Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Technical and Scientific Research Projects’ WorkshopNovember 30 - December 1, 2010.Workshop SummaryPrepared by:ESSA TechnologiesSuite 300, 1765 West 8 th AvenueVancouver, BC V6J 5C6Prepared for:Cohen Commission of InquirySuite 2800, 650 West Georgia StreetVancouver, BC V6B 4N7December 20, 2010
Table of ContentsTable of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 2Background ..................................................................................................................................... 3Presentations ................................................................................................................................... 4Productivity Dynamics of Sockeye Salmon: Patterns that Need to be Explained .......................4Conservation Unit Status Assessment .........................................................................................5Fisheries & Fisheries Management (Fraser & Bristol Bay) ........................................................5Status of DFO Management and Science ....................................................................................6Diseases & Parasites ....................................................................................................................6Potential Effects of Contaminants ...............................................................................................7Freshwater Factors .......................................................................................................................8PICES Advisory Report on the Decline of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in Relation to MarineEcology ........................................................................................................................................9Marine Mammal, Fish and Bird Predation ................................................................................10Fraser Sockeye Salmon Habitat Analysis: Lower Fraser River & Strait of Georgia ................11Climate & Climate Change Effects on Fraser Sockeye .............................................................11Data Synthesis and Cumulative Effects .....................................................................................12Relative Likelihood of Alternative Hypotheses ............................................................................ 14Research and Monitoring Recommendations ............................................................................... 15References ..................................................................................................................................... 18Appendix A: Table of Projects and Investigators ......................................................................... 19Appendix B: Workshop Agenda ................................................................................................... 20Appendix C: Workshop Minutes .................................................................................................. 25Appendix D: Table of Likelihood/ hypotheses ............................................................................. 73
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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Page 242 and 243: Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
Page 244 and 245: alance” over time and so this it
Page 246 and 247: Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
Page 248 and 249: Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
Page 250 and 251: A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
Page 252 and 253: Life stage Stressor category Variab
Page 254 and 255: The results show strong support for
Page 256 and 257: ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Page 258 and 259: Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
Page 260 and 261: A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
Page 262 and 263: Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
Page 264 and 265: Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
Page 268 and 269: A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
Page 272 and 273: suggest any underlying mechanism, b
Page 274 and 275: Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
Page 278 and 279: Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
Page 281 and 282: Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
Page 283 and 284: Metric Connected to Biologically-su
Page 285 and 286: Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
Page 287 and 288: Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
Page 289: Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
Page 293 and 294: PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
Page 295 and 296: and scope for improvement, particul
Page 297 and 298: Workshop participants pointed out t
Page 299 and 300: o Can you find the same shared tren
Page 301 and 302: generally better for Alaska sockeye
Page 303 and 304: Relative Likelihood of Alternative
Page 305: There was widespread agreement with
Page 308 and 309: Appendix A: List of Projects and In
Page 310 and 311: Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
Page 312 and 313: MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
Page 314 and 315: Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
Page 316 and 317: Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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Page 320 and 321: To address potential skepticism ove
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Page 324 and 325: considered a good surrogate of temp
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Page 328 and 329: Method: The approach included formu
Page 330 and 331: Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Page 336 and 337: MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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