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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a balanced program is an overriding priority for attaining the overall science objectives that are at the core of the program recommended by the survey committee. More detailed guidance is provided in the report, but optimal implementation is the responsibility of agency managers. The small-scale projects recommended in Table ES.1 are unranked and are listed in alphabetical order. The highest-priority ground-based elements in the medium (Table ES.2) and large (Table ES.3) categories are listed in priority order, and the highest-priority space-based elements in the medium (Table ES.4) and large (Table ES.5) categories are also listed in priority order. All cost appraisals are in FY2010 dollars. TABLE ES.1 Space and Ground: Recommended Activities—Small Scale (Alphabetical Order) Recommendation Agency Science (Augmentation to) Advanced Technologies and Instrumentation (Augmentation to) Astronomy and Astrophysics Grants Program (Augmentation to) Astrophysics Theory Program (Definition of) a future UVoptical space capability (Augmentation to) the Gemini international partnership (Augmentation to) Intermediate Technology Development (Augmentation to) Laboratory Astrophysics (U.S. contribution to JAXAled) SPICA mission (Augmentation to) the Suborbital Program (Augmentation to) the Telescope System Instrument Program Theory and Computation Networks NSF NSF Broad; key opportunities in advanced instrumentation, especially adaptive optics and radio instrumentation Broad realization of science from observational, empirical, and theoretical investigations, including laboratory astrophysics Budget a (2012-2021) Page Reference $5M/year additional 7-39 $8M/year additional 7-39 NASA Broad $35M additional 7-26 NASA NSF NASA NASA NASA NASA NSF NASA NSF DOE Technology development benefiting a future ultraviolet telescope to study hot gas between galaxies, the interstellar medium, and exoplanets Increased U.S. share of Gemini; science opportunities include exoplanets, dark energy, and early-galaxy studies Broad; targeted at advancing the readiness of technologies at TRL 3 to 5 Basic nuclear, ionic, atomic, and molecular physics to support interpretation of data from JWST and future missions Understanding the birth of galaxies, stars, and planets; cycling of matter through the interstellar medium Broad, but including especially cosmic microwave background and particle astrophysics Optical-infrared investments to leverage privately operated telescopes and provide competitive access to U.S. community Broad; targeted at high-priority science through key projects $40M 7-26 $2M/year additional 7-39 $2M/year additional, increasing to $15M/year additional by 2021 7-26 $2M/year additional 7-27 $150M 7-25 $15M/year additional 7-27 $2.5M/year additional 7-39 $5M/year NASA $2.5M/year NSF $2M/year DOE a Recommended budgets are in FY2010 dollars and are committee-generated and based on available community input. 7-28 7-39 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ES-4
TABLE ES.2 Ground: Recommended Activities—Medium Scale Recommendation b Science Technical Risk c Appraisal of Costs Through Construction a (U.S. Federal Share 2012-2021) Appraisal of Federal Share of Annual Operations Costs d Page Reference CCAT - Science early 2020s - University-led, 33% federal share Submilimeter surveys enabling broad extragalactic, galactic, and outersolar-system science Medium $140M ($37M) $7.5M 7-37 a The survey’s construction-cost appraisal for CCAT is based on CATE analysis and project input, in FY2010 dollars. b The survey’s estimates of the schedule to first science are based on CATE analysis and project input. c The risk scale used was low, medium low, medium, medium high, and high. d The survey’s appraisal of operations costs, in FY2010 dollars, is based on project input. TABLE ES.3 Ground: Recommended Activities—Large Scale (Priority Order) Recommendation b Science Technical Risk c Appraisal of Costs Through Construction a (U.S. Federal Share 2012-2021) Appraisal of Annual Operations Costs d (U.S. Federal Share) Page Reference 1. LSST - Science late 2010s - NSF/DOE 2. Mid-Scale Innovations Program - Science mid-to-late 2010s 3. GSMT - Science mid 2020s - Immediate partner down-select for ~25% federal share 4. ACTA - Science early 2020s - NSF/DOE; U.S. join European CTA Dark energy, dark matter, time-variable phenomena, supernovas, Kuiper belt and near-Earth objects Broad science; peerreviewed program for projects that fall between the NSF MRI and MREFC limits Studies of the earliest galaxies, galactic evolution, detection and characterization of planetary systems Indirect detection of dark matter, particle acceleration and AGN science Medium low $465M ($421M) $42M ($28M) PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ES-5 7-29 N/A $93-200M 7-30 Medium to Medium high Medium low $1.1B to $1.4B ($257M - $350M) $400M ($100M) $36M to $55M ($9M to $14M) 7-32 Unknown 7-36 a The survey’s construction-cost appraisals for LSST, GSMT, and ACTA are based on CATE analysis and project input, in FY2010 dollars; cost appraisals for the Mid-Scale Innovations Program augmentation are committee-generated and based on available community input. For GSMT the cost appraisals are $1.1 billion for GMT and $1.4 billion for TMT. Construction costs for GSMT could continue into the next decade, at levels up to $95 million for the federal share. The share for the U.S. government is shown in parentheses where different from the total. b The survey’s estimates of the schedule to first science are based on CATE analysis and project input. c The risk scale used was low, medium low, medium, medium high, and high. d The survey’s appraisals for operations costs, in FY2010 dollars, are based on project input. The committee did not analyze these estimates in detail. For GSMT the range in operations costs is based on estimates from GMT ($36 million) and TMT ($55 million). The share for the U.S. government is shown in parentheses where different from the total.
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Page 4 and 5: THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
Page 7 and 8: COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
Page 9 and 10: Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
Page 11 and 12: DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
Page 13: SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
Page 16 and 17: activities 2 that have emerged from
Page 18 and 19: In addition to the 27 panel meeting
Page 20 and 21: Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
Page 22 and 23: The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
Page 24 and 25: APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
Page 26 and 27: light up the universe, marking the
Page 30 and 31: TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
Page 32 and 33: Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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Page 36 and 37: important outcome will be to open u
Page 38 and 39: estimated to be on the order of $20
Page 40 and 41: observatories. For NASA an annual b
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Page 44 and 45: RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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Page 74 and 75: The Nature of Inflation As describe
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An important clue to the nature of
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Studying the properties of neutron
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FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
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partners and makes recommendations
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As astronomy research has blossomed
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
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TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
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29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
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CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
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Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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assistant and associate professor p
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
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FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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y optical and radio astronomers are
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FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
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ated by the Program Prioritization
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nulling interferometry. The appropr
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FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
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RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
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FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
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FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
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FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
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TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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3. Investment in new and upgraded i
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etween several competing elements i
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7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
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FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
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SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
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Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
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optical imaging of brighter galaxie
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Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
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FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
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Recommendations for New Space Activ
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FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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significance of mergers in the buil
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independent advice committee review
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committee review. It could range be
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Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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