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vii<br />
3.1.2 Outline ........................................................... 128<br />
3.2 Methods and data. ........................................................ 128<br />
3.2.1 The emissions projection model ........................................ 128<br />
3.2.2 Base scenarios. ..................................................... 129<br />
3.2.3 Transport demand projections .......................................... 131<br />
3.2.4 Fleet productivity ................................................... 132<br />
3.2.5 Ship size development. ............................................... 133<br />
3.2.6 EEDI, SEEMP and autonomous improvements in efficiency .................... 134<br />
3.2.7 Fuel mix: market- and regulation-driven changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135<br />
3.2.8 Emissions factors .................................................... 136<br />
3.3 Results ................................................................. 137<br />
3.3.1 Transport demand ................................................... 137<br />
3.3.2 Projected CO 2 emissions .............................................. 139<br />
3.3.3 Results for other substances. ........................................... 143<br />
3.3.4 Sensitivity to productivity and speed assumptions ........................... 144<br />
3.3.5 Uncertainty ........................................................ 145<br />
3.4 Main results ............................................................. 145<br />
Bibliography for Main Report and Annexes. ................................... 147<br />
Page<br />
Annex 1 Details for Section 1.2:<br />
bottom-up method. .............................................. 153<br />
IHSF technical data and method for populating missing data ............................ 153<br />
IHSF operational data .......................................................... 154<br />
Estimating ship activity over the course of a year using AIS data ......................... 159<br />
Sources and spatial and temporal coverage ...................................... 159<br />
Pre-processing AIS data ........................................................ 160<br />
Multi-MMSI merging. .......................................................... 163<br />
Extrapolating ship annual profile to generate complete annual operational profiles. .......... 165<br />
Assumptions for auxiliary and boiler power demands. ................................. 167<br />
Assumptions for main and auxiliary fuel type ........................................ 173<br />
Assumptions for hull fouling and deterioration over time ............................... 173<br />
Assumptions for the impact of weather on fuel consumption ............................ 173<br />
Activity and fleet data merger ................................................... 174<br />
Bottom-up model calculation procedure ........................................... 175<br />
Powering subroutine: Power_at_op ............................................ 176<br />
Emissions subroutine: Emissions_at_op. ......................................... 177<br />
Aggregation by ship type and size ............................................. 178<br />
Fleet estimate assembly. ........................................................ 178<br />
Annex 2 Details for Section 1.3:<br />
inventory results ................................................. 179<br />
2011 Detailed Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180<br />
2010 Detailed Results .......................................................... 183<br />
2009 Detailed Results .......................................................... 186<br />
2008 Detailed Results .......................................................... 189<br />
2007 Detailed Results .......................................................... 192