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important outcome will be to open up a new frontier of exoplanet studies by monitoring a large sample of stars in the central bulge of the Milky Way for changes in brightness due to microlensing by intervening solar systems. This census, combined with that made by the Kepler mission, will determine how common Earth-like planets are over a wide range of orbital parameters. It will also, in guest investigator mode, survey our galaxy and other nearby galaxies to answer key questions about their formation and structure, and the data it obtains will provide fundamental constraints on how galaxies grow. The telescope exploits the important work done by the joint DOE/NASA design team on the Joint Dark Energy Mission— specifically the JDEM Omega concept—and expands its scientific reach. WFIRST is based on mature technologies with technical risk that is medium low and has medium cost and schedule risk. The independent cost appraisal is $1.6 billion, not including the guest investigator program. As a telescope capable of imaging a large area of the sky, WFIRST will complement the targeted infrared observations of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The small field of view of JWST would render it incapable of carrying out the prime WFIRST program of dark energy and exoplanet studies, even if it were used exclusively for this task. The recommended schedule has a launch data of 2020 with a 5-year baseline mission. An extended 10-year mission could improve the statistical results and further broaden the science program. The European Space Agency (ESA) is considering an M-class proposal, called Euclid, with related goals. Collaboration on a combined mission with the United States playing a leading role should be considered so long as the committee’s recommended science program is preserved and overall cost savings result. WFIRST addresses fundamental and pressing scientific questions and will contribute to a broad range of astrophysics. It complements the committee’s proposed ground-based program in two key science areas: dark energy science and the study of exoplanets. It is a part of coordinated and synergistic programs in fields in which the United States has pioneered the progress to date. It presents opportunities for interagency and perhaps international collaboration that would tap complementary experience and skills. It also presents relatively low technical and cost risk, making its completion feasible within the decade, even in a constrained budgetary environment. For all these reasons it is the committee’s toppriority recommendation for a space mission. Explorer Program Augmentation The Explorer program supports small and medium-size missions, selected through competitive peer review, that are developed and launched on roughly 5-year timescales. The Explorer program enables rapid responses to new discoveries and provides platforms for targeted investigations essential to the breadth of NASA’s astrophysics program. Explorers have delivered a scientific return on investment at the highest level over the past two decades. The three astrophysics mid-scale Explorer (MIDEX) missions launched to date—the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), Swift, and the Wide- Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)—have provided high-impact science for a combined cost significantly less than that of a single flagship mission. 4 WMAP, launched just 5 years after the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) discovered that the cosmic microwave background (CMB) has measurable fluctuations, demonstrated that these tiny variations imprint precise information about the early universe. WMAP is credited with obtaining the best measurements of the age, geometry, and content of the universe. The Swift mission has transformed understanding of explosive gamma-ray burst events, and it holds the record for detecting the most distant object in the universe. The WISE mid-infrared survey, extending over the entire sky, is studying the coolest stars, the universe’s most luminous galaxies, and some of the dimmest near-Earth asteroids and comets. Smaller-scale SMEX missions, as well as Mission of Opportunity contributions to non-NASA missions, have made essential advances in understanding of phenomena ranging from the explosive release of energy in flares on the Sun (with the Reuven Ramaty 4 According to NASA the combined development cost (not including operations) for WMAP, Swift and WISE was $590 million (RY), about 50 percent the cost of a single past NASA Great Observatory. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 1-6
High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager) to the assembly of galaxies (with the Galaxy Evolution Explorer). The promise of future Explorer missions is as great as ever, and this program will be essential to enabling new opportunities, and to maintaining breadth and vibrancy in NASA’s astrophysics portfolio in a time of budgetary stress. This survey recommends that the annual budget of the astrophysics component of the Explorer program be increased from $40 million to $100 million by 2015. The categorization of the recommended Explorer program augmentation as a large-category activity reflects the total cost of the augmentation for the decade 2012-2021, and its high ranking is motivated by the committee’s view that expanding the Explorer program is a very effective way to maximize scientific progress for a given outlay. Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) LISA employs three separated spacecraft to detect long-wavelength ripples in the fabric of spacetime, thereby opening a new window on the universe. LISA will detect the mergers of black holes with masses ranging from 10,000 to 10 million solar masses at cosmological distances, and will make a census of compact binary systems throughout the Milky Way. LISA promises new discoveries as well as progress on central questions such as understanding the growth of galaxies and black holes. LISA will also test general relativity with exquisite precision in regimes inaccessible on Earth. LISA complements the search for gravitational radiation being made at shorter wavelengths by the ground-based Advanced LIGO. LISA is a partnership with ESA, and so its schedule is dependent on ESA’s selection of the next L-class mission opportunity—LISA is one of three contenders for this opportunity. LISA’s key technologies will be demonstrated on the ESA-led LISA Pathfinder mission, due for launch in 2012. With the success of Pathfinder and a decision by ESA to move forward, LISA could launch by 2025. Independent review found LISA’s technical risk, assuming Pathfinder success, to be medium, and the NASA appraised cost, based on a 50 percent participation and including the costs of partnering at such a level, to be $1.4 billion. The cost and schedule risk classification is medium high. If Pathfinder is not a success or if a roughly equal partnership is not possible, the committee recommends that NASA request advice from a decadal survey implementation advisory committee (DSIAC) to review the situation middecade. LISA presents a compelling scientific opportunity, and there is readiness to address its remaining technical challenges. Overall the recommendation and prioritization for LISA reflect its compelling science case and the relative level of technical readiness. International X-ray Observatory (IXO) IXO is a versatile, large-area, high-spectral-resolution X-ray telescope that will make great advances on broad fronts ranging from characterization of black holes to elucidation of cosmology and the life cycles of matter and energy in the cosmos. Central to many of the science questions identified by this survey, IXO will revolutionize high-energy astrophysics with more than an-order-of-magnitude improvement in capabilities. IXO is a partnership among NASA, ESA, and the Japanese space agency (JAXA), and, like LISA, it is a candidate for the next L-class ESA launch opportunity. On the basis of a 50 percent participation, it has an appraised cost to NASA, including the cost of partnering, of $3.1 billion, and the cost and schedule risk is medium high. The technical risk is also medium high. Cost threats and uncertainties due to the immaturity of some of the required technologies have added considerably to the cost appraisal. The budget profiles used by the committee to define an overall program are unlikely to permit a start before the end of the decade—allowing time for the necessary technology maturation and risk reduction. However, this situation does not diminish the committee’s assessment of the importance of the discoveries that IXO would make. Because of IXO’s high scientific importance, a technology development program is recommended this decade with sufficient resources— PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 1-7
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Page 4 and 5: THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
Page 7 and 8: COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
Page 9 and 10: Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
Page 11 and 12: DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
Page 13: SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
Page 16 and 17: activities 2 that have emerged from
Page 18 and 19: In addition to the 27 panel meeting
Page 20 and 21: Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
Page 22 and 23: The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
Page 24 and 25: APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
Page 26 and 27: light up the universe, marking the
Page 28 and 29: RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
Page 30 and 31: TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
Page 32 and 33: Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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Page 40 and 41: observatories. For NASA an annual b
Page 42 and 43: surveys of large fields, enabling s
Page 44 and 45: RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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Page 52 and 53: BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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Page 60 and 61: FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
Page 62 and 63: Most stars with masses smaller than
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Page 68 and 69: BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
Page 70 and 71: Stars Stars are the most observable
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Page 74 and 75: The Nature of Inflation As describe
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As astronomy research has blossomed
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are increasingly relevant. The Euro
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TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
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29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
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CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
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Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
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FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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y optical and radio astronomers are
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FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
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ated by the Program Prioritization
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nulling interferometry. The appropr
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FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
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RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
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FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
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FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
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FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
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TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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3. Investment in new and upgraded i
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etween several competing elements i
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7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
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FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
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SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
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Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
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optical imaging of brighter galaxie
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Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
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FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
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Recommendations for New Space Activ
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FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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significance of mergers in the buil
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independent advice committee review
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committee review. It could range be
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Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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