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FIGURE C‐4 Program S‐curve cost comparison. Costs match numbers presented in Figure A.3. Project estimates are in range of 10 to 15 percent probability that the project will finish at that low a cost. Costs in this figure are in FY2010 dollars and resulted from the survey’s CATE process as described. FIGURE C.5 Cost estimate for 100 percent versus notional 50 percent cost division between NASA and ESA for JDEM Omega, LISA and IXO missions. Cost numbers shown include approximate 25 percent foreign participation penalty. Costs in this figure are in FY2010 dollars. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION C-5
The results show excellent correlation between each other and to the existing mission data set, indicating that the contractor estimates are in family with respect to cost when compared to other successful missions of similar complexity. As would be expected, the 70 percent point is above the average (designated by the green line), basically representing the 50 percent mean for the data set. Similarly the NASA estimates fall near or below the mean, which is consistent with the S-curve results discussed above. This plot supports the conclusion that the contractor costs are reasonable and represent a realistic 70 percent confidence estimate based on the information provided for the assessment. FIGURE C‐6 JDEM Omega, LISA, and IXO missions plotted on Complexity versus Cost curve for 40 analogous missions shown as triangles. The green line represents the mean value for the 40 missions. The RED dots show the relative positions of the Kepler and JWST missions which are used as “anchoring end points” of known complexity and approximate cost. The upper and lower box for each mission represent the contractor CATE cost appraisal versus the Project estimate respectively. Note that the costs shown do not match the previous numbers since the costs for Phase A, Technology Development, Phase E, Launch Vehicle, and Launch Vehicle Threats, have been removed to allow for direct comparison to recent and historical missions of similar scope. Costs in this figure are in FY2010 dollars. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION C-6
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PREPUBLICATION COPY
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
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Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
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DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
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activities 2 that have emerged from
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In addition to the 27 panel meeting
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
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The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
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APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
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light up the universe, marking the
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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
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TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
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Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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this imprint would both probe funda
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important outcome will be to open u
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estimated to be on the order of $20
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observatories. For NASA an annual b
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surveys of large fields, enabling s
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RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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departments and the community as a
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dominate spending; (2) private-publ
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us was certainly evident during the
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BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
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FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
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FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
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FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
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Most stars with masses smaller than
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BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
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send material raining into the cent
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BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
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Stars Stars are the most observable
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ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
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The Nature of Inflation As describe
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FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
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An important clue to the nature of
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Studying the properties of neutron
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FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
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partners and makes recommendations
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As astronomy research has blossomed
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
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TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
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29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
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CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
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Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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assistant and associate professor p
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
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FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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y optical and radio astronomers are
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FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
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ated by the Program Prioritization
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nulling interferometry. The appropr
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FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
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RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
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FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
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FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
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FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
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TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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3. Investment in new and upgraded i
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etween several competing elements i
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7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
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FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
Page 165 and 166: SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
Page 167 and 168: Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
Page 169 and 170: JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
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Page 173 and 174: Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
Page 175 and 176: FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
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Page 179 and 180: FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
Page 181 and 182: significance of mergers in the buil
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Page 185 and 186: committee review. It could range be
Page 187 and 188: Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
Page 189 and 190: Recommendations for New Ground-Base
Page 191 and 192: Program for instrumentation and fac
Page 193 and 194: excel at high spectral and spatial
Page 195 and 196: The committee reviewed a technical
Page 197 and 198: FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
Page 199 and 200: Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
Page 201 and 202: LISA as soon as possible subject to
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Page 207 and 208: A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
Page 209 and 210: PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
Page 211 and 212: A preliminary recommended program w
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Page 219 and 220: $12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
Page 221 and 222: decadal research strategy with reco
Page 223 and 224: CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
Page 225 and 226: NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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