophysics. The discovery of dark energy and exoplanets, the development of new digital detectors across the electromagnetic spectrum, dramatic advances in computing power, and big ideas from particle physics have us poised for major leaps in our comprehension of the universe and our place within it. Over the next decade we will be able to trace our origins, from the quantum fluctuations that seeded galaxies in the infant universe, to the origin of atoms and dark matter, to the first stars and galaxies, and to the formation of planetary systems like ours. We are also primed to understand how the most exotic objects in the universe work, including supermassive black holes and neutron stars, as well as to figure out how planetary systems form, how common are planets in the habitable zone around stars, and how to find evidence for life elsewhere. During the decade we will push the frontiers of basic knowledge, using the universe as a laboratory to identify the exotic dark matter and understand the even more mysterious dark energy, probe the basic properties of neutrinos and determine how they shaped the universe, and test whether or not Einstein's theory of gravity fully describes black holes. Although astronomy is the oldest science, it is constantly being reborn, and we can anticipate great surprises from all the new tools that are becoming available such as opening up time-domain astronomy and the exploration of the universe with gravitational waves. In what follows the committee casts the compelling questions for the next decade and beyond in four thematic areas. These questions have resulted from the careful surveying of the current state of research in astronomy and astrophysics done by the five Science Frontiers Panels (SFPs), later synthesized by the committee. 1 An assessment of the readiness of the astronomy and astrophysics enterprise to answer these questions led directly to the science program described in later chapters. DISCOVERY New technologies, observing strategies, theories, and computations open vistas on the universe and provide opportunities for transformational comprehension, i.e. discovery. Science frontier discovery areas are: • Identification and characterization of nearby habitable exoplanets • Gravitational wave astronomy • Time‐domain astronomy • Astrometry • The epoch of reionization Scientific progress often follows predictable paths. Through keen insight and diligent pursuit, questions are asked and answered, and knowledge recorded. But many of the most revolutionary discoveries in science are made when a new way of perceiving or thinking about the universe evaporates the fog that had obscured our view and reveals an unimagined cosmic landscape all around us. The history of astronomy is replete with these revelatory moments. This capacity of the universe to astonish 1 The charge to the SFPs and their findings are summarized in Appendix A. Their reports are found in the companion volume to this report, Panel Reports⎯New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics.. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 2-1
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Page 4 and 5: THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
Page 7 and 8: COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
Page 9 and 10: Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
Page 11 and 12: DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
Page 13: SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
Page 16 and 17: activities 2 that have emerged from
Page 18 and 19: In addition to the 27 panel meeting
Page 20 and 21: Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
Page 22 and 23: The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
Page 24 and 25: APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
Page 26 and 27: light up the universe, marking the
Page 28 and 29: RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
Page 30 and 31: TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
Page 32 and 33: Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
Page 34 and 35: this imprint would both probe funda
Page 36 and 37: important outcome will be to open u
Page 38 and 39: estimated to be on the order of $20
Page 40 and 41: observatories. For NASA an annual b
Page 42 and 43: surveys of large fields, enabling s
Page 44 and 45: RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
Page 46 and 47: departments and the community as a
Page 50 and 51: us was certainly evident during the
Page 52 and 53: BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
Page 54 and 55: FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
Page 56 and 57: FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
Page 58 and 59: FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
Page 60 and 61: FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
Page 62 and 63: Most stars with masses smaller than
Page 64 and 65: BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
Page 66 and 67: send material raining into the cent
Page 68 and 69: BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
Page 70 and 71: Stars Stars are the most observable
Page 72 and 73: ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
Page 74 and 75: The Nature of Inflation As describe
Page 76 and 77: FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
Page 78 and 79: An important clue to the nature of
Page 80 and 81: Studying the properties of neutron
Page 82 and 83: FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
Page 84 and 85: partners and makes recommendations
Page 86 and 87: As astronomy research has blossomed
Page 88 and 89: are increasingly relevant. The Euro
Page 90 and 91: TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
Page 92 and 93: 29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
Page 94 and 95: CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
Page 96 and 97: Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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assistant and associate professor p
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
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FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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y optical and radio astronomers are
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FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
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ated by the Program Prioritization
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nulling interferometry. The appropr
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FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
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RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
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FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
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FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
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FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
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TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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3. Investment in new and upgraded i
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etween several competing elements i
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7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
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FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
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SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
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Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
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optical imaging of brighter galaxie
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Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
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FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
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Recommendations for New Space Activ
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FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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significance of mergers in the buil
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independent advice committee review
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committee review. It could range be
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Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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