Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Report Title: 6. Data Synthesis and Cumulative ImpactsReviewer Name: John D. Reynolds, Simon Fraser UniversityDate: 1 April 20111. Identify the strengths and weaknesses of this report.Strengths: well-organized, clear framework, integration of information from a largenumber of other technical reports as well as the workshop, compilation of largedatabase from those reports, new quantitative analyses from that database.Thank you.Weaknesses: apparent lack of consistency about what is meant by “productivity”, needfor impacts of potential stressors to be combined more clearly into a more “cumulative”synthesis.Response: We have defined productivity in both the Executive Summary and Introduction,and have added further discussion of cumulative impacts over the life cycle in Section 4.7.2. Evaluate the interpretation of the available data, and the validity of any derivedconclusions. Overall, does the report represent the best scientific interpretationof the available data?The data interpretations seem fine, including the conclusions for impacts on each stageof the life cycle, summarized in a separate table in each section. I agree with theinterpretations, and with the reasons given.3. Are there additional quantitative or qualitative ways to evaluate the subjectarea not considered in this report? How could the analysis be improved?The basic analytical framework, based on multiple regressions and information theoreticmethods, seems fine.4. Are the recommendations provided in this report supportable? Do you haveany further recommendations to add?Yes, the recommendations seem fine. We could also add more, but the benefits offurther research and analyses beyond those suggested would need to be weighedcarefully against the costs.Response: We have added further discussion of the criteria and process that should be usedto refine and prioritize our recommendations (in Section 5.2.2).5. What information, if any, should be collected in the future to improve ourunderstanding of this subject area?156
I don’t have anything to add beyond what has been recommended.6. Please provide any specific comments for the authors.I like the approach of considering the potential cumulative impacts from a life historyperspective of the fish, i.e. following the fish through their life cycle and consideringexposure to each potential impact along the way. It is unfortunate that the Aquaculturetechnical report was not available to the authors at the time of writing, and theCommission should bear that in mind when evaluating these interim conclusions.Response: We have reiterated this point (i.e. conclusions do not include information onaquaculture) in each of the relevant sections (i.e. Executive Summary, Coastal migrationlife stage (4.4.4, 4.4.5 and 4.4.7), and Conclusions (5.1, 5.2)).The authors have done a good job of summarizing the information from the othertechnical reports, and also compiling data from those reports so that they could do theirown integrative analyses. I agree with their view that the database that they havecompiled could be the first step toward an important long-term resource, and I hope theCommission will consider recommendations that could lead to further development. Ihave always felt that information such as this should be much more accessible, andperhaps long-term funding could be made available to the Pacific Salmon Commissionor some other organization to take this on.Response: In response to a comment by Dr. Peterman on the form of such a database, wehave expanded the discussion in Section 5.2.2.The general analytical approach, involving multiple regressions analyzed within aninformation-theoretic framework, seems like the right way to go. I agree with theauthors’ logic in using multiple partial analyses rather than attempting one grandanalysis, given missing values in data sets, and the need to account for too manyvariables at once. The authors reduced the number of variables through commonsense about which might be informative, as well as through Principal ComponentsAnalysis. They could also have considered using Variance Inflation Factors to test formulticollinearity as a basis for dropping variables, as an alternative or adjunct to the useof PCA. But as long as the PCA axes are interpretable, this approach seems fine.Response: We have substantially improved the clarity of our description of the methods weused (in a new Section 3.3.6, as well as in Appendix 3).The conclusion follows the structure of the rest of the report, in breaking up theanalyses by life stage. But I felt that what’s missing is a final section putting the lifestages back together, and integrating across all of the possible or likely stressors. Inother words, I would have liked to have seen a final section that fully tackles the“cumulative” in cumulative impacts. This would match the detailed section that wasprovided describing what cumulative impacts mean.157
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
Page 121 and 122: More specifically, the extended res
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Page 125 and 126: Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
Page 127 and 128: 6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
Page 129 and 130: Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
Page 131: Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
Page 134 and 135: utilized to clarify the full range
Page 137 and 138: Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
Page 139 and 140: the conclusions of the Expert Panel
Page 141 and 142: Response: Figure numbers have been
Page 143 and 144: Response: This section has been com
Page 145 and 146: ased on time or other stocks) to
Page 147 and 148: them in terms of how changes in spa
Page 149 and 150: efer to some variable being include
Page 151 and 152: ... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
Page 153 and 154: Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
Page 155 and 156: show stronger correlations. Hence,
Page 157 and 158: Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
Page 171: events occur, it should be possible
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
Page 182 and 183: A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
Page 184 and 185: Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
Page 186 and 187: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 188 and 189: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 190 and 191: A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
Page 192 and 193: Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
Page 194 and 195: Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
Page 196 and 197: Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
Page 198 and 199: Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
Page 200 and 201: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 212 and 213: The objective of our approach is to
Page 214 and 215: investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
Page 216 and 217: Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
Page 218 and 219: multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221: Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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