MnrAq

xxii Third IMO GHG Study 2014
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Figure 19: Difference between average speed at sea for each ship size and type category.
Negative values indicate that LRIT data provides a lower estimate of speed
than the extrapolated AIS data ......................................... 205
Figure 20: Fuel oil shipping sales, export-import discrepancy
and statistical difference at world balance ................................. 232
Figure 21: Gas/diesel shipping sales, export-import discrepancy
and statistical difference at world balance ................................. 232
Figure 22: World natural gas shipping sales, export-import discrepancy
and statistical difference .............................................. 233
Figure 23: Stacked graph showing sum of fuel transfer balance
and export-import discrepancy ......................................... 234
Figure 24: Time series of adjustments due to primary and secondary sources of uncertainty ... 235
Figure 25: Adjusted marine fuel sales based on quantitative uncertainty results (2007–2011) ... 235
Figure 26: Bottom-up model with overview of QA/QC
and uncertainty characterization ........................................ 238
Figure 27: Relationship between speed over ground and speed through the water ........... 240
Figure 28: Comparison between draught estimated in the bottom-up model from AIS data
and reported in noon reports .......................................... 241
Figure 29: Estimation of the power law relating deadweight to resistance
for samples of different ship types ....................................... 242
Figure 30: Uncertainty around the annual emissions (x-axis is ‘00,000 tonnes of CO 2 ;
y-axis is frequency) from a Monte Carlo simulation of an “average”
Panamax bulk carrier (60,000–99,999 dwt capacity) in 2007 .................. 243
Figure 31: Uncertainty around the annual emissions (x-axis is ‘00,000 tonnes of CO 2 ;
y-axis is frequency) from a Monte Carlo simulation of an “average”
Panamax bulk carrier (60,000–99,999 dwt capacity) in 2012 .................. 244
Figure 32: Schematic presentation of the emissions projection model .................... 255
Figure 33: Transport work for all categories of cargo, provided by UNCTAD,
from 1970 to 2012 in billion tonne-miles; also illustrated with global GDP
(right-hand axis) in US$ billion (constant 2005 prices) ........................ 256
Figure 34: Ratios of TST (different subtypes) in billion tonne-miles
to historical global GDP in US$ (constant 2005 prices) and coal/oil consumption
(from BP Statistical Review) ............................................ 258
Figure 35: Historical and modelled growth curves to 2050 for ratios of total oil,
coal, total (non-coal) bulk dry goods and other dry cargoes ................... 258
Figure 36: The role of fleet productivity in the model structure ......................... 259
Figure 37: Historical fleet productivity (Stopford, 2009) ............................... 260
Figure 38: Productivity of oil tankers measured in thousand tonne-miles per dwt,
1970–2013 ........................................................ 261
Figure 39: Productivity of dry bulk carriers measured in thousand tonne-miles
(five main dry bulks) per dwt (all bulk carriers), 1970–2013 .................... 262
Figure 40: Productivity of container and liquefied gas ships
measured in thousand tonne-miles per dwt, 1999–2013 ...................... 263
Figure 41: First (upper chart) and second (lower chart) methodologies
to determine the number of ships per size category in 2050 ................... 265
Figure 42: Composition of global container fleet in the period 2002–2014
(beginning of year figures) ............................................. 267
Figure 43: Historical development of average ship size of cellular fleet ................... 269
Figure 44: Projected tanker fleet development 1992–2013
(projection for 2012 and 2013) ......................................... 270