Producer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice ... - METAC

Producer Price Index Manual
Table 22.26. Seasonally Adjusted Lowe, Young, and Geometric Laspeyres Indices with Carryforward
Prices and Centered Rolling-Year Index
Year Month P LOSA P YSA P GLSA P CRY P LOX11 P YX11 P GLX11
1970 12 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
1971 1 1.0091 1.0091 1.0091 1.0091 1.0077 1.0088 1.0088
2 1.0179 1.0179 1.0179 1.0179 1.0009 1.0044 0.9986
3 1.0242 1.0242 1.0242 1.0242 1.0208 1.0205 1.0029
4 1.0298 1.0298 1.0298 1.0298 1.0314 1.0364 1.0157
5 1.0388 1.0388 1.0388 1.0388 1.0604 1.0666 1.0490
6 1.0478 1.0478 1.0478 1.0478 1.0302 1.0402 1.0258
7 1.0547 1.0547 1.0547 1.0547 1.0237 1.0409 1.0213
8 1.0631 1.0631 1.0631 1.0631 1.0572 1.0758 1.0561
9 1.0729 1.0729 1.0729 1.0729 1.0558 1.0665 1.0626
10 1.0814 1.0814 1.0814 1.0814 1.0500 1.0598 1.0573
11 1.0885 1.0885 1.0885 1.0885 1.0598 1.0714 1.0666
12 1.0824 1.0932 1.0900 1.0965 1.0828 1.0931 1.0901
1972 1 1.0871 1.0960 1.0919 1.1065 1.0856 1.0957 1.0916
2 1.1148 1.1207 1.1204 1.1174 1.0963 1.1059 1.0992
3 1.1093 1.1214 1.1318 1.1254 1.1056 1.1173 1.1083
4 1.1057 1.1132 1.1226 1.1313 1.1076 1.1203 1.1072
5 1.0983 1.1039 1.1120 1.1402 1.1211 1.1334 1.1229
6 1.1467 1.1471 1.1505 1.1502 1.1276 1.1387 1.1264
7 1.1701 1.1667 1.1715 1.1591 1.1361 1.1514 1.1343
8 1.1456 1.1443 1.1461 1.1690 1.1393 1.1580 1.1385
9 1.1703 1.1746 1.1642 1.1806 1.1517 1.1676 1.1531
10 1.1946 1.2017 1.1905 1.1924 1.1599 1.1777 1.1640
11 1.2019 1.2102 1.2005 1.2049 1.1703 1.1912 1.1762
12 1.1844 1.2032 1.1938 1.2203 1.1848 1.2031 1.1938
1973 1 1.1882 1.2089 1.1922 1.2386 1.1940 1.2163 1.1998
2 1.2357 1.2536 1.2431 1.2608 1.2260 1.2480 1.2314
3 1.2201 1.2477 1.2575 1.2809 1.2296 1.2569 1.2469
4 1.2349 1.2523 1.2656 1.2966 1.2529 1.2764 1.2678
5 1.2299 1.2425 1.2514 1.3176 1.2628 1.2820 1.2743
6 1.3421 1.3410 1.3335 1.3406 1.3175 1.3285 1.3035
7 1.3543 1.3512 1.3518 0.0000 1.3123 1.3313 1.3069
8 1.3334 1.3302 1.3276 0.0000 1.3254 1.3460 1.3186
9 1.3692 1.3800 1.3524 0.0000 1.3489 1.3739 1.3411
10 1.4400 1.4601 1.4242 0.0000 1.4016 1.4351 1.3962
11 1.4621 1.4844 1.4508 0.0000 1.4308 1.4691 1.4296
12 1.4181 1.4521 1.4236 0.0000 1.4332 1.4668 1.4374
months of 1973, the three month-to-month indices
underestimate the centered rolling-year inflation
rate, but by the middle of 1973, the month-to-month
indices are right on target. 52
52 Recall that the last six months of P CRY are missing; six
months of data for 1974 would be required to evaluate these
centered rolling-year index values, and these data are not
available.
22.92 The last three series in Table 22.26 reflect
the seasonal adjustment of the Lowe, Young, and
geometric Laspeyres using the X-11 program. The
seasonally adjusted series (P LOx11 , P Yx11 , and P GLx11 )
are normalized to December 1970, so that they may
easily be compared with the centered rolling-year
index, P CRY . Again, these seasonally adjusted series
compare rather well with the trend of P CRY and appear
to predict the corresponding target values.
588