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Scenarios for shipping emissions 2012–2050 137 Substance GWP Notes Table 76 – HFCs used on board ships R-22 1,810 R-22 (chlorodifluoromethane) has been the dominant refrigerant in air conditioners used on board ships. The production of R-22 has been phased out under the Montreal Protocol in many countries. It is assumed that it is used only in vessels built before 2000. R134a 1,300 R134a (1,1,1,2-Tetrafluoroethane) is used as a replacement for R-22 in vessels built from 2000 onwards. R404a 3,700 R404a is a mixture of R125, R143a and R134a. It is used predominantly in fishing vessels but also in freezing and cooling equipment in other vessels. Assuming that ships built before 2000 have a 25-year lifetime, R-22 will have become obsolete in shipping by 2025. The study does not model that other HFCs will be phased out, that air conditioner leakage rates will change or that other coolants will replace HFCs. The emissions factors of other relevant substances are assumed to remain constant over time. 3.3 Results 3.3.1 Transport demand The projections of GDP are shown in Figure 80, where SSP5 (associated in this study with RCP8.5) results in a world GDP that is approximately seven times greater than present-day values by 2050 (at constant 2005 US$); SSP3 (the lowest) projects GDP to triple in the same period. Figure 80: Historical data to 2012 on global GDP (constant 2005 US$ billion/yr) coupled with projections of GDP from SSP1 through to SSP5 by 2050
138 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Historical and projected data on consumption of coal and oil were taken from the Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 (BP, 2014) and RCPs (see Figure 81). Figure 81: Historical data to 2012 on global consumption of coals and oil (EJ/yr) coupled with projections from RCP2.6 through to RCP8.5 by 2050 The GDP projections were used to project shipping transport work for non-coal combined bulk ship traffic and other dry cargo ship traffic demand, resulting in the ranges of transport shown in Figure 82. Figure 82: Historical data to 2012 on global transport work for non-coal combined bulk dry cargoes and other dry cargoes (billion tonne-miles) coupled with projections driven by GDPs from SSP1 through to SSP5 by 2050
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Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014
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Published in 2015 by the internatio
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Contents Page Preface .............
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vii 3.1.2 Outline .............
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ix Fleet productivity projectio
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xii Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The re
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xiv Third IMO GHG Study 2014 MEPC m
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List of figures Page Figure 1: Bott
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List of figures xix Page Figure 46:
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List of figures xxi Annex Figures P
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List of figures xxiii Figure 45: Ca
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xxvi Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Page
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xxviii Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Tab
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Executive Summary Key findings from
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Executive Summary 3 rigorous testin
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Executive Summary 5 emissions than
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Executive Summary 7 Figure 2 shows
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Executive Summary 9 because, in con
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Executive Summary 11 Particular car
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Executive Summary 13 larger ship si
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Executive Summary 15 Summary of Sec
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Executive Summary 17 a. CO 2 b. CH
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Executive Summary 19 Demand for coa
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Executive Summary 21 Figure 15 show
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Executive Summary 23 • ships obse
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Executive Summary 25 b Noon report
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1 Inventories of CO 2 emissions fro
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Inventories of CO2 emissions from i
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188 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Ship t
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192 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2007 D
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196 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Figure
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202 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Every
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206 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Table
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208 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 time s
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210 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2011
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Annex 4 Details for Section 1.5.1:
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Annex 4 231 IEA sources of uncertai
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Annex 4 233 Transfers category repo
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Annex 4 235 Figure 24: Time series
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Annex 5 Details for Section 1.5.2:
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Annex 5 239 3 The uncertainty in es
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Annex 5 241 data has been used. The
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Annex 5 243 temporal coverage QA/QC
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Annex 5 245 uncertainties (standard
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Annex 6 Details for Section 2: othe
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Table 22 - Baseline emissions facto
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Annex 6 251 Table 24 - EF-related S
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Annex 6 253 Table 31 - PM FCFs - MG
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256 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Analys
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260 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 that s
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262 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Contai
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264 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Regard
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266 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 LNG ma
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268 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 • Th
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270 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 ULCCs
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274 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 potent
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276 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Size c
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280 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Year o
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282 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Johnso
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284 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The re
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286 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 MGO, t
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288 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 CH 4 M
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