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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysics and cosmology theory PROGRAM Budget (M $) NSF/AST Astronomy and Astrophysics Grants 15.1 NSF other (AAPF, CAREER, Cyberinfrastructure, etc.) 5.3 NSF/PHY Astrophysics and Cosmology Theory 1.2 NSF/PHY Physics Frontier Centers (several) NASA/AD Astrophysics Theory Program 12.4 NASA/AD Great Observatories GO Programs 2.2 DOE Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing 0.7 DOE/High Energy Physics Theory 10 DOE/Nuclear Physics Theory 3 Individual Investigator Programs in Theory and Computation Astrophysical theory is intellectually vibrant: productivity is high, with about 45% of published papers being on theory; about one-third of publishing astronomers are pursuing theory (see Figure 4-9). Based upon the recent record, there is a compelling case that investments in theory by the agencies will be amply repaid in the form of new mission and experiment concepts and enhanced scientific return from operating facilities. Astrophysical theory draws some of the world’s best intellectual talent into the U.S. scientific enterprise. Some of the most important theory contributions in the next decade will come from broadly based theory not specifically tied to large activities, so that the role of general individual investigator programs will continue to be as important as ever. These programs form the ‘traditional base’ of theoretical astrophysics in which PhD students are trained, new ideas arise, and future observational or experimental efforts seeded. Astrophysics and cosmology theory is supported through a number of programs at the federal agencies. At the NSF, general astrophysics theory is funded through the AST Astronomy and Astrophysics Research Grants (AAG) program 5 , as well as through NSF PHY via its Frontier Centers and individual investigator grants in cosmology and particle physics theory. At NASA, the Astrophysics Theory Program (ATP) supports most general theory efforts. In addition, the Hubble, Spitzer, Chandra, and Fermi Observatories accept theoretical investigations as part of their guest investigator programs. Other critical support comes from NASA Prize Postdoctoral Fellowship programs (Einstein, Hubble, Sagan). The DOE Division of High Energy Physics also supports theoretical and computational astrophysics efforts. Table 5-2 summarizes current funding levels. As is the case with the grants programs in general, proposal success rates in theory have declined over the past decade. Recent success rate in NASA’s ATP is only 15-20%, significantly lower than funding rates for theory within its Planetary Exploration program, for example. Given the central importance of theory to the enterprise, and the crucial role played by individual investigator grants, we have recommended in Chapter 7 that the grants programs at both NSF and NASA be augmented. The Rapid Rise of Astrophysical Computing The dramatic impact of computation on astronomy and astrophysics is manifested in many ways. Modern numerical codes are now being used to simulate and understand the formation of structure in the 5 The financial support for theory within the NSF AST AAG program is roughly 7 percent of the total AST budget and, for comparison, about ten percent of both the NSF PHY and DOE Particle Astrophysics budgets. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 5-8
universe, the explosion of massive stars, the evolution of our solar system over billions or trillions of years, and how a complex experiment works. They are also essential to processing astronomical images whose sizes now exceed one billion bytes (a gigabyte) into data that are usable by the astronomical community. The largest codes may have in excess of a million lines and run on supercomputers that have more than 100,000 cores, generating datasets that occupy one trillion bytes (a terabyte) of storage. These codes are now an indispensable part of the astronomical enterprise. However, they often require teams -- scientists, computer professionals, applied mathematicians, and algorithm specialists -- to create, maintain, and constantly develop them. NSF, NASA, and DOE have made substantial investments in high performance computing (HPC) over the last decade, making available close to a petaflop of sustained compute power to the astrophysics community. Such facilities enable cutting-edge theoretical calculations and analyses that push the astrophysics frontier. Future progress in supercomputer power will come from further parallelization, with the largest systems evolving from 10 4 -10 5 processor cores today to perhaps 10 8 -10 9 cores by the end of the decade 6 . These capabilities will enable qualitatively new physical modeling 7 . Exploiting the new computer systems will require new software codes and sustained support for focused research groups. At the same time, strategic balance should be maintained between investment in HPC and hardware resources for individual investigators and University-department-scale clusters, which are critical for exploratory and smaller-scale projects and for training of students. Research Networks in Theoretical and Computational Astrophysics A large number of the theoretical challenges posed by the Science Frontier Panels are of a scale and complexity that require sustained, multi-institutional collaborations of theorists, computational astrophysicists, observers and experimenters. There is currently no mechanism to support these coordinated efforts at the required level in the US; however, successful models for such coordinated efforts exist in Europe 8 . Opportunities used to exist for such medium-scale group efforts in the NASA ATP program, but more recently ATP has been focused on individuals and small single-institution groups. Appropriately focused and led research collaborations and networks are “efforts of scale” that can make long-term investments in personnel, computing, and scientific networking uniquely effective in tackling some of the most difficult problems in modern astrophysics. RECOMMENDATION: A new program of Research Networks in Theoretical and Computational Astrophysics as discussed in Chapter 7 should be funded by DOE, NASA, and NSF. The program would support research in six to eight focus areas that cover major theoretical questions raised by the survey Science Frontier Panels. The networks would be devoted to a specific problem or topic that is believed to be ripe for a breakthrough within five years. Selection criteria would include the degree of cross-institutional synergy in the network and its planned role in training and mentoring the next generation of researchers. Funding 6 Such large increases in processing capability carry implications for the amount of power and cooling that will be necessary. On the presumption that the total power usage cannot increase significantly in a “green” computing future, major advances in chip design and special purpose software will be necessary. 7 Simulations in cosmological structure formation, galaxy formation, stellar evolution, supernova explosions, gamma ray bursts, star formation, planet formation, and high-energy particle acceleration, are just a few example areas. 8 As an example, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (The German Research Foundation) has established “Priority Programs” that enable large coordinated theory efforts. An example of a recently established Priority Program is “Witnesses to Cosmic History: Formation and evolution of galaxies, black holes, and their environment”. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 5-9
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
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Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
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DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
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activities 2 that have emerged from
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In addition to the 27 panel meeting
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
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The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
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APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
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light up the universe, marking the
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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
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TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
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Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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this imprint would both probe funda
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important outcome will be to open u
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estimated to be on the order of $20
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observatories. For NASA an annual b
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surveys of large fields, enabling s
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RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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departments and the community as a
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dominate spending; (2) private-publ
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us was certainly evident during the
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BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
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FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
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FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
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FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
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Most stars with masses smaller than
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BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
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send material raining into the cent
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BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
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Stars Stars are the most observable
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ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
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The Nature of Inflation As describe
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FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
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An important clue to the nature of
Page 80 and 81: Studying the properties of neutron
Page 82 and 83: FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
Page 84 and 85: partners and makes recommendations
Page 86 and 87: As astronomy research has blossomed
Page 88 and 89: are increasingly relevant. The Euro
Page 90 and 91: TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
Page 92 and 93: 29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
Page 94 and 95: CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
Page 96 and 97: Space Observatories The Laser Inter
Page 98 and 99: Physics Division (PHY); the Mathema
Page 101 and 102: 4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
Page 105 and 106: FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
Page 107 and 108: Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
Page 109 and 110: teaching the scientific method. The
Page 111 and 112: where the fraction of astronomers h
Page 113 and 114: Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
Page 115 and 116: 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
Page 117 and 118: FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
Page 119 and 120: Professional training needs to acco
Page 121: assistant and associate professor p
Page 124 and 125: fluctuating level of funding for as
Page 126 and 127: THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
Page 128 and 129: Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
Page 132 and 133: would normally be for a five-year p
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
Page 136 and 137: y optical and radio astronomers are
Page 138 and 139: FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
Page 140 and 141: ated by the Program Prioritization
Page 142 and 143: nulling interferometry. The appropr
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
Page 146 and 147: RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
Page 148 and 149: FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
Page 150 and 151: FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
Page 154 and 155: TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
Page 156 and 157: 3. Investment in new and upgraded i
Page 158 and 159: etween several competing elements i
Page 161 and 162: 7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
Page 163 and 164: FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
Page 165 and 166: SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
Page 167 and 168: Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
Page 169 and 170: JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
Page 171 and 172: optical imaging of brighter galaxie
Page 173 and 174: Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
Page 175 and 176: FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
Page 177 and 178: Recommendations for New Space Activ
Page 179 and 180: FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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significance of mergers in the buil
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independent advice committee review
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committee review. It could range be
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Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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