Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment factors for the 4 2 age type (used for all stocks except Harrison).AgeType Adjustment Life stage Name4sub2 0 Spawning-Freshwater4sub2 -1 Incubation-Freshwater4sub2 -1 Emergence-Freshwater4sub2 -1 Freshwater rearing4sub2 -2 Freshwater rearing4sub2 -2 Smolt outmigration-Freshwater4sub2 -2 Estuary rearing4sub2 -2 Migration to rearing areas-Marine4sub2 -2 Growth and maturation-Marine4sub2 -3 Growth and maturation-Marine4sub2 -4 Migration to spawning area-Marine4sub2 -4 Spawning-FreshwaterThe unique lifecycle of the Harrison stock is captured in the BroodYearAdjustments tableunder the 4 1 age type (Table A3.4-6). Although not shown here, the subdominant agetype brood year adjustments are also captured in the BroodYearAdjustments table (agetype 5 2 for all stocks except Harrison, age type 3 1 for Harrison). Brood year adjustmentswere made for the subdominant age classes however, at present, no analyses have beenperformed on these data.Table A3.4-6. Brood year adjustment factors for the 4 1 age type Harrison stock.StockName AgeType Adjustment Life stage NameHarrison 4sub1 0 Spawning-FreshwaterHarrison 4sub1 -1 Incubation-FreshwaterHarrison 4sub1 -1 Emergence-FreshwaterHarrison 4sub1 -1 Smolt outmigration-FreshwaterHarrison 4sub1 -1 Estuary rearingHarrison 4sub1 -1 Migration to rearing areas-MarineHarrison 4sub1 -1 Growth and maturation-MarineHarrison 4sub1 -2 Growth and maturation-MarineHarrison 4sub1 -3 Growth and maturation-MarineHarrison 4sub1 -4 Migration to spawning area-MarineHarrison 4sub1 -4 Spawning-FreshwaterA series of queries were run to format data for output and adjust the observation year datato brood year. First, data was pulled from 4 tables to format it succinctly for the broodyear adjustments (Figure A3.4-2). Each observation data value was aligned with itsvariable, variable subset, observation year, stock, location, and life stage.178
Figure A3.4-3. Querying data to prepare for brood year adjustment.These data were stored in a temporary table called OutputQuant. The stock and life stagevalues were used to join the OutputQuant table to the BroodYearAdjustment table(Figure A3.4-3).Figure A3.4-4 The query used to make the brood year adjustments.Observation years were adjusted to brood years based on stock, life stage and age-type.An example output from the brood year adjustment process is shown in Table A.3-4. Forthe 4 2 age type, the sockeye salmon from brood year 1985 would have experienced the1987 August mean sea surface temperature of 12.859 °C in Queen Charlotte Sound asthey migrated along the coast to their marine rearing areas. Two years later, the samesockeye salmon (brood year 1985) would have experienced the 1989 August mean seasurface temperature in Queen Charlotte sound of 14.83 °C if they migrated back to theirspawning areas via the northern diversion.179
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
Page 143 and 144: Response: This section has been com
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Page 147 and 148: them in terms of how changes in spa
Page 149 and 150: efer to some variable being include
Page 151 and 152: ... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
Page 153 and 154: Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
Page 155 and 156: show stronger correlations. Hence,
Page 157 and 158: Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
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Page 173 and 174: I don’t have anything to add beyo
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
Page 182 and 183: A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
Page 184 and 185: Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
Page 186 and 187: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 188 and 189: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 190 and 191: A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
Page 192 and 193: Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
Page 196 and 197: Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
Page 198 and 199: Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
Page 200 and 201: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 212 and 213: The objective of our approach is to
Page 214 and 215: investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
Page 216 and 217: Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
Page 218 and 219: multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221: Change point analysis of productivi
Page 222 and 223: Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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Page 226 and 227: exclude covariates with limited yea
Page 228 and 229: Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Page 232 and 233: The A-series of model sets based on
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Page 236 and 237: Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
Page 238 and 239: categories of stressors. We cannot
Page 240 and 241: o In some cases it may be the timin
Page 242 and 243: Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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