Producer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice ... - METAC

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Producer Price Index Manual Figure 22.6. Lowe and Normalized Rothwell Indices 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Index 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 Plo PLO Pnr P NR 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Months Figure 22.7a. Seasonally Adjusted Lowe, Young, Geometric Laspeyres, and Centered Rolling Indices 1.5 1.4 Index 1.3 1.2 Plosa P Pysa PYSA Pglsa P Pcry P LOSA GLSA CRY 1.1 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Months 586
22. Treatment of Seasonal Products Table 22.25. Lowe with Carryforward Prices, Normalized Rothwell, and Rothwell Indices Year Month P LO P NR P R 1970 12 1.0000 1.0000 0.9750 1971 1 1.0554 1.0571 1.0306 2 1.0711 1.0234 0.9978 3 1.1500 1.0326 1.0068 4 1.2251 1.1288 1.1006 5 1.3489 1.3046 1.2720 6 1.4428 1.2073 1.1771 7 1.3789 1.2635 1.2319 8 1.3378 1.2305 1.1997 9 1.1952 1.0531 1.0268 10 1.1543 1.0335 1.0077 11 1.1639 1.1432 1.1146 12 1.0824 1.0849 1.0577 1972 1 1.1370 1.1500 1.1212 2 1.1731 1.1504 1.1216 3 1.2455 1.1752 1.1459 4 1.3155 1.2561 1.2247 5 1.4262 1.4245 1.3889 6 1.5790 1.3064 1.2737 7 1.5297 1.4071 1.3719 8 1.4416 1.3495 1.3158 9 1.3038 1.1090 1.0813 10 1.2752 1.1197 1.0917 11 1.2852 1.2714 1.2396 12 1.1844 1.1960 1.1661 1973 1 1.2427 1.2664 1.2348 2 1.3003 1.2971 1.2647 3 1.3699 1.3467 1.3130 4 1.4691 1.4658 1.4292 5 1.5972 1.6491 1.6078 6 1.8480 1.4987 1.4612 7 1.7706 1.6569 1.6155 8 1.6779 1.6306 1.5898 9 1.5253 1.2683 1.2366 10 1.5371 1.3331 1.2998 11 1.5634 1.5652 1.5261 12 1.4181 1.4505 1.4143 These three seasonally adjusted annual basket-type indices are listed in Table 22.26, along with the target index, the centered rolling-year index, P CRY . In addition, one could seasonally adjust the original Lowe, Young, and geometric Laspeyres indices using a standard seasonal adjustment procedure such as X-11. Table 22.26 also contains Lowe, Young, and geometric Laspeyres series that have been seasonally adjusted using the X-11 multiplicative model with default settings. 49 The series have been normalized to set December 1970 = 1.0. They are labeled P LOx11 , P Yx11 , and P GLx11 , respectively. 22.91 The first four series in Table 22.26 coincide for their first 12 observations, which follows from the way the seasonally adjusted series were defined. Also, the last six observations are missing for the centered rolling-year series, P CRY , because data for the first six months of 1974 would be required to calculate all of these index values. Note that from December 1971 to December 1973, the three seasonally adjusted annual basket-type indices (P LOSA , P YSA , and P GLSA ) can be used to predict the corresponding centered rolling-year entries; see Figure 22.7a for plots of these predictions. What is remarkable in Table 22.26 and Figure 22.7a is that the predicted values of these seasonally adjusted series are fairly close to the corresponding target index values. 50 This result is somewhat unexpected since the annual basket indices use price information for only two consecutive months, whereas the corresponding centered rolling-year index uses price information for some 25 months! 51 It should also be noted that the seasonally adjusted geometric Laspeyres index is generally the best predictor of the corresponding rolling-year index for this data set. In viewing Figure 22.7a, for the first few 49 Many statistical offices have access to moving average seasonal adjustment programs such as the X-11 system developed by the U.S. Census Bureau and Statistics Canada. The seasonal adjustment performed here ran the data through the multiplicative version of X-11. 50 For observations 13 through 31, one can regress the seasonally adjusted series on the centered rolling-year series. For the seasonally adjusted Lowe index, an R 2 of 0.8816 is obtained; for the seasonally adjusted Young index, an R 2 of 0.9212 is derived and for the seasonally adjusted geometric Laspeyres index, an R 2 of 0.9423 is derived. These fits are not as good as the fit obtained in Section F above where the seasonally adjusted approximate rolling-year index was used to predict the fixed-base Laspeyres rolling-year index. This R 2 was 0.9662; recall the discussion around Table 22.20. 51 However, for seasonal data sets that are not as regular as the modified Turvey data set, the predictive power of the seasonally adjusted annual basket-type indices may be considerably less; that is, if there are abrupt changes in the seasonal pattern of prices, one could not expect these monthto-month indices to accurately predict a rolling-year index. 587
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Contents Foreword..................
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Contents D. The Incorporating of Ne
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Contents E. Industry Price Indices
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Contents Table 19.23 Manufacturing
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Foreword This Producer Price Index
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Preface The ILO, IMF, OECD, UNECE,
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Preface source (rather than requiri
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Preface tremendous concern with sam
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Preface among countries. However, t
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Preface Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter
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Reader’s Guide International manu
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Reader’s Guide the System of Nati
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Abbreviations ABS ABS AF ANZIC ATM
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Abbreviations OLS Ottawa Group P C
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PART I Methods, Uses, and Coverage
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Producer Price Index Manual The exp
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Producer Price Index Manual B.1 Pri
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Producer Price Index Manual and qua
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Producer Price Index Manual B.2 The
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Producer Price Index Manual D. The
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Producer Price Index Manual also ar
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Producer Price Index Manual theoret
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Producer Price Index Manual Laspeyr
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Producer Price Index Manual treated
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Producer Price Index Manual C. Geog
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Producer Price Index Manual improve
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PART II Compilation Issues
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Producer Price Index Manual C. Appr
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Producer Price Index Manual Figure
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Producer Price Index Manual sizes f
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Producer Price Index Manual source
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Producer Price Index Manual prices
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5. Sampling Issues in Price Collect
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Producer Price Index Manual tory su
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Producer Price Index Manual D.1.2 C
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Producer Price Index Manual Table 5
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Producer Price Index Manual RESPOND
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7. Treatment of Quality Change A. I
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Producer Price Index Manual 7.12 Co
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Producer Price Index Manual current
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Producer Price Index Manual success
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Producer Price Index Manual per uni
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Producer Price Index Manual (7.31b)
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Producer Price Index Manual in resp
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9. PPI Calculation in Practice clud
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Producer Price Index Manual 10. Rec
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Producer Price Index Manual USAGE C
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11. Errors and Bias in the PPI disp
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Producer Price Index Manual of the
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Producer Price Index Manual unitary
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12. Organization and Management A.
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12. Organization and Management of
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12. Organization and Management rie
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12. Organization and Management det
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12. Organization and Management fou
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13. Publication, Dissemination, and
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14. The System of Price Statistics
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I 14. The System of Price Statistic
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15. Basic Index Number Theory 371 k
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15. Basic Index Number Theory 377 T
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15. Basic Index Number Theory 383 n
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15. Basic Index Number Theory 395 C
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15. Basic Index Number Theory 399 A
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15. Basic Index Number Theory 401 A
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16. Axiomatic and Stochastic Approa
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17. Economic Approach A. Introducti
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17. Economic Approach possibilities
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17. Economic Approach the numerator
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17. Economic Approach 17.28 The new
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17. Economic Approach (17.46) P T (
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17. Economic Approach ing flexible
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17. Economic Approach P W (p 0 ,p 1
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17. Economic Approach constraint, f
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18. Aggregation Issues A. Introduct
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18. Aggregation Issues (18.4) R 0 (
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18. Aggregation Issues (18.14) R(p
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18. Aggregation Issues Then, this n
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18. Aggregation Issues (18.28) P 1
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18. Aggregation Issues , = 1 N M
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18. Aggregation Issues 18.67 Howeve
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19. Price Indices Using an Artifici
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20. Elementary Indices Any aggregat
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20. Elementary Indices listed in Ch
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20. Elementary Indices (20.41) M
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20. Elementary Indices price collec
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20. Elementary Indices penditure sh
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21. Quality Change and Hedonics 21.
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