MnrAq

Contents
Page
Preface .....................................................................
List of abbreviations and acronyms. ...............................................
Key definitions ...............................................................
List of figures ................................................................
List of tables .................................................................
xi
xiii
xv
xvii
xxv
Executive Summary ......................................................... 1
Key findings from the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 ................................... 1
Aim and objective of the study ................................................... 4
Structure of the study and scope of work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Summary of Section 1: Inventories of CO 2 emissions from international shipping 2007–2012 ... 6
2012 fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions by ship type. ............................ 6
2007–2012 fuel consumption by bottom-up and top-down methods:
Third IMO GHG Study 2014 and Second IMO GHG Study 2009 ...................... 8
2007–2012 trends in CO 2 emissions and drivers of emissions ......................... 11
Summary of Section 2: Inventories of emissions of GHGs and other
relevant substances from international shipping 2007–2012 ............................ 15
Summary of Section 3: Scenarios for shipping emissions 2012–2050 ...................... 18
Maritime transport demand projections ......................................... 18
Maritime emissions projections ............................................... 20
Summary of the data and methods used (Sections 1, 2 and 3) ........................... 22
Key assumptions and method details ........................................... 22
Inventory estimation methods overview (Sections 1 and 2) ........................... 23
Scenario estimation method overview (Section 3). ................................. 26
1 Inventories of CO 2 emissions from international shipping 2007–2012. ........ 27
1.1 Top-down CO 2 inventory calculation method ................................... 27
1.1.1 Introduction ....................................................... 27
1.1.2 Methods for review of IEA data ......................................... 27
1.1.3 Top-down fuel consumption results ...................................... 28
1.2 Bottom-up CO 2 inventory calculation method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1.2.1 Overall bottom-up approach ........................................... 32
1.2.2 Summary of data and method input revisions. .............................. 33
1.2.3 Aggregation of ship types and sizes ...................................... 34
1.2.4 Estimating activity using AIS data ........................................ 35
1.2.5 Ship technical data .................................................. 36
1.2.6 Sources and alignment/coverage of data sources ............................ 37
1.2.7 Bottom-up fuel and emissions estimation .................................. 38
1.2.8 Classification of international and domestic fuel. ............................ 38
1.3 Inventories of CO 2 emissions calculated using both the top-down
and bottom-up methods .................................................... 41
1.3.1 CO 2 emissions and fuel consumption by ship type ........................... 41
1.3.2 CO 2 and fuel consumption for multiple years 2007–2012 ...................... 46