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Structure of a Hypothesis Test The following should be included in all hypothesis tests: 1. A statement of competing hypotheses ( vs. ) 2. A decision rule for rejecting (based on ) 3. A decision criterion rule (the physical value of the random variable that represents the required “extremeness” of our observed sample value. 4. A conclusion statement (what the sample data tells you to conclude) As an important note: we never say, “accept as true.” Instead, we remain accurate and say that there is simply not enough evidence to reject it. Think about this as “innocent,” vs. “not guilty.” Just because a court cannot prove that someone is guilty, they don‟t say that he is innocent. Instead, they give the verdict of “not guilty.” Homework Problems – 7.1 1. In your own words, explain the difference between the null and alternative hypotheses. Also, explain how to identify each in a research study. 2. Explain why we assume that the null hypothesis is true before testing a hypothesis. 3. It is believed that 7% ( ) of an organic corn crop is lost to insect infestations. An organic farmer has devised a system that may result in less insect destruction. He would like to test this idea with a hypothesis test. Write the competing hypotheses. 4. A high school statistics class typically gets an average of scores out of 5 on an Advanced Placement (AP) exam. Over the recent several years, he has found that his students‟ scores were higher. He would like to test this hypothesis. Write the competing hypotheses. 5. A snack dispenser has a failure rate of over a 5-year span. After changes to the machine, the manufacturer would like to know whether or not this has changed. Write competing hypotheses. 6. What does it mean to say that when describing a Type I error 7. Based on the “Structure of a Hypothesis Test” blue box, fully describe the hypothesis test for the scenario in question 3, assuming and that he finds that only 52 out of 1000 bushels of his crop are lost to insect infestations. 8. Based on the “Structure of a Hypothesis Test” blue box, fully describe the hypothesis test for the scenario in question 4, assuming and that he finds his students have been averaging ̅ on the test. Statistics for Decision-Making in Business © Milos Podmanik Page 218
9. Based on the “Structure of a Hypothesis Test” blue box, fully describe the hypothesis test for the scenario in question 5, assuming and that she finds the failure rate is 16 out of 1000 machines. 10. In real-world terms, describe what Type I and II errors would mean for each of questions 3, 4, and 5. 11. Why does the risk of a Type II error increase as we decrease Statistics for Decision-Making in Business © Milos Podmanik Page 219
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Statistics for Decision- Making in
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A Note to Students This book is far
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6.3 Confidence Interval for ̂ 202
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which has undergone no additional r
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of transporting such an animal. Not
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Although far from last, we will con
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Account Type Revenue ($) New $5,296
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For the present time, we‟ll proce
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Row Labels Average of Revenue ($) M
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(SOURCE: Essentials of Modern Busin
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1.3Statistics in Excel When conduct
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We can make it a bit more presentab
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For measures such as the range, Exc
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We get: We can do the same for Old.
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Chapter 2 Visual Representations of
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We now have to enter a formula for
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We know from the data that this val
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Alternatively, it is possible to in
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16 14 12 10 8 6 Series1 4 2 0 SD D
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Selected the copied graph. In Chart
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2. The following data represents pe
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Frequency 2.2 Visualizing Quantitat
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You can either choose to have Excel
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If we had additional variables, the
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Select PivotChart and select the fi
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Frequency To make solid black lines
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Relative Frequency Histogram of Cal
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a. Using Excel, find the mean and r
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̅ ̅ account for this discrepancy,
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2.3.2 Percentile Another useful too
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2.3.4 Rank What if, on the other ha
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Check the “Analysis ToolPak” an
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You‟ll immediately notice that a
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̅ 2.4 Descriptive Statistics - Var
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√ ∑( ̅) √ √ This is what w
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This gives us a nice measure of how
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We can immediately see the mean and
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Lastly, a normal curve is the most
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Frequency ̅ Histogram of TV's Owne
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58.3 34.6 35.5 45.4 38.6 63.8 53.9
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Chapter 3 Probability and Decision
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Proportion of Rainy Days 1.2 Propor
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This means that if samples of HFCS
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Are we confident in accusing a lung
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3.2 Joint Probability In the previo
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Company 1 Choices Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N
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There is less than a 1% chance that
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We can now see that the situation i
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sequence, one ball is chose at rand
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3.3 Probability of Unions Imagine t
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Physical .20 .10 .30 Mental .40 .30
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SOLUTION: We first arrange this inf
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Homework Problems - 3.3 1. A gaming
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3.4 Conditional Probability In many
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) : The Arizona Cardinals make it t
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We could just as well have written,
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That is, the probability that the c
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This can happen in one of two ways:
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f. All numerical red cards are remo
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3.5 Combinations and Permutations R
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1 st Bushel 2 nd Bushel U1 U1 U2 U2
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Which, in its final state gives: Th
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Combination - Order Does NOT Matter
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( ) There is only a .9% chance that
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1. Are repeats/replacements allowed
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Object 4 Object 5 Also notice that
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e. 2. Your classmate was absent whe
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3.6 Expected Value Imagine that you
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An expected value is actually not s
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Where The expected value is: , - (
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SOLUTION: We first note that there
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Probability 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
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Statistics for Decision-Making in B
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For men, we see that the most frequ
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So, we had 10 trials and wanted to
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Example 1: A fair-two sided coin is
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( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Example 2: A fair,
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Expected Value of a Binomial Random
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f. What is the probability that g.
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Probability For instance, we see th
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Density 0.25 Time Speng Waiting in
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Suppose we wish to find ( ), that i
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Density Resulting in a standard dev
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Page 169 and 170: a. What is the probability that the
Page 171 and 172: Statistics for Decision-Making in B
Page 173 and 174: As you can see, this is a difficult
Page 175 and 176: We wish to know the area of the sha
Page 177 and 178: We can easily find that the probabi
Page 179 and 180: In the second section, we can check
Page 181 and 182: Chapter 6 Sampling Distributions an
Page 183 and 184: Thus, the standard deviation would
Page 185 and 186: 1.7 to 1.8 1.8 to 1.9 1.9 to 2 2 to
Page 187 and 188: 2.4 to 2.5 2.5 to 2.6 2.6 to 2.7 2.
Page 189 and 190: The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) has
Page 191 and 192: can set this up in our applet by ha
Page 193 and 194: 3) We cannot use this sample to cal
Page 195 and 196: Thus, we need to find the lower and
Page 197 and 198: We see that the standard deviation
Page 199 and 200: √ The lower limit is: √ And the
Page 201 and 202: following data was collected on the
Page 203 and 204: { So, we have a set of twenty 1‟s
Page 205 and 206: DULY CAUTIONED: The assumptions her
Page 207 and 208: Homework Problems -6.2 1. In a samp
Page 209 and 210: Since this is a mathematical questi
Page 211 and 212: Example 3: Many older homes have el
Page 213 and 214: Hypothesis Test Conclusion Test Say
Page 215 and 216: Hypothesis Test Conclusion Since yo
Page 217: SOLUTION: d. A generic conclusion s
Page 221 and 222: 1.2 Descriptive VS. Inferential Sta
Page 223 and 224: Relative Frequency 35% 30% 25% 20%
Page 225 and 226: Symmetric: 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10
Page 227 and 228: Repair Cost Mean 971 Standard Error
Page 229 and 230: el freq Nitrous Oxide (thous. Tons)
Page 231 and 232: Probability Pizza Size Distribution
Page 233 and 234: e. ( ) f. ; the average response ti
Page 235 and 236: 2. a. The long-run proportion of al
Page 237 and 238: e. 20% of all children are expected
Page 239 and 240: e. The middle 50% score between abo
Page 241 and 242: 5. b. This might indicate that the
Page 243 and 244: ̅ We have that ̅ and √ . So our
Page 245 and 246: 6. This is the probability that we
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