19.01.2015 Views

Statistics for Decision- Making in Business - Maricopa Community ...

Statistics for Decision- Making in Business - Maricopa Community ...

Statistics for Decision- Making in Business - Maricopa Community ...

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

But, how do we do so if there exists variability from one sample to the next This chapter will<br />

address this question<br />

7.1 The Concept Beh<strong>in</strong>d Hypothesis Test<strong>in</strong>g<br />

So, you have a research question… what now The question might at first seem obvious: let‟s<br />

run a study. This question, however, needs some special treatment be<strong>for</strong>e anyth<strong>in</strong>g else happens,<br />

especially if the study comes at a significant cost.<br />

For <strong>in</strong>stance, suppose we‟re <strong>in</strong>terested <strong>in</strong> determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g whether pesticides damage the soil <strong>in</strong><br />

which we grow the majority of our food. This is a loaded curiosity. We first need to fully def<strong>in</strong>e<br />

how it is that we would conduct such a study. For <strong>in</strong>stance, will be compar<strong>in</strong>g two regions, one<br />

that has been sprayed with pesticides and one that hasn‟t been sprayed What is it, exactly, that<br />

we will measure <strong>in</strong> order determ<strong>in</strong>e the level of soil damage<br />

First and <strong>for</strong>emost, we need to <strong>for</strong>mulate a hypothesis, or a belief about what it is that we expect<br />

to see. For example,<br />

Our hypothesis is that pesticides <strong>in</strong>flict serious damage on sprayed soils<br />

Great, so we know what we believe. Did we just state what we wanted to happen Probably not.<br />

We‟ll usually <strong>for</strong>mulate a hypothesis based on some exist<strong>in</strong>g observations. Perhaps we‟re see<strong>in</strong>g<br />

that plants aren‟t produc<strong>in</strong>g as many edibles as previously thought. Or, maybe we‟re f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g<br />

ris<strong>in</strong>g levels of cancers. (By the way, all of the above are becom<strong>in</strong>g em<strong>in</strong>ent public concerns <strong>in</strong><br />

the U.S. and beyond.) So, based on these observations, we‟re <strong>for</strong>m<strong>in</strong>g an educated belief on the<br />

effect of pesticides.<br />

The next critical question:<br />

How will we measure “soil damage”<br />

This can be a controversial question and may lack a consensus of an answer. Will it be measured<br />

by the quantities of beneficial microbes present <strong>in</strong> the soil By the soil‟s pH level By the<br />

amount of nitrogen it conta<strong>in</strong>s<br />

However we choose to measure “soil damage,” we want to be sure that we are be<strong>in</strong>g accurate.<br />

That is, we need to be sure that we are actually measur<strong>in</strong>g what we say we‟re measur<strong>in</strong>g. This<br />

sounds <strong>in</strong>fantile, but it happens all the time that researchers say they‟re measur<strong>in</strong>g someth<strong>in</strong>g that<br />

they‟re not actually measur<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

So, suppose we do some research and conclude that we test <strong>for</strong> soil damage by determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g the<br />

weight of vegetables harvested from these plants and compar<strong>in</strong>g the average weight per plant <strong>for</strong><br />

the experimental group (some determ<strong>in</strong>ed quantity of pesticides sprayed). We f<strong>in</strong>d that healthy<br />

plants produce about 30 lbs. of some vegetable across their seasonal life span. Will the average<br />

plant yield <strong>for</strong> plants sprayed with pesticides be lower<br />

<strong>Statistics</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Decision</strong>-<strong>Mak<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>in</strong> Bus<strong>in</strong>ess © Milos Podmanik Page 208

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!