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ated by the Program Prioritization Panels (PPPs) because they address directly the frontier science questions identified by the SFPs. TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Technology development is the engine powering advances in astronomy and astrophysics, from vastly extending the scientific reach of existing facilities, to opening up new windows on the universe. All of the PPPs emphasize the critical importance of technology development and each stresses the urgent need to augment the existing funding levels to realize their programs. Mission or project specific technology development is essential for reducing technical, cost, and schedule risk of planned missions. This development must reach an acceptable level before accurate costs can be determined, priorities set, and construction scheduled. Failure to adequately mature technology prior to a program start also leads to cost and schedule overruns. NASA-Funded Space-Based Astrophysics Technology Development Technology development can be usefully divided into three categories: 18 1. Near-term mission-specific technology development is directed toward the requirements of a specific mission. 2. Mid-term or “general” technology development is aimed at maturing the technical building blocks (detectors, optics, etc.) that will enable high-priority science to be done on future missions with low risk and predictable cost. 3. Long-term or “blue sky” development which supports development of novel ideas that could provide transformational improvements in capability and enable missions not yet dreamed of is crucial to the future vitality of NASA. Near-term Mission-specific Technology Development Needs Ensuring adequate funding up-front for mission-specific technology development is critical to predicting and managing mission costs and schedules. It has been reported that “In the mid-1980s, NASA’s budget office found that during the first 30 years of the civil space program, no project enjoyed less than a 40% cost overrun unless it was preceded by an investment in studies and technology of at least 5-10% of the actual project budget that eventually occurred.” 19 Mission-specific technology development funding has suffered substantial cuts over the last decade, and this is reflected by the immature state of a number of missions we ranked as very high scientific priority. While the LISA Pathfinder mission is designed to demonstrate a number of LISA’s critical technologies, the Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation Panel found that further investment is needed in systems engineering and life-testing of components. The Electromagnetic Observations from Space Panel identified significant technology development needs for IXO, primary among these being the selection and demonstration of the critical X-ray optics. The Survey Committee also found IXO 18 Such technology development was also recommended by a 2009 NRC report America's Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs. Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.phprecord_id=12701 19 The Critical Role of Advanced Technology Investments in Preventing Spaceflight Program Cost Overrun,The Space Review, John C. Mankins, Monday, December 1 2008, Available at http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1262/1. Accessed May 2010. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 5-18
technologies to be too immature at present for accurate cost and risk assessment, and we therefore recommend (in Chapter 7) significant investment in technology development this decade so that IXO can be considered ready for a mission start early next decade. The contribution of instrumentation to the SPICA mission is a third area where specific technology development funds are needed this decade. Determining the optimum levels is difficult, but NASA should make an effort to collect and analyze the appropriate statistics and apply sufficient funds for technology maturation for these recommended missions. Mid-term Technology Development Mid-term technology development represents the path to defining, maturing and ultimately selecting approaches to realize future scientific goals. In mid-term technology development it is usually necessary to pursue multiple paths to the same end, since both the detailed scientific requirements and success of particular technologies remain uncertain. In addition, it is essential to pursue a broad range of technologies spanning the spectrum to ensure the vitality of competed mission lines, and pave the way for next-decade missions. The later stages of mid-term development are typically more costly than earlystage concept demonstration, because they may involve expensive prototypes or significant engineering efforts to design systems that withstand testing in relevant environments. The committee identified a number of high priority science areas where mid-term investments are needed beginning early in the decade. These include development of a variety of technologies for exoplanet imaging, such as coronagraphs, interferometers and star shades, leading to possible late-decade downselect. In addition, mid-term investment is needed for systems aimed at detecting the polarization of the CMB, and for optics and detectors for a future space UV space telescope. Broad-based mid-term technology development is also crucial to the Explorer program, which selects missions that can be implemented on short timescales. Mid-term technology development is primarily funded through NASA’s APRA program, which was cut considerably in the middle of the last decade. Although APRA funding has been restored approximately to 80 percent of its 2004 level (in FY2010$), specific science priorities identified by the committee and its Program Prioritization panels lead us to recommend several mid-term technology development programs to restore APRA to a level that is matched to the needs of the long-term program. In Chapter 7 we recommend specific technology programs in exoplanet, CMB, and UV instrumentation. In addition, we recommend an augmentation to general mid-term development efforts that would ramp up to by the end of the decade. Suborbital programs (balloons and rockets) are also critical in mid-term technology development. They both demonstrate scientific potential and test technologies in a space environment and are recommended in Chapter 7 for an augmentation. Long-Term Technology Development Long-term technology development builds the future of the space astrophysics program. It has become standard to achieve order-of-magnitude or more increases in capability with each generation of missions, and exciting science breakthroughs that have resulted from this. The only way to advance to the next capability without an exponential increase in mission costs is to find transformational new technological solutions. Some of the breakthroughs and advances have come from outside (such as microelectronics and near-IR detector arrays), but many of the technical needs of astrophysics are unique to the field, and their development must be supported from within. Examples of truly revolutionary technologies essential to existing and upcoming astrophysics missions that have been largely or entirely supported by NASA are X-ray imaging mirrors, X-ray microcalorimeters, and large arrays of submillimeter detectors. Future needs might include atomic laser gyros for pointing an X-ray interferometer, lightweight active mirror surfaces, new grating geometries, and novel techniques for PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 5-19
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
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Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
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DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
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activities 2 that have emerged from
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In addition to the 27 panel meeting
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
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The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
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APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
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light up the universe, marking the
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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
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TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
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Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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this imprint would both probe funda
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important outcome will be to open u
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estimated to be on the order of $20
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observatories. For NASA an annual b
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surveys of large fields, enabling s
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RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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departments and the community as a
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dominate spending; (2) private-publ
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us was certainly evident during the
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BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
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FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
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FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
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FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
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Most stars with masses smaller than
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BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
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send material raining into the cent
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BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
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Stars Stars are the most observable
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ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
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The Nature of Inflation As describe
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FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
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An important clue to the nature of
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Studying the properties of neutron
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FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
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partners and makes recommendations
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As astronomy research has blossomed
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
Page 90 and 91: TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
Page 92 and 93: 29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
Page 94 and 95: CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
Page 96 and 97: Space Observatories The Laser Inter
Page 98 and 99: Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
Page 101 and 102: 4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
Page 105 and 106: FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
Page 107 and 108: Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
Page 109 and 110: teaching the scientific method. The
Page 111 and 112: where the fraction of astronomers h
Page 113 and 114: Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
Page 115 and 116: 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
Page 117 and 118: FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
Page 119 and 120: Professional training needs to acco
Page 121: assistant and associate professor p
Page 124 and 125: fluctuating level of funding for as
Page 126 and 127: THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
Page 128 and 129: Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
Page 130 and 131: TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
Page 132 and 133: would normally be for a five-year p
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
Page 136 and 137: y optical and radio astronomers are
Page 138 and 139: FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
Page 142 and 143: nulling interferometry. The appropr
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
Page 146 and 147: RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
Page 148 and 149: FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
Page 150 and 151: FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
Page 154 and 155: TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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Page 158 and 159: etween several competing elements i
Page 161 and 162: 7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
Page 163 and 164: FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
Page 165 and 166: SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
Page 167 and 168: Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
Page 169 and 170: JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
Page 171 and 172: optical imaging of brighter galaxie
Page 173 and 174: Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
Page 175 and 176: FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
Page 177 and 178: Recommendations for New Space Activ
Page 179 and 180: FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
Page 181 and 182: significance of mergers in the buil
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Page 185 and 186: committee review. It could range be
Page 187 and 188: Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
Page 189 and 190: Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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