Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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This assessment should be the contractor’s best guess at the LEVEL of a particular stressor, notthe actual IMPACT of that stressor on sockeye productivity. Contractors should provide theirqualitative ratings independent of the productivity data (i.e. do not assign ratings based onlooking at the productivity data, as that would make the ratings biased and unusable in ESSA’sanalyses). Stock X may have been subject to a low level of pollution prior to 1985, butincreased to a high level of pollution when a pulp mill was built. Similarchanges may have occurred at other times for other stocks. The “level” of salmon farms might reflect the total number or the totalproduction capacity over time and apply to all stocks migrating past each setof farms. Some metrics may have remained at relatively constant levels over thetimeframe indicated.If it is not possible to distinguish among multiple quantitative metrics in making qualitativejudgments for the entire period of record, contractors may choose to qualitatively evaluate only asingle overarching measure for their particular stressor.Template InstructionsGeneral• Examples are included. Overwrite these with your own input.• Many cells contain comments with additional guidance. Look for cells with red trianglesand hold your cursor over such a cell to read the comment.• Much of the template is protected. You should not need to edit protected cells.Opportunities for including descriptive comments are included throughout the template.• Many of the drop-down menus provide flexibility to add additional items as necessary.Additional items can be added by finding the relevant list on the “Lists” worksheet andentering new values.• IMPORTANT: “Year” refers to the year of data measurement, NOT the brood yearpotentially affected. Data will be adjusted later as necessary based on its associated lifehistory stage. Do not adjust metrics for brood year.268
Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet: Initial Conceptual Model)This model originated from the work of the Pacific Salmon Commission workshop in June 2010.It is intended to be a DRAFT STARTING POINT. Please comment on missing components,mechanisms, or processes, while recognizing that this is meant to be a high level model of theentire system (but feel free to also provide more detailed conceptual models of the stressors andsub-systems you are investigating). Please refer to this initial model when describing thespatial/temporal questions that each metric is intended to address.Project-level Information (Worksheet: Project Info)This worksheet contains information applicable to entire submission and should be selfexplanatory.Integrative Metric (Worksheet: Metric1)Each metric will have its own worksheet. However, the quantitative data and qualitativeevaluation of a particular metric are entered on the same worksheet.Each worksheet has a detailed metric-specific metadata section, a section for enteringquantitative data for the metric, then a section for entering the qualitatively determined data forthe metric. Each section is explained below and there are examples in the actual template.Quantitative MetricMetadataStressor nameThe name of the particular index or variable.Stressor categoryAssociated Cohen Commission project.UnitsThe units that apply to the reported values.General locationIdentify the general region with which this metric isassociated.Specific locations used Provide details on spatial locations of underlying datafrom which the metric is derived.Spatial and temporal aggregation detailsIf necessary, how were data from different spatiallocations aggregated into a single metric? How wereannual values determined? How were sub-annual dataaggregated?269
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
Page 234 and 235: with this report given the vast sco
Page 236 and 237: Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
Page 238 and 239: categories of stressors. We cannot
Page 240 and 241: o In some cases it may be the timin
Page 242 and 243: Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
Page 244 and 245: alance” over time and so this it
Page 246 and 247: Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
Page 248 and 249: Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
Page 250 and 251: A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
Page 252 and 253: Life stage Stressor category Variab
Page 254 and 255: The results show strong support for
Page 256 and 257: ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Page 258 and 259: Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
Page 260 and 261: A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
Page 262 and 263: Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
Page 264 and 265: Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
Page 268 and 269: A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
Page 272 and 273: suggest any underlying mechanism, b
Page 274 and 275: Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
Page 278 and 279: Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
Page 281 and 282: Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
Page 283: Metric Connected to Biologically-su
Page 287 and 288: Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
Page 289 and 290: Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
Page 291 and 292: Table of ContentsTable of Contents
Page 293 and 294: PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
Page 295 and 296: and scope for improvement, particul
Page 297 and 298: Workshop participants pointed out t
Page 299 and 300: o Can you find the same shared tren
Page 301 and 302: generally better for Alaska sockeye
Page 303 and 304: Relative Likelihood of Alternative
Page 305: There was widespread agreement with
Page 308 and 309: Appendix A: List of Projects and In
Page 310 and 311: Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
Page 312 and 313: MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
Page 314 and 315: Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
Page 316 and 317: Levy urged researchers to bear in m
Page 318 and 319: within-population, within-brood-yea
Page 320 and 321: To address potential skepticism ove
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Page 324 and 325: considered a good surrogate of temp
Page 326 and 327: Bristol Bay review: There are subst
Page 328 and 329: Method: The approach included formu
Page 330 and 331: Staley: Our project needs to compar
Page 332 and 333: Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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