Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

More documents

Recommendations

Info

ProjectNumberProject Variable Subset Location Life stage Age Typefreshwater)area-MarineStockCountMin of BroodYearMax ofBrood Year8Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count BC Brandts cormorant NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1956 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count BC Common merganser NULLSmolt outmigration-Freshwater4sub2 ALL 1956 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count BC Common murre NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1955 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count BC Cormorants, B+P NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1955 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count BC D-C cormorant NULLSmolt outmigration-Freshwater4sub2 ALL 1955 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count BC Gulls NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1955 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count BC Pelagic cormorant NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1955 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count -quantileCBC MGRR averageNULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1955 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Christmas Bird Count -quantileCBC SMLT averageNULLSmolt outmigration-Freshwater4sub2 ALL 1955 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Fish predatorsArrowtoothbiomassflounderNULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1959 20058Predation (marine andfreshwater)Fish predators Blue shark abundance NULLGrowth andmaturation-Marine4sub2 ALL 1977 20008Predation (marine andfreshwater)Fish predators Blue shark abundance NULLMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1976 19988Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped count California sea lions NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1969 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped count California sea lions NULLMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1967 20058Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped count Steller sea lion NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1911 20088Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped count Steller sea lion NULLMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1909 20068Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped estimate California sea lions NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1969 20078Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped estimate California sea lions NULLMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1967 20058Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped estimate Harbour seals NULLMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1911 20068Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped estimate Harbour seals NULLMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1909 20048 Predation (marine and Pinniped estimate Steller sea lion NULL Migration to rearing 4sub2 ALL 1911 2008188
ProjectNumberProject Variable Subset Location Life stage Age Typefreshwater)areas-MarineStockCountMin of BroodYearMax ofBrood Year8Predation (marine andfreshwater)Pinniped estimate Steller sea lion NULLMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1909 20069 Climate changeLFR water temp forreturning adultsNULLFraser Watershed -Migration AreasMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 18 1947 20069 Climate changeLFR water temp forreturning adults -QualitiativeNULLFraser Watershed -Migration AreasMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 18 1944 200612Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration April mean Central Georgia StraitMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentrationApril meanNorthernStraitGeorgiaMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration April mean Strait of Juan de FucaMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration August mean Central Georgia StraitMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration August mean Central Georgia StraitMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1994 200612Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentrationAugust meanNorthernStraitGeorgiaMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentrationAugust meanNorthernStraitGeorgiaMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1994 200612Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration August mean Strait of Juan de FucaMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration August mean Strait of Juan de FucaMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1994 200612Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration July mean Central Georgia StraitMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentration July mean Central Georgia StraitMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1994 200612Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryChlorophyll concentrationJuly meanNorthernStraitGeorgiaMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1996 200812 Lwr Fraser River andStrait of GeorgiaChlorophyll concentrationJuly meanNorthernStraitGeorgiaMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1994 2006189
Page 1:
April 2011technical report 6Fraser
Page 7 and 8:
Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
Page 9 and 10:
of multiple stressors and factors,
Page 11 and 12:
4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
Page 13 and 14:
List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
Page 16 and 17:
List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
Page 18 and 19:
these integrative frameworks, conve
Page 21 and 22:
2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
Page 23 and 24:
assumed that there is no potential
Page 25 and 26:
classes of stressors. However, if s
Page 27:
affected by many stressors over its
Page 30 and 31:
examples illustrate this problem --
Page 32 and 33:
possibly even negligible component
Page 34 and 35:
Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
Page 36 and 37:
3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
Page 38 and 39:
additional analyses to gain further
Page 40 and 41:
Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
Page 42 and 43:
This project is unusual in its scop
Page 45 and 46:
4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
Page 47 and 48:
Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
Page 49 and 50:
Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
Page 51 and 52:
Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
Page 53 and 54:
Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
Page 55 and 56:
o were generally worse during the l
Page 57 and 58:
Freshwater predators on juvenile so
Page 59 and 60:
copper, iron, mercury and silver).
Page 61 and 62:
Several analyses by MacDonald et al
Page 63 and 64:
abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
Page 65 and 66:
feel reasonably confident in this c
Page 67 and 68:
Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
Page 69 and 70:
in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
Page 71 and 72:
stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
Page 73 and 74:
There are many marine predators tha
Page 75 and 76:
assumption that exposure occurs whe
Page 77 and 78:
observations that are then averaged
Page 79 and 80:
Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
Page 81 and 82:
“likely” contributor to the ove
Page 83 and 84:
Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
Page 85 and 86:
Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
Page 87 and 88:
3. survival rates within key portio
Page 89 and 90:
2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
Page 91 and 92:
Historically, the majority of retur
Page 93 and 94:
salinity. There is much evidence th
Page 95 and 96:
declines (discussed in section 4.2
Page 97 and 98:
There is indisputable evidence of t
Page 99 and 100:
Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
Page 101 and 102:
correlation was statistically signi
Page 103 and 104:
4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
Page 105 and 106:
al (2010). The combined effect of a
Page 107 and 108:
more likely to suffer en-route and
Page 109 and 110:
Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
Page 111 and 112:
However, an important limitation is
Page 113 and 114:
Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
Page 115 and 116:
will likely have a high correlation
Page 117 and 118:
5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
Page 119 and 120:
Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
Page 121 and 122:
More specifically, the extended res
Page 123 and 124:
The twelve highest priority recomme
Page 125 and 126:
Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
Page 127 and 128:
6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
Page 129 and 130:
Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
Page 131:
Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
Page 134 and 135:
utilized to clarify the full range
Page 137 and 138:
Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
Page 139 and 140:
the conclusions of the Expert Panel
Page 141 and 142:
Response: Figure numbers have been
Page 143 and 144:
Response: This section has been com
Page 145 and 146:
ased on time or other stocks) to
Page 147 and 148:
them in terms of how changes in spa
Page 149 and 150:
efer to some variable being include
Page 151 and 152:
... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
Page 153 and 154: Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
Page 155 and 156: show stronger correlations. Hence,
Page 157 and 158: Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
Page 171 and 172: events occur, it should be possible
Page 173 and 174: I don’t have anything to add beyo
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
Page 182 and 183: A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
Page 184 and 185: Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
Page 186 and 187: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 188 and 189: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 190 and 191: A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
Page 192 and 193: Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
Page 194 and 195: Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
Page 196 and 197: Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
Page 198 and 199: Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
Page 200 and 201: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 212 and 213: The objective of our approach is to
Page 214 and 215: investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
Page 216 and 217: Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
Page 218 and 219: multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221: Change point analysis of productivi
Page 222 and 223: Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
Page 224 and 225: ecruits for this analysis as we wan
Page 226 and 227: exclude covariates with limited yea
Page 228 and 229: Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
Page 230 and 231: Status only data setsIn many cases
Page 232 and 233: The A-series of model sets based on
Page 234 and 235: with this report given the vast sco
Page 236 and 237: Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
Page 238 and 239: categories of stressors. We cannot
Page 240 and 241: o In some cases it may be the timin
Page 242 and 243: Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
Page 244 and 245: alance” over time and so this it
Page 246 and 247: Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
Page 248 and 249: Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
Page 250 and 251: A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
Page 252 and 253: Life stage Stressor category Variab
Page 254 and 255:
The results show strong support for
Page 256 and 257:
ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Page 258 and 259:
Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
Page 260 and 261:
A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
Page 262 and 263:
Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
Page 264 and 265:
Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
Page 266 and 267:
Page 268 and 269:
A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
Page 270 and 271:
Page 272 and 273:
suggest any underlying mechanism, b
Page 274 and 275:
Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
Page 276 and 277:
Page 278 and 279:
Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
Page 281 and 282:
Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
Page 283 and 284:
Metric Connected to Biologically-su
Page 285 and 286:
Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
Page 287 and 288:
Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
Page 289 and 290:
Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
Page 291 and 292:
Table of ContentsTable of Contents
Page 293 and 294:
PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
Page 295 and 296:
and scope for improvement, particul
Page 297 and 298:
Workshop participants pointed out t
Page 299 and 300:
o Can you find the same shared tren
Page 301 and 302:
generally better for Alaska sockeye
Page 303 and 304:
Relative Likelihood of Alternative
Page 305:
There was widespread agreement with
Page 308 and 309:
Appendix A: List of Projects and In
Page 310 and 311:
Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
Page 312 and 313:
MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
Page 314 and 315:
Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
Page 316 and 317:
Levy urged researchers to bear in m
Page 318 and 319:
within-population, within-brood-yea
Page 320 and 321:
To address potential skepticism ove
Page 322 and 323:
instead of migrating directly out i
Page 324 and 325:
considered a good surrogate of temp
Page 326 and 327:
Bristol Bay review: There are subst
Page 328 and 329:
Method: The approach included formu
Page 330 and 331:
Staley: Our project needs to compar
Page 332 and 333:
Levy: It will go ahead in January.
Page 334 and 335:
preliminary assessment of potential
Page 336 and 337:
MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
Page 338 and 339:
including Shuswap and North Thompso
Page 340 and 341:
and biological variables. The combi
Page 342 and 343:
temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
Page 344 and 345:
Seasonal population distribution pa
Page 346 and 347:
Information gaps: The most importan
Page 348 and 349:
Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
Page 350 and 351:
survey data, but they were looking
Page 352 and 353:
was also shown that tagged fish ret
Page 354 and 355:
English: There was extensive holdin
Page 356 and 357:
periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
Page 358 and 359:
Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
Page 360 and 361:
Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
Page 362 and 363:
Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
show all

Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?