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India: Effects of Tariffs and Nontariff Measures on U.S. ... - USITC

India: Effects of Tariffs and Nontariff Measures on U.S. ... - USITC

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TABLE ES.4 <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g>: Simulated effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> removing <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g>n tariffs <strong>on</strong> selected U.S. food <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> agricultural exports, 2007<br />

Items Average tariff rate Simulated change in U.S. exports<br />

Percent Milli<strong>on</strong> $<br />

Alm<strong>on</strong>ds, fresh or dried, inshell 20 27–33<br />

Soybean oil 40 17–22<br />

Fresh apples 50 17–21<br />

Cott<strong>on</strong> 10 3–26<br />

Fresh grapes 30 4–5<br />

All other ( a ) 132–184<br />

Total 24 200–291<br />

Source: Commissi<strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic modeling simulati<strong>on</strong>s.<br />

a Not applicable<br />

In the absence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g>n tariffs <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the span <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a few years, U.S. exports could exp<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

more rapidly than modeling simulati<strong>on</strong>s indicate because <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the possible additi<strong>on</strong>al<br />

effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> ec<strong>on</strong>omic growth in <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> market development by U.S. exporters, two<br />

factors not included in the simulati<strong>on</strong>.<br />

Ec<strong>on</strong>omic simulati<strong>on</strong>s suggest that <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g>n NTMs restricted U.S. exports <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> wheat by<br />

more than $146 milli<strong>on</strong> in 2007.<br />

Ec<strong>on</strong>omic simulati<strong>on</strong>s were c<strong>on</strong>ducted <strong>on</strong> a set <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> U.S. agricultural product sectors for<br />

which (1) <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g>n import prices were higher than world prices <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> (2) Commissi<strong>on</strong><br />

research indicated that specific NTMs were impeding U.S. agricultural exports. These<br />

sectors include dairy products (lactose, whey products, <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> n<strong>on</strong>fat dry milk); beverages<br />

(wine <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> spirits); cereal grains, other than wheat (corn <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> other grains); <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> meat<br />

products (pork <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> poultry), which have positive NTM price gaps. Simulati<strong>on</strong>s were also<br />

c<strong>on</strong>ducted for wheat, for which U.S. exports to the world are large but U.S. exports to<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g> were zero in 2007 owing to NTM restricti<strong>on</strong>s. The estimated increase in U.S.<br />

exports <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> wheat following removal <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g>n NTMs would have been $146–334 milli<strong>on</strong><br />

in 2007. The increase in other U.S. exports following NTM removal would have been<br />

significantly smaller (table ES.5).<br />

TABLE ES.5 <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g>: Simulated effects <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> removing certain NTMs <strong>on</strong> selected U.S. food <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> agricultural exports,<br />

2007<br />

Items Estimated tariff equivalent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> NTMs Simulated change in U.S. exports<br />

Percent Milli<strong>on</strong> $<br />

Wheat ( a ) 146–334<br />

Dairy products 27 15–20<br />

Beverages 75 6–9<br />

Other cereal grains b 151 2–8<br />

Meat products 8 0.08–0.10<br />

Source: Commissi<strong>on</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic modeling simulati<strong>on</strong>s.<br />

a Because there were no U.S. wheat exports to <str<strong>on</strong>g>India</str<strong>on</strong>g> in the 2007 base year, there is no estimated tariff<br />

equivalent.<br />

b Grains other than wheat <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> rice, such as corn, sorghum, <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> oats.<br />

vii

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