MnrAq

Annex 7 287
The following table presents the fuel mix scenarios used for the emissions projection.
Table 58 – Fuel mix scenarios used for emissions projection (% m/m)
High LNG case/extra ECAs LNG share Distillates and LSHFO* HFO
2012 0% 15% 85%
2020 10% 30% 60%
2030 15% 35% 50%
2050 25% 35% 40%
Low LNG case/no extra ECAs LNG share Distillates and LSHFO* HFO
2012 0% 15% 85%
2020 2% 25% 73%
2030 4% 25% 71%
2050 8% 25% 67%
* Sulphur content of 1% in 2012 and 0.5% from 2020.
In both scenarios, we assume that the global 0.5% sulphur requirement will become effective in 2020. A later
enforcement (2025) is accounted for in a sensitivity analysis.
Also, in both scenarios we assume that in 2020, 60% of the fuel consumption of the fleet (in terms of tons)
consists of HFO. In the scenario, where extra ECAs are assumed to be established, this share decreases over
time, whereas in the other scenario it does not. The share of the distillates then follows.
Emissions factors
Emissions factors
All emissions analysed here, except for HFC, PFC and SF 6 , result from fuel combustion and are therefore
calculated by multiplying fuel consumption with an emissions factor. The emissions factors depend on the
type of fuel, and we distinguish between residual fuel oil (HFO), low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO), marine gas
oil (MGO, a distillate fuel) and LNG. Emissions factors may also be affected by engine modifications (e.g.
exhaust gas recirculation (EGR)), or exhaust gas treatment (e.g. selective catalytic reduction (SCR) or sulphur
scrubbers). Some of these technologies to reduce emissions have a fuel penalty; others, such as SCR, allow
for optimization of the fuel-efficiency of the engine and may result in a fuel-efficiency improvement. The fuel
penalties are typically in the order of a percent, while the possible improvements may be larger. We do not
make assumptions about the specific ways in which ships meet standards and we ignore fuel penalties or
efficiency improvements, as these are small relative to the inherent uncertainties in the emissions projections.
Below, separate sections per species present the emissions factors in the base year and in future years.
CO 2
The emissions factors of CO 2 are expressed per tonne of fuel. For each fuel type, they remain constant over
time. When calculating the emissions of LNG engines, we take into account that the brake-specific fuel oil
consumption (SFOC) of LNG is 15% lower than the SFOC of HFO.
Table 59 – CO 2 emissions factors (g/g fuel)
Region
Fuel type
Year
2012 2030 2050
Global HFO 3,114 3,114 3,114
LSFO 3,114 3,114 3,114
MGO 3,206 3,206 3,206
LNG 2,750 2,750 2,750