MnrAq

270 Third IMO GHG Study 2014
ULCCs (>320,000 dwt) have been built in the 1970s and again in the 2000s, but they have never conquered
a significant market share. They are currently predominantly used as floating storage units. We do not expect
a breakthrough of larger tankers in the coming decades and will therefore not include them in our analysis.
In the 1990s, the average size of tankers decreased as the total fleet capacity remained constant and the total
number of ships grew, as shown in Figure 44. In the 2000s, the average size remained more or less stable, and
in the last few years, the capacity of the fleet has increased at a higher rate than the number of ships, indicating
an increase in the average size.
Source: Intertanko (2012)
Figure 44: Projected tanker fleet development 1992–2013
(projection for 2012 and 2013)
According to RS Platou (2014) (see Figure 45), there has been a shift from VLCCs towards other tanker sizes,
mainly to tankers in the 70–120,000 dwt range (this is confirmed by Intertanko’s annual report 2012/2013),
although this shift seems to have come to a halt in 2012 and 2013. On the one hand, larger refineries (e.g. in
Asia) could drive up the ship sizes again, but, on the other, a shift of production away from OPEC to countries
that are unable to accommodate ships larger than Aframax might drive the size down again.