MnrAq

Annex 7 279
Regulatory and autonomous efficiency improvements
The projection of the future emissions of maritime shipping requires the projection of future developments in
fuel efficiency of the fleet. In the period up to 2030, we distinguish between market-driven efficiency changes
and changes required by regulation, i.e. EEDI and SEEMP. The market-driven efficiency changes are modelled
using a MACC, assuming that a certain share of the cost-effective abatement options is implemented. The data
for the MACC are taken from IMarEST (MEPC 62/INF.7). In addition, regulatory requirements may result in
the implementation of abatement options irrespective of their cost-effectiveness. Between 2030 and 2050, we
see little merit in using MACCs, as the uncertainty about the costs of technology and its abatement potential
increases rapidly for untested technologies. In addition, regulatory improvements in efficiency for the post
2030 period have been discussed but not defined. We have therefore chosen to take a holistic approach
towards ship efficiency after 2030.
EEDI and SEEMP
Ships built after 1 January 2013 must comply with EEDI regulation, and from the same date all ships must have
a SEEMP. As a result, the efficiency of new and existing ships could change. As EEDI requirements become
increasingly stringent over time, the efficiency of ships could also change.
This section reviews the impact of EEDI and SEEMP on the efficiency of ships, in order to incorporate it in the
emissions projection model.
For the purpose of the emissions projection model, efficiency is defined as unit of energy per unit of distance
for the relevant ship. A ship is characterized by the ship type and size. New ships are ships that enter the fleet
from 2013.
According to resolution MEPC.203(62) and document MEPC 66/WP.10/Add.1, the attained EEDI of new ships
built after 1 January 2013 must be at or below the required EEDI for that ship. The required EEDI is calculated
as a percentage of a reference line which is specific to ship type and size. The reference line is the best fit
of the estimated index values (a simplified EEDI which is calculated using default factors for specific fuel
consumption and auxiliary engines, and does not take ice class or fuel-saving technologies into account). Over
time, the distance to the reference line must increase, as shown in Table 48.
Table 48 – Reduction factors (percentage) for EEDI
relative to the EEDI reference line
Year of entry in the fleet
Phase 0 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
1 Jan 2013–
31 Dec 2014
1 Jan 2015–
31 Dec 2019
1 Jan 2020–
31 Dec 2024
Bulk carrier 20,000–+ dwt 0 10 20 30
10,000–20,000 dwt na 0–10 0–20 0–30
Gas carrier 10,000–+ dwt 0 10 20 30
2,000–10,000 dwt na 0–10 0–20 0–30
Tanker 20,000–+ dwt 0 10 20 30
4,000–20,000 dwt na 0–10 0–20 0–30
Container ship 15,000–+ dwt 0 10 20 30
10,000–15,000 dwt na 0–10 0–20 0–30
General cargo ship 15,000–+ dwt 0 10 20 30
3,000–15,000 dwt na 0–10 0–20 0–30
Refrigerated cargo carrier 5,000–+ dwt 0 10 20 30
3,000–5,000 dwt na 0–10 0–20 0–30
Combination carrier 20,000–+ dwt 0 10 20 30
4,000–20,000 dwt na 0–10 0–20 0–30
LNG carrier 10,000–+ dwt na 10 20 30
1 Jan 2025
and onwards