Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in the Metadata table for Queen Charlotte Sound August mean sea surfacetemperature data.TOCOnlyMetadataID 27ProjectID 4VariableIDSubsetIDStressorCatIDUnitIDLocationIDSpecificLocationSpatTempAggDetailsEstimationDetailsObservationTypeIDConfidenceIDInterestQuestionQualitativeCommentsSourceFileNameFALSESea surface temperatureAugust meanMarine conditions - physicalDegrees CelsiusQueen Charlotte SoundQCS SST data, average values on the 3 grid points. Correlations among grid points from 1982are ~0.995August average. Data from: ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/sst/oimonth_v2/YEARLY_FILES/MeasuredWere there extremes in sea surface temperature that could have been responsible for extrememortality of Fraser River sockeye but not others (Columbia River or Barkley Sound)?QCS_SST.xlsThe actual observation data was imported to the QuantitativeData table (or theQualitativeData table where qualitative data was provided). Each entry in theQuantitativeData table is linked to a metadata record. The table MetadataLife stagesassociates the metadata records with the applicable life stage(s).For example, Table A3.4-3 shows the life stage associations for the August mean seasurface temperature data (MetadataID 27).Table A3.4-3. The MetadataLife stages table associates the Queen Charlotte Sound August mean seasurface temperature data (MetadataID 27) with two life stages.MetadataIDLife stage Name27 Migration to rearing areas-Marine27 Migration to spawning area-MarineObservation year to brood year adjustments are based on the BroodYearAdjustmentstable. This table contains the adjustment factor for each stock, life stage and age type.Table A3.4-4 shows the summary of the life history of Fraser River sockeye salmon thatwas used to determine the appropriate adjustments to make for each life stage. TableA3.4-5 shows the brood year adjustments used for the dominant age type of all stocksexcept Harrison, as expressed in the database.176
Table A3.4-4. Summary of the life history of the Fraser River sockeye salmon. This table shows the timingof major stages and processes for the dominant age-types, including the year (relative to broodyear) during which each occurs. This information was used to guide the process of aligning theobservation values within each received data series with the brood year to which it would apply.BY = brood year. SoG = Strait of Georgia. LFR = Lower Fraser River. Sources: Burgner (1991);McKinnell et al. (2011)Life historyDevelopmentalStageProcessTiming of Dominant Age-TypeAll non-Harrison Fraser River stocks(age-type 4 2 )Harrison stock(age-type 4 1 )Season Year Comment Season Year CommentEGG Spawning Aug-Nov BY BYIncubation Winter BY+1 Winter BY+1ALEVINEmergenceApril -early JuneSummer - BY+1FRY toPARRFreshwaterrearingWinterWinter - BY+2SpringSMOLT Outmigration April/May BY+2BY+2POST-SMOLTADULTEstuaryrearingSoG passageCoastalmigrationGrowth andmaturation inNorth PacificMigratetowardsFraser RiverLower FraserRiver passageUpstreammigrationSpawningBY+1 Spring BY+1minimal orn/aby late May BY+2 dispersedN&W fromFraserbyJune/JulybyAug/Septby lateAutumn/earlyWinterBY+2BY+2BY+2BY+3most leftSoGspreadalong coastmoveoffshoreSpring/SummerBY+1 up to 5months inestuaryby late July BY+1 enter FraserplumebyBY+1 dispersed intoAug/SeptSoGby Autumn BY+1 migration tocontinentalshelfBY+1BY+2BY+3Spring BY+4 Spring BY+4July - earlySeptmid-June -mid-OctBY+4BY+4BY+4PassingthroughStrait ofGeorgiaFiner scaleby runtiminggroupmid-Aug -early OctBY+4late run groupAug-Nov BY+4 Sept-Oct BY+4 (based onLFR passage)177
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
Page 141 and 142: Response: Figure numbers have been
Page 143 and 144: Response: This section has been com
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Page 147 and 148: them in terms of how changes in spa
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Page 151 and 152: ... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
Page 153 and 154: Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
Page 155 and 156: show stronger correlations. Hence,
Page 157 and 158: Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
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Page 173 and 174: I don’t have anything to add beyo
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
Page 182 and 183: A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
Page 184 and 185: Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
Page 186 and 187: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 188 and 189: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 190 and 191: A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
Page 194 and 195: Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
Page 196 and 197: Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
Page 198 and 199: Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
Page 200 and 201: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 212 and 213: The objective of our approach is to
Page 214 and 215: investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
Page 216 and 217: Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
Page 218 and 219: multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221: Change point analysis of productivi
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Page 226 and 227: exclude covariates with limited yea
Page 228 and 229: Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Page 236 and 237: Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
Page 238 and 239: categories of stressors. We cannot
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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