Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Stage 4: Growth in North Pacific and Return to Fraser ........................... 102Stage 5: Migration back to Spawn........................................................... 1035.2 Research and Monitoring Priorities ............................................................. 1035.2.1 Results from the workshop........................................................... 1035.2.2 Synthesis of recommendations from Cohen CommissionTechnical Reports ........................................................................ 1056.0 References ........................................................................................................... 111Appendix 1. Statement of Work................................................................................... 117Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations and Responses .................................................... 121Appendix 3. Data and Methods................................................................................... 165Appendix 4. Quantitative Results ................................................................................ 226Appendix 5. Data Template User Guidelines .............................................................. 265Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov. 30-Dec. 1, 2010) ............................................ 273iii
List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluation of the relative likelihood that potential stressorsencountered by Fraser River sockeye salmon during life history stage1 (including eggs, alevins, fry, and parr), have contributed to overalldeclines in productivity in recent decades. ................................................. 48Table 4.3-1. Evaluation of the relative likelihood that potential stressorsencountered by Fraser River sockeye salmon during their smoltmigration from rearing habitats to the Fraser Estuary (Stage 2) havecontributed to overall declines in productivity in recent decades. ............... 54Table 4.4-1. Variables used in the quantitative analyses of marine conditions inQueen Charlotte Sound (QCS) and the Strait of Georgia (SoG) ................ 66Table 4.4-2. Model specifications for the 1969-2004 (brood years) model set.............. 67Table 4.4-3. Model specifications for the 1980-2004 (brood years) model set.............. 67Table 4.4-4. Model specifications for the 1996-2004 (brood years) model set forQueen Charlotte Sound.............................................................................. 68Table 4.4-5. Model specifications for the 1996-2004 (brood years) model set forthe Strait of Georgia. .................................................................................. 68Table 4.4-6. Evaluation of the relative likelihood that potential stressorsencountered by Fraser River sockeye salmon during their coastalmigration and migration to ocean rearing areas have contributed tooverall declines in productivity in recent decades....................................... 70Table 4.5-1. Evaluation of the relative likelihood that potential stressorsencountered by Fraser River sockeye salmon during their growth andmaturation in the ocean and return to the Fraser River (Stage 4) havecontributed to overall declines in productivity in recent decades. ............... 79Table 4.6-1. Evaluation of the relative likelihood that potential stressorsencountered by Fraser River sockeye salmon from the time returningadults enter the Fraser Estuary to when they spawn (Stage 5) havecontributed to the overall decline of the population in recent decades. ...... 86Table 4.7-1. Evaluation of the relative likelihood that potential stressorsencountered by Fraser River sockeye salmon during each life historystage have contributed to overall declines in productivity in recentdecades...................................................................................................... 90Table 4.7-2. Variables included in each model used to test the relative importanceof different life-history stages over the period of 1969-2001 (broodyears). ........................................................................................................ 93Table 4.7-3. Variables included in each model used to test the relative importanceof different stressor categories over the period of 1969-2001 (broodyears). ........................................................................................................ 96iv
Page 1: April 2011technical report 6Fraser
Page 7 and 8: Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
Page 9 and 10: of multiple stressors and factors,
Page 11: 4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
Page 16 and 17: List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
Page 18 and 19: these integrative frameworks, conve
Page 21 and 22: 2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
Page 23 and 24: assumed that there is no potential
Page 25 and 26: classes of stressors. However, if s
Page 27: affected by many stressors over its
Page 30 and 31: examples illustrate this problem --
Page 32 and 33: possibly even negligible component
Page 34 and 35: Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
Page 36 and 37: 3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
Page 38 and 39: additional analyses to gain further
Page 40 and 41: Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
Page 42 and 43: This project is unusual in its scop
Page 45 and 46: 4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
Page 47 and 48: Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
Page 49 and 50: Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
Page 51 and 52: Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
Page 53 and 54: Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
Page 55 and 56: o were generally worse during the l
Page 57 and 58: Freshwater predators on juvenile so
Page 59 and 60: copper, iron, mercury and silver).
Page 61 and 62: Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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Page 204 and 205:
Page 206 and 207:
Page 208 and 209:
Page 210 and 211:
Page 212 and 213:
The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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Page 268 and 269:
A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
Page 360 and 361:
Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
Page 362 and 363:
Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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