MnrAq

Recommendations

Info

Scenarios for shipping emissions 2012–2050 145 Figure 88: Impact of productivity assumptions on emissions projections There are other ways of increasing productivity than increasing the average cargo load. When demand increases and the size of the fleet cannot keep up with the rising demand, a natural response is for ships to increase their speed. This also increases productivity. However, since fuel use and emissions per tonne-mile are roughly proportional to the square of the speed, a speed increase would result in emissions that are higher than emissions at constant productivity. In sum, our emissions projections are sensitive to our assumption that productivity will revert to its long-term average value without increasing emissions per ship. If productivity remains constant (because ships will continue to operate at their current load factors, with their current number of days at sea and at their current speed), emissions are likely to be 10% higher than projected. If productivity increases because ships increase their speed at sea, emissions are likely to increase by a higher amount. 3.3.5 Uncertainty There are two sources of uncertainty in the scenarios. The first is that the estimates of emissions in the base year have an uncertainty range, which has been discussed in Section 1.5. As our emissions projection model calculated future emissions on the basis of base-year emissions and relative changes in parameters (discussed in Section 3.2), uncertainty in the base year carries forward into future years. The second source of uncertainty is that the future is, in itself, uncertain. This type of uncertainty is addressed by showing different scenarios. While the scenarios are stylized representations of the future, and have no uncertainty of their own, uncertainty is introduced by the fact that each of the BAU scenarios is equally likely to occur. Hence, on top of the uncertainty in the base-year emissions, there is uncertainty in future developments that increases over time. 3.4 Main results Maritime emissions projections show an increase in fuel use and GHG emissions in the period up to 2050, despite significant regulatory and market-driven improvements in efficiency. Depending on future economic and energy developments, our BAU scenarios project an increase of 50%–250% in the period up to 2050. Further action on efficiency and emissions can mitigate emissions growth, although all scenarios but one project emissions in 2050 to be higher than in 2012. The main driver of the emissions increase is the projected rise in demand for maritime transport. This rise is most pronounced in scenarios that combine the sustained use of fossil fuels with high economic growth and is lower in scenarios that involve a transition to renewable energy sources or a more moderate growth pattern.
146 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Among the different cargo categories, demand for transport of unitized cargoes is projected to increase most rapidly in all scenarios. The emissions projections show that improvements in efficiency are important in mitigating emissions growth, but even the most significant improvements modelled do not result in a downward trend. Compared to regulatory or market-driven improvements in efficiency, changes in the fuel mix have a limited impact on GHG emissions, assuming that fossil fuels remain dominant. The projections are sensitive to the assumption that the productivity of the fleet, which is currently low, will revert to its long-term average by taking more cargo on board. If productivity does remain at its current level, or if it increases by increasing the number of days at sea or ship speed, emissions are likely to increase to a higher level.
Page 1 and 2:
Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014
Page 3 and 4:
Published in 2015 by the internatio
Page 6 and 7:
Contents Page Preface .............
Page 8 and 9:
vii 3.1.2 Outline .............
Page 10:
ix Fleet productivity projectio
Page 13 and 14:
xii Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The re
Page 15 and 16:
xiv Third IMO GHG Study 2014 MEPC m
Page 18 and 19:
List of figures Page Figure 1: Bott
Page 20 and 21:
List of figures xix Page Figure 46:
Page 22 and 23:
List of figures xxi Annex Figures P
Page 24:
List of figures xxiii Figure 45: Ca
Page 27 and 28:
xxvi Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Page
Page 29 and 30:
xxviii Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Tab
Page 32 and 33:
Executive Summary Key findings from
Page 34 and 35:
Executive Summary 3 rigorous testin
Page 36 and 37:
Executive Summary 5 emissions than
Page 38 and 39:
Executive Summary 7 Figure 2 shows
Page 40 and 41:
Executive Summary 9 because, in con
Page 42 and 43:
Executive Summary 11 Particular car
Page 44 and 45:
Executive Summary 13 larger ship si
Page 46 and 47:
Executive Summary 15 Summary of Sec
Page 48 and 49:
Executive Summary 17 a. CO 2 b. CH
Page 50 and 51:
Executive Summary 19 Demand for coa
Page 52 and 53:
Executive Summary 21 Figure 15 show
Page 54 and 55:
Executive Summary 23 • ships obse
Page 56 and 57:
Executive Summary 25 b Noon report
Page 58 and 59:
1 Inventories of CO 2 emissions fro
Page 60 and 61:
Inventories of CO2 emissions from i
Page 62 and 63:
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124:
Page 127 and 128: 96 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Emissio
Page 129 and 130: 98 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Method
Page 131 and 132: 100 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Table
Page 133 and 134: 102 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Year T
Page 135 and 136: 104 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2.2.7
Page 137 and 138: 106 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 This s
Page 139 and 140: 108 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 N 2 O
Page 143 and 144: 112 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Figure
Page 149 and 150: 118 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 shippi
Page 151 and 152: 120 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 • SO
Page 153 and 154: 122 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 a) CO
Page 158 and 159: 3 Scenarios for shipping emissions
Page 160 and 161: Scenarios for shipping emissions 20
Page 178 and 179: Bibliography for Main Report and An
Page 180 and 181: Bibliography for Main Report and An
Page 182: Bibliography for Main Report and An
Page 185 and 186: 154 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 IHSF o
Page 191 and 192: 160 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Pre-pr
Page 193 and 194: 162 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 There
Page 195 and 196: 164 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Follow
Page 197 and 198: 166 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Figure
Page 199 and 200: 168 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 data s
Page 203 and 204: 172 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Ship c
Page 205 and 206: 174 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 experi
Page 207 and 208: 176 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The mo
Page 209 and 210: 178 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 sfc =
Page 211 and 212: 180 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2011 D
Page 213 and 214: 182 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Ship t
Page 227 and 228:
196 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Figure
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
202 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Every
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
206 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Table
Page 239 and 240:
208 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 time s
Page 241 and 242:
210 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2011
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
Page 257 and 258:
Page 260 and 261:
Annex 4 Details for Section 1.5.1:
Page 262 and 263:
Annex 4 231 IEA sources of uncertai
Page 264 and 265:
Annex 4 233 Transfers category repo
Page 266 and 267:
Annex 4 235 Figure 24: Time series
Page 268 and 269:
Annex 5 Details for Section 1.5.2:
Page 270 and 271:
Annex 5 239 3 The uncertainty in es
Page 272 and 273:
Annex 5 241 data has been used. The
Page 274 and 275:
Annex 5 243 temporal coverage QA/QC
Page 276 and 277:
Annex 5 245 uncertainties (standard
Page 278 and 279:
Annex 6 Details for Section 2: othe
Page 280 and 281:
Table 22 - Baseline emissions facto
Page 282 and 283:
Annex 6 251 Table 24 - EF-related S
Page 284:
Annex 6 253 Table 31 - PM FCFs - MG
Page 287 and 288:
256 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Analys
Page 289 and 290:
Page 291 and 292:
260 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 that s
Page 293 and 294:
262 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Contai
Page 295 and 296:
264 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Regard
Page 297 and 298:
266 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 LNG ma
Page 299 and 300:
268 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 • Th
Page 301 and 302:
270 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 ULCCs
Page 303 and 304:
Page 305 and 306:
274 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 potent
Page 307 and 308:
276 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Size c
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
280 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Year o
Page 313 and 314:
282 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Johnso
Page 315 and 316:
284 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The re
Page 317 and 318:
286 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 MGO, t
Page 319 and 320:
288 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 CH 4 M
Page 321 and 322:
290 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 • As
Page 323 and 324:
Page 325 and 326:
show all

MnrAq

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?