Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Naughton, G.P., C.C. Caudill, M.L. Keefer,T.C. Bjornn, L.C. Stuehrenberg, and C.A. Peery.2005. Late-season mortality during migration of radio-tagged adult sockeye salmon(Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Columbia River. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and AquaticSciences 62: 30–47. doi: 10.1139/F04-147Nelitz, M., C. Murray, M. Porter, and D. Marmorek. 2006. Managing Pacific Salmon forEcosystem Values: Ecosystem Indicators and the Wild Salmon Policy. ESSATechnologies Ltd. Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council. 101 pp.Nelitz,M., M. Porter, E. Parkinson,K. Wieckowski,D. Marmorek,K. Bryan,A. Halland D.Abraham. 2011. Evaluating the status of Fraser River sockeye salmon and role offreshwater ecology in their decline. ESSA Technologies Ltd. Cohen Commission Tech.Rep. 3. Vancouver, B.C. www.cohencommission.caParsons, T.R., M. Takahashi, and B. Hargrave. 1977. Biological Oceanographic Processes, 2 ndEdition. Pergamon Press, Toronto.Pestal, G. and A. Cass. 2009. Using Qualitative Risk Evaluations to Prioritize ResourceAssessment Activities for Fraser River Sockeye. Canadian Science Advisory SecretariatResearch Document 2009/071. Available from: http://www.dfompo.gc.ca/CSAS/Csas/Publications/ResDocs-DocRech/2009/2009_071_e.pdfPeterman R.M., D. Marmorek, B. Beckman, M. Bradford, N. Mantua, B. Riddell, M. Scheuerell,M. Staley, K. Wieckowski, J. Winton, C. Wood. 2010. Synthesis of evidence from aworkshop on the decline of Fraser River Sockeye. June 15-17, 2010. A Report to thePacific Salmon Commission, Vancouver, B.C., 123 pp. + 35 pp. of appendices. Availablefrom www.psc.orgPeterman, R.M. and B. Dorner. 2011. Fraser River sockeye production dynamics. CohenCommission Tech. Rep. 10. Vancouver, B.C. www.cohencommission.caPetrosky, C. and H. Schaller. 2010. Influence of river conditions during seaward migration andocean conditions on survival rates of Snake River Chinook salmon and steelhead.Ecology of Freshwater Fish 19 (4): 520-536.R Development Core Team (2010). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. RFoundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URLhttp://www.R-project.org/Ruggerone, G.T., R.M. Peterman, B. Dorner, and K.W. Myers. 2010. Magnitude and Trends inAbundance of Hatchery and Wild Pink Salmon, Chum Salmon, and Sockeye Salmon inthe North Pacific Ocean. Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, andEcosystem Science 2:306–328, 2010114
Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative Survival Study (CSS) of PIT-Tagged Spring/Summer Chinookand Steelhead In the Columbia River Basin: Ten-year Retrospective Analyses Report.BPA Contract # 25247.http://www.fpc.org/documents/CSS/FINAL%20COMPLETE%2010%20YEAR%20CSS%20REPORT-8-31-07withfrontpage.pdfSchindler, D.E., R. Hilborn, B. Chasco, C.P. Boatright, T.P. Quinn, L.A. Rogers, and M.S.Webster. 2010. Population diversity and the portfolio effect in an exploited species.Nature 465: 609-612.Selbie, D.T., M.J. Bradford, M.J. Hague, J.M.B. Hume, E.A. MacIsaac, and D.A. Patterson.2010. Are freshwater habitat conditions in the Fraser River watershed an importantcontributor to the Fraser sockeye salmon situation? In: Appendix C of Peterman et al.(2010) Synthesis of evidence from a workshop on the decline of Fraser River Sockeye.June 15-17, 2010Sonntag, N.C., R.R. Everitt, L. Rattie, D.L. Colnett, C.P. Wolf, J. Truett, A. Dorcey, and C.S.Holling. 1987. Cumulative effects assessment: A context for further research anddevelopment. Prepared for Canadian Environmental Assessment Research Council(CEARC), Hull, Quebec, 91 pp.Thompson, B. 2003. Score Reliability: Contemporary Thinking on reliability Issues. SagePublications, Thousand Oaks, California.Toms, J.D. and M.L. Lesperance. 2003. Piecewise Regression: A tool for identifying ecologicalthresholds. Ecology 84:2034-2041.Walters, C.J. and J.S. Collie. 1988. Is Research on Environmental Factors Useful to FisheriesManagement? Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 45: 1848-1854.Walters, C.J. 1989. Value of short-term forecasts of recruitment variation for harvestmanagement. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 46: 1969-1976.Weed, D.L. 2005. Weight of Evidence: A Review of Concepts and Methods. Risk Analysis25(6): 1545-1557.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2006. Guidance on Systematic Planning Usingthe Data Quality Objectives Process. EPA QA/G-4. http://www.epa.gov/quality/qsdocs/g4-final.pdf115
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
Page 79 and 80: Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
Page 81 and 82: “likely” contributor to the ove
Page 83 and 84: Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
Page 85 and 86: Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
Page 87 and 88: 3. survival rates within key portio
Page 89 and 90: 2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
Page 91 and 92: Historically, the majority of retur
Page 93 and 94: salinity. There is much evidence th
Page 95 and 96: declines (discussed in section 4.2
Page 97 and 98: There is indisputable evidence of t
Page 99 and 100: Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
Page 101 and 102: correlation was statistically signi
Page 103 and 104: 4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
Page 105 and 106: al (2010). The combined effect of a
Page 107 and 108: more likely to suffer en-route and
Page 109 and 110: Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
Page 111 and 112: However, an important limitation is
Page 113 and 114: Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
Page 115 and 116: will likely have a high correlation
Page 117 and 118: 5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
Page 119 and 120: Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
Page 121 and 122: More specifically, the extended res
Page 123 and 124: The twelve highest priority recomme
Page 125 and 126: Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
Page 127 and 128: 6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
Page 129: Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
Page 134 and 135: utilized to clarify the full range
Page 137 and 138: Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
Page 139 and 140: the conclusions of the Expert Panel
Page 141 and 142: Response: Figure numbers have been
Page 143 and 144: Response: This section has been com
Page 145 and 146: ased on time or other stocks) to
Page 147 and 148: them in terms of how changes in spa
Page 149 and 150: efer to some variable being include
Page 151 and 152: ... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
Page 153 and 154: Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
Page 155 and 156: show stronger correlations. Hence,
Page 157 and 158: Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
Page 171 and 172: events occur, it should be possible
Page 173 and 174: I don’t have anything to add beyo
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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