Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.3.1Summary of analysesThis section describes the results of the regression analysis for each of the 6 model sets that wereexamined as part of this project (Table A4.3-1). Detailed descriptions of covariates included in atleast one of these 6 model sets are provided in Table A4.3-2.Table A4.3 -1. Description of the 6 model sets that were examined as part of this project.Model Set name Description Time period(by Brood year)A4c Comparison across life stages 1969-2001A4bComparison across life stages, with pink 1969-2001salmon includedB4c Comparison across stressor categories 1969-2001B4bComparison across stressor categories with 1969-2001pink salmon includedC4aComparison of all available marine data 1969-2004between SoG and QCS. No data for QCSSST.C3aComparison of all available marine data 1980-2004between SoG and QCS. Including QCSSST.C1aComparison of all available marine dataincluding chlorophyll for SoG and QCSseparately.1996-2004234
Table A4.3-2. Description of the actual covariates used in various model sets. Each covariate is linked to a particular life stage and stressor category 24 . Thedatabase variable name is provided to assist with interpreting the model outputs. Other covariates were available for other time-periods but were notexamined during this project.Life stage Stressor category Variable Description Database Variable Name Dates 25Coastal migration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Chlorophyll, Northern SoG, April average. CHL_M04_NSoG_MGRR_DOM 1998-Coastal migration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Chlorophyll, Northern SoG, May average. CHL_M05_NSoG_MGRR_DOM 1998-Coastal migration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG SoG discharge , June-July average DIS_A67_SoGx_MGRR_DOM 1970-Coastal migration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG SoG discharge, May average DIS_T05_SoGx_MGRR_DOM 1970-Coastal migration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Sea surface salinity. SoG, April-Aug average. SSS_A48_SoGx_MGRR_DOM 1950-Coastal migration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Sea surface temperature. SoG, April-Aug average. SST_A48_SoGx_MGRR_DOM 1950-Coastal migration Marine conditions Chlorophyll, QCS, April average. CHL_M04_QCSx_MGRR_DOM 1998-Coastal migration Marine conditions Chlorophyll, QCS, May average. CHL_M05_QCSx_MGRR_DOM 1998-Coastal migration Marine conditions QCS discharge, June-Sept average (Wannock) DIS_x69_QCSx_MGRR_DOM 1969-Coastal migration Marine conditions Sea surface salinity. QCS, April-Aug average. SSS_A48_QCSx_MGRR_DOM 1970-Coastal migration Marine conditions Sea surface temperature, QCS, July-Aug average SST_A78_QCSx_MGRR_DOM 1982-Coastal migration Marine conditions Summer wind regime. QCS. WND_x28_QCSx_MGRR_DOM 1948-Coastal migration Predator/Alternative Prey 5 marine bird species: Quantile based aggregateestimateCBQ_108_NULL_MGRR_DOM 1958-Coastal migration Predator/Alternative Prey Arrowtooth flounder biomass FPR_x87_NULL_MGRR_DOM 1961-Coastal migration Predator/Alternative Prey California sea lion estimate PNE_x25_NULL_MGRR_DOM 1971-Coastal migration Predator/Alternative Prey Harbour seal estimate PNE_x39_NULL_MGRR_DOM 1913-Coastal migration Predator/Alternative Prey Stellar sea lion PNE_x61_NULL_MGRR_DOM 1913-Coastal migration Predator/Alternative Prey Alternative prey quantile based aggregate estimateof 8 species/locations.PRQ_110_NULL_MGRR_DOM 1950-Growth in North Pacific Marine conditions North Pacific Index, Nov-Mar average NPI_x51_NPOx_GROW_DOM 1900-24 Each stressor category corresponds to a particular Cohen Technical project.25 Dates in this table refer to the earliest date a measurement is available. The date is the actual date the metric was measured not the brood year.235
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
Page 200 and 201: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 212 and 213: The objective of our approach is to
Page 214 and 215: investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
Page 216 and 217: Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
Page 218 and 219: multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221: Change point analysis of productivi
Page 222 and 223: Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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Page 226 and 227: exclude covariates with limited yea
Page 228 and 229: Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
Page 230 and 231: Status only data setsIn many cases
Page 232 and 233: The A-series of model sets based on
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Page 236 and 237: Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
Page 238 and 239: categories of stressors. We cannot
Page 240 and 241: o In some cases it may be the timin
Page 242 and 243: Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
Page 244 and 245: alance” over time and so this it
Page 246 and 247: Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
Page 248 and 249: Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
Page 252 and 253: Life stage Stressor category Variab
Page 254 and 255: The results show strong support for
Page 256 and 257: ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Page 258 and 259: Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
Page 260 and 261: A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
Page 262 and 263: Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
Page 264 and 265: Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
Page 268 and 269: A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
Page 272 and 273: suggest any underlying mechanism, b
Page 274 and 275: Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
Page 278 and 279: Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
Page 281 and 282: Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
Page 283 and 284: Metric Connected to Biologically-su
Page 285 and 286: Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
Page 287 and 288: Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
Page 289 and 290: Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
Page 291 and 292: Table of ContentsTable of Contents
Page 293 and 294: PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
Page 295 and 296: and scope for improvement, particul
Page 297 and 298: Workshop participants pointed out t
Page 299 and 300: o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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