Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Ltd.3:00 pm Break [15 minutes]3:15 pm Freshwater Factors [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]ESSA Technologies4:00 pm Marine Ecology [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]PICES4:45 pm Wrap-up [15 minutes]5:00 pm End of Day 1December 1 st , 2010 (Day 2)8:00 am Workshop start [coffee and pastries provided]8:15 am Introductory remarks and plan for Day 2 [David Marmorek; 15 min]8:30 am Predators [2 x 20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]Mammal predation – Andrew TritesFish predation – Villy Christensen9:30 am Lower Fraser Habitat Analysis [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]Mark Johannes10:15 am Break [15 minutes]10:30 am Climate Change [2 x 20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]En route mortality – Scott HinchClimate Change – Eduardo Martins11:30 am Cumulative Effects [1 hour]• Examples of intended analyses Qualitative Quantitative (including looking at data template)• Exploring conceptual models Interactive/collaborative discussion12:30 pm Lunch [1 hour] – lunch provided1:30 pm Integrative Workshop Task [1.5 hours]Relative Likelihood of Alternative HypothesesIndividual review of relevant PSC outputs & subgroup discussion23
3:00 pm Break [15 minutes]• Examine relevant parts of PSC report (Peterman et al. 2010)) as astraw starting point [20 min] Probability of, or relative likelihood of, alternative hypotheses Table E-1• Discuss in 2-3 inter-disciplinary sub-groups [40 min] Compare PSC conclusions to participants’ own research Agreement/disagreement? Missing lines of evidence? Are there any concerns based on what you know so far?• Report back to group in plenary [30 min]3:15 pm Integrative Workshop Task [1.5 hours]Research and Monitoring RecommendationsIndividual review of relevant PSC outputs & plenary discussion• Examine relevant parts of PSC Report (Peterman et al. 2010) as astraw starting point [20 min] Priorities for Monitoring and Research Table E-3• Discuss in plenary [70 min] Go through recommendations by life-history stage Consider workshop presentationsAgreement/disagreement with PSC recommendations?Additional items needed? If so, what management decisionswould they inform?4:45 pm Wrap-up and closing remarks [15 minutes]5:00 pm End of Day 224
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
Page 262 and 263: Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
Page 264 and 265: Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
Page 268 and 269: A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
Page 272 and 273: suggest any underlying mechanism, b
Page 274 and 275: Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
Page 278 and 279: Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
Page 281 and 282: Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
Page 283 and 284: Metric Connected to Biologically-su
Page 285 and 286: Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
Page 287 and 288: Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
Page 289 and 290: Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
Page 291 and 292: Table of ContentsTable of Contents
Page 293 and 294: PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
Page 295 and 296: and scope for improvement, particul
Page 297 and 298: Workshop participants pointed out t
Page 299 and 300: o Can you find the same shared tren
Page 301 and 302: generally better for Alaska sockeye
Page 303 and 304: Relative Likelihood of Alternative
Page 305: There was widespread agreement with
Page 308 and 309: Appendix A: List of Projects and In
Page 310 and 311: Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
Page 314 and 315: Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
Page 316 and 317: Levy urged researchers to bear in m
Page 318 and 319: within-population, within-brood-yea
Page 320 and 321: To address potential skepticism ove
Page 322 and 323: instead of migrating directly out i
Page 324 and 325: considered a good surrogate of temp
Page 326 and 327: Bristol Bay review: There are subst
Page 328 and 329: Method: The approach included formu
Page 330 and 331: Staley: Our project needs to compar
Page 332 and 333: Levy: It will go ahead in January.
Page 334 and 335: preliminary assessment of potential
Page 336 and 337: MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
Page 338 and 339: including Shuswap and North Thompso
Page 340 and 341: and biological variables. The combi
Page 342 and 343: temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
Page 344 and 345: Seasonal population distribution pa
Page 346 and 347: Information gaps: The most importan
Page 348 and 349: Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
Page 350 and 351: survey data, but they were looking
Page 352 and 353: was also shown that tagged fish ret
Page 354 and 355: English: There was extensive holdin
Page 356 and 357: periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
Page 358 and 359: Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
Page 360 and 361: Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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