Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Table of Contents1.0 Introduction............................................................................................................... 11.1 Project Objectives ........................................................................................... 11.2 Report Overview ............................................................................................. 22.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects .................................................................................. 52.1 What are Cumulative Impacts or Effects? ....................................................... 52.2 Cumulative Effects Assessment...................................................................... 62.3 Present Cumulative Effects Analysis............................................................... 83.0 Complexity, Caveats, and Overall Approach, ......................................................... 133.1 Complexity of the Ecological System ............................................................ 133.2 Unknowns, Unknowables, Knowledge Gaps, and Data Limitations .............. 143.3 Current Framework ....................................................................................... 163.3.1 Overview ........................................................................................ 163.3.2 Conceptual model .......................................................................... 163.3.3 Life history perspective/approach................................................... 203.3.4 Types of evidence .......................................................................... 203.3.5 A weight of evidence approach to retrospective ecological riskassessment .................................................................................... 203.3.6 Quantitative analyses ..................................................................... 244.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussion ......................................................................... 294.1 The Pattern We Need to Explain................................................................... 294.2 Stage 1: Incubation, Emergence and Freshwater Rearing............................ 394.2.1 Plausible mechanisms.................................................................... 394.2.2 Exposure of Fraser River sockeye to stressors .............................. 424.2.3 Correlation/consistency with patterns in Fraser River sockeyeproductivity ..................................................................................... 434.2.4 Correlation/consistency with patterns in non-Fraser Riversockeye productivity ....................................................................... 464.2.5 Other evidence ............................................................................... 474.2.6 Conclusions.................................................................................... 484.2.7 Key things we need to know better................................................. 494.3 Stage 2: Smolt Outmigration ......................................................................... 504.3.1 Plausible mechanisms.................................................................... 504.3.2 Exposure of Fraser River sockeye to stressors .............................. 504.3.3 Correlation/consistency with patterns in Fraser River sockeyeproductivity ..................................................................................... 514.3.4 Correlation/consistency with patterns in non-Fraser Riversockeye productivity ....................................................................... 53i
4.3.5 Other evidence ............................................................................... 534.3.6 Conclusions.................................................................................... 534.3.7 Key things we need to know better................................................. 554.4 Stage 3: Coastal Migration and Migration to Rearing Areas.......................... 554.4.1 Plausible mechanisms.................................................................... 554.4.2 Exposure of Fraser River sockeye to stressors .............................. 584.4.3 Correlation/consistency with patterns in Fraser River sockeyeproductivity ..................................................................................... 614.4.4 Correlation/consistency with patterns in non-Fraser Riversockeye productivity ....................................................................... 634.4.5 Other evidence ............................................................................... 634.4.6 Conclusions.................................................................................... 694.4.7 Key things we need to know better................................................. 704.5 Stage 4: Growth in North Pacific and Return to Fraser ................................. 714.5.1 Plausible mechanisms.................................................................... 714.5.2 Exposure of Fraser River sockeye to stressors .............................. 734.5.3 Correlation/consistency with patterns in Fraser River sockeyeproductivity ..................................................................................... 764.5.4 Correlation/consistency with patterns in non-Fraser Riversockeye productivity ....................................................................... 774.5.5 Other evidence ............................................................................... 784.5.6 Conclusions.................................................................................... 784.5.7 Key things we need to know better................................................. 794.6 Stage 5: Migration back to Spawn................................................................. 804.6.1 Plausible mechanisms.................................................................... 804.6.2 Exposure of Fraser River sockeye to stressors .............................. 814.6.3 Correlation/consistency with patterns in Fraser River sockeyeproductivity ..................................................................................... 834.6.4 Correlation/consistency with patterns in non-Fraser Riversockeye productivity ....................................................................... 854.6.5 Other evidence ............................................................................... 854.6.6 Conclusions.................................................................................... 854.6.7 Key things we need to know better................................................. 874.7 Effects over Entire Life Cycle ........................................................................ 874.7.1 Qualitative assessment of the potential for cumulative effectsover the entire life cycle.................................................................. 874.7.2 Quantitative analyses across the entire life cycle ........................... 914.8 Other Potential Factors Not Included in Cohen Commission ........................ 995.0 Conclusion............................................................................................................ 1015.1 Important Contributors to the Decline of Fraser River Sockeye .................. 101Stage 1: Incubation, Emergence and Freshwater Rearing...................... 101Stage 2: Smolt Outmigration ................................................................... 101Stage 3: Coastal Migration and Migration to Rearing Areas ................... 102ii
Page 1: April 2011technical report 6Fraser
Page 7 and 8: Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
Page 9: of multiple stressors and factors,
Page 13 and 14: List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
Page 16 and 17: List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
Page 18 and 19: these integrative frameworks, conve
Page 21 and 22: 2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
Page 23 and 24: assumed that there is no potential
Page 25 and 26: classes of stressors. However, if s
Page 27: affected by many stressors over its
Page 30 and 31: examples illustrate this problem --
Page 32 and 33: possibly even negligible component
Page 34 and 35: Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
Page 36 and 37: 3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
Page 38 and 39: additional analyses to gain further
Page 40 and 41: Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
Page 42 and 43: This project is unusual in its scop
Page 45 and 46: 4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
Page 47 and 48: Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
Page 49 and 50: Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
Page 51 and 52: Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
Page 53 and 54: Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
Page 55 and 56: o were generally worse during the l
Page 57 and 58: Freshwater predators on juvenile so
Page 59 and 60: copper, iron, mercury and silver).
Page 61 and 62:
Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 202 and 203:
Page 204 and 205:
Page 206 and 207:
Page 208 and 209:
Page 210 and 211:
Page 212 and 213:
The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221:
Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
Page 230 and 231:
Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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Page 268 and 269:
A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
Page 305:
There was widespread agreement with
Page 308 and 309:
Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
Page 332 and 333:
Levy: It will go ahead in January.
Page 334 and 335:
preliminary assessment of potential
Page 336 and 337:
MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
Page 338 and 339:
including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
Page 350 and 351:
survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
Page 360 and 361:
Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
Page 362 and 363:
Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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