MnrAq

Recommendations

Info

Executive Summary 5 emissions than the previously forecasted scenarios, and may modify the long-run projections for 2050 ship emissions. In this context, the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 provides new projections informed by important economic and technological changes since 2007. • Since 2009, greater geographical coverage achieved via satellite technology/AIS receivers has improved the quality of data available to characterize shipping activity beyond the state of practice used in the Second IMO GHG Study 2009. These new data make possible more detailed methods that can substantially improve the quality of bottom-up inventory estimates. Additionally, improved understanding of marine fuel (bunker) statistics reported by nations has identified, but not quantified, potential uncertainties in the accuracy of top-down inventory estimates from fuel sales to ships. Improved bottom-up estimates can reconcile better the discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up emissions observed in previous studies (including the Second IMO GHG Study 2009). In this context, the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 represents the most detailed and comprehensive global inventory of shipping emissions to date. The scope and design of the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 responds directly to specific directives from the IMO Secretariat that derived from the IMO Expert Workshop (2013) recommendations with regard to activity-based (bottom-up) ship emissions estimation. These recommendations were: • to consider direct vessel observations to the greatest extent possible; • to use vessel-specific activity and technical details in a bottom-up inventory model; • to use “to the best extent possible” actual vessel speed to obtain engine loads. The IMO Expert Workshop recognized that “bottom-up estimates are far more detailed and are generally based on ship activity levels by calculating the fuel consumption and emissions from individual ship movements” and that “a more sophisticated bottom-up approach to develop emission estimates on a ship-by-ship basis” would “require significant data to be inputted and may require additional time […] to complete”. Structure of the study and scope of work The Third IMO GHG Study 2014 report follows the structure of the terms of reference for the work, which comprise three main sections: Section 1: Inventories of CO 2 emissions from international shipping 2007–2012 This section deploys both a top-down (2007–2011) and a bottom-up (2007–2012) analysis of CO 2 emissions from international shipping. The inventories are analysed and discussed with respect to the quality of methods and data and to uncertainty of results. The discrepancies between the bottom-up and top-down inventories are discussed. The Third IMO GHG Study 2014 inventory for 2007 is compared to the Second IMO GHG Study 2009 inventory for the same year. Section 2: Inventories of emissions of GHGs and other relevant substances from international shipping 2007–2012 This section applies the top-down (2007–2011) and bottom-up (2007–2012) analysis from Section 1 in combination with data describing the emissions factors and calculations inventories for non-CO 2 GHGs – methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), HFCs and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) – and relevant substances – oxides of sulphur (SOx), oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO) and NMVOCs. The quality of methods and data and uncertainty of the inventory results are discussed, and comparisons are made between the top-down and bottom-up estimates in the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 and the results of the Second IMO GHG Study 2009. Section 3: Scenarios for shipping emissions 2012–2050 This section develops scenarios for future emissions for all GHGs and other relevant substances investigated in Sections 1 and 2. Results reflect the incorporation of new base scenarios used in GHG projections for non-shipping sectors and method advances, and incorporate fleet activity and emissions insights emerging from the 2007–2012 estimates. Drivers of emissions trajectories are evaluated and sources of uncertainty in the scenarios are discussed.
6 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Summary of Section 1: Inventories of CO 2 emissions from international shipping 2007–2012 2012 fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions by ship type Figure 1 presents the CO 2 emissions by ship type for 2012, calculated using the bottom-up method. Equivalent ship-type-specific results cannot be presented for the top-down method because the reported marine fuel sales statistics are only available in three categories: international, domestic and fishing. Figure 1: Bottom-up CO 2 emissions from international shipping by ship type 2012
Page 1 and 2: Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014
Page 3 and 4: Published in 2015 by the internatio
Page 6 and 7: Contents Page Preface .............
Page 8 and 9: vii 3.1.2 Outline .............
Page 10: ix Fleet productivity projectio
Page 13 and 14: xii Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The re
Page 15 and 16: xiv Third IMO GHG Study 2014 MEPC m
Page 18 and 19: List of figures Page Figure 1: Bott
Page 20 and 21: List of figures xix Page Figure 46:
Page 22 and 23: List of figures xxi Annex Figures P
Page 24: List of figures xxiii Figure 45: Ca
Page 27 and 28: xxvi Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Page
Page 29 and 30: xxviii Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Tab
Page 32 and 33: Executive Summary Key findings from
Page 34 and 35: Executive Summary 3 rigorous testin
Page 38 and 39: Executive Summary 7 Figure 2 shows
Page 40 and 41: Executive Summary 9 because, in con
Page 42 and 43: Executive Summary 11 Particular car
Page 44 and 45: Executive Summary 13 larger ship si
Page 46 and 47: Executive Summary 15 Summary of Sec
Page 48 and 49: Executive Summary 17 a. CO 2 b. CH
Page 50 and 51: Executive Summary 19 Demand for coa
Page 52 and 53: Executive Summary 21 Figure 15 show
Page 54 and 55: Executive Summary 23 • ships obse
Page 56 and 57: Executive Summary 25 b Noon report
Page 58 and 59: 1 Inventories of CO 2 emissions fro
Page 60 and 61: Inventories of CO2 emissions from i
Page 86 and 87:
Inventories of CO2 emissions from i
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124:
Page 127 and 128:
96 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Emissio
Page 129 and 130:
98 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Method
Page 131 and 132:
100 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Table
Page 133 and 134:
102 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Year T
Page 135 and 136:
104 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2.2.7
Page 137 and 138:
106 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 This s
Page 139 and 140:
108 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 N 2 O
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
112 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Figure
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
118 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 shippi
Page 151 and 152:
120 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 • SO
Page 153 and 154:
122 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 a) CO
Page 155 and 156:
Page 158 and 159:
3 Scenarios for shipping emissions
Page 160 and 161:
Scenarios for shipping emissions 20
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 170 and 171:
Page 172 and 173:
Page 174 and 175:
Page 176 and 177:
Page 178 and 179:
Bibliography for Main Report and An
Page 180 and 181:
Page 182:
Page 185 and 186:
154 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 IHSF o
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
160 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Pre-pr
Page 193 and 194:
162 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 There
Page 195 and 196:
164 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Follow
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
168 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 data s
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
172 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Ship c
Page 205 and 206:
174 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 experi
Page 207 and 208:
176 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The mo
Page 209 and 210:
178 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 sfc =
Page 211 and 212:
180 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2011 D
Page 213 and 214:
182 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Ship t
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
202 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Every
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
208 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 time s
Page 241 and 242:
210 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 2011
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
Page 257 and 258:
Page 260 and 261:
Annex 4 Details for Section 1.5.1:
Page 262 and 263:
Annex 4 231 IEA sources of uncertai
Page 264 and 265:
Annex 4 233 Transfers category repo
Page 266 and 267:
Annex 4 235 Figure 24: Time series
Page 268 and 269:
Annex 5 Details for Section 1.5.2:
Page 270 and 271:
Annex 5 239 3 The uncertainty in es
Page 272 and 273:
Annex 5 241 data has been used. The
Page 274 and 275:
Annex 5 243 temporal coverage QA/QC
Page 276 and 277:
Annex 5 245 uncertainties (standard
Page 278 and 279:
Annex 6 Details for Section 2: othe
Page 280 and 281:
Table 22 - Baseline emissions facto
Page 282 and 283:
Annex 6 251 Table 24 - EF-related S
Page 284:
Annex 6 253 Table 31 - PM FCFs - MG
Page 287 and 288:
256 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Analys
Page 289 and 290:
Page 291 and 292:
260 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 that s
Page 293 and 294:
262 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Contai
Page 295 and 296:
264 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Regard
Page 297 and 298:
266 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 LNG ma
Page 299 and 300:
268 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 • Th
Page 301 and 302:
270 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 ULCCs
Page 303 and 304:
Page 305 and 306:
274 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 potent
Page 307 and 308:
276 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Size c
Page 309 and 310:
Page 311 and 312:
280 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Year o
Page 313 and 314:
282 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Johnso
Page 315 and 316:
284 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 The re
Page 317 and 318:
286 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 MGO, t
Page 319 and 320:
288 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 CH 4 M
Page 321 and 322:
290 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 • As
Page 323 and 324:
Page 325 and 326:
show all

MnrAq

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?