Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subset Location Life stage Age Typehabitat inventoryStockCountMin of BroodYearMax ofBrood Year12Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventorySolid waste disposed Strait of Juan de Fuca Strait of Juan de FucaMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1986 200212Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryTotal dredge volume Lower Fraser Lower Fraser RiverSmolt outmigration-Freshwater4sub2 ALL 1968 200412Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryTotal farm area Lower Fraser Lower Fraser RiverSmolt outmigration-Freshwater4sub2 ALL 1989 200412Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryTotal farm area Strait of Georgia Strait of GeorgiaMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1989 200412Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryTotal farm area Strait of Georgia Strait of GeorgiaMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1987 200212Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryTotal farm area Strait of Juan de Fuca Strait of Juan de FucaMigration to rearingareas-Marine4sub2 ALL 1989 200412Lwr Fraser River andStrait of Georgiahabitat inventoryTotal farm area Strait of Juan de Fuca Strait of Juan de FucaMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1987 200299 Pink Salmon Pink salmon abundance ALL North PacificOther North PacificOceanMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1948 200199 Pink Salmon Pink salmon abundance NE PacificOther North PacificOceanMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1948 200199 Pink Salmon Pink salmon abundance RussiaOther North PacificOceanMigration to spawningarea-Marine4sub2 ALL 1948 2001194
A3.5 Data AnalysisA3.5.1 Qualitative analysesWe have employed a series of integrative frameworks to illustrate potential cumulative impactsof multiple stressors on Fraser River sockeye salmon over time and space. Where appropriate wehave taken a life history approach to cumulative impact analysis. The frameworks utilized are:a) a weight of evidence framework for retrospective ecological risk assessmentb) a conceptual model comprising a life history diagram with the pathways of differentstressors (including both direct and delayed effects);c) a spatial life history diagram illustrating the spatial scale of the sockeye’s life cycle andthe location of different stressors (as data permits); andd) an expert-driven evaluation of the relative likelihood of each given hypothesis, buildingon the Expert Panel Report to the Pacific Salmon Commission on the Decline of FraserSockeye (Peterman et al. 2010)A weight of evidence approach to retrospective ecological risk assessment 19Weight of EvidenceIn the present project we apply a weight of evidence (WOE) approach to synthesize evidencepresented across the scientific and technical projects, incorporate new evidence generated by thestatistical analyses for select data put forth by the contractors for each project, and assess theoverall likelihood. Weed (2005) conducted a review of the concept of WOE and its associatedmethods. He concluded that although the term is used throughout the scientific literature, it maybe used to represent many different types of methodologies from established formal methods toinformal metaphorical perspectives and that no common definition exists. Weed (2005)emphasizes that given the variation in the use of the term, it is critical to define what “WOE”means in the context of any given research project.The two key objectives defining our WOE approach are:1. Use the full breadth of evidence presented within the Cohen Commission projects.2. Synthesize and evaluate the evidence within a logical and systematic framework.19 This section represents an expanded description of the Weight of Evidence Approach to Retrospective EcologicalRisk Assessment already presented in Section 3.3.5 of the main body of the report. The present section expandsupon Section 3.3.5, providing a much more thorough explanation of the approach, especially with regards to thefoundational literature upon which our approach is based. Consequently, the material in Section 3.3.5 is repeatedhere.195
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
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Page 173 and 174: I don’t have anything to add beyo
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
Page 182 and 183: A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
Page 184 and 185: Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
Page 186 and 187: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 188 and 189: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 190 and 191: A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
Page 192 and 193: Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
Page 194 and 195: Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
Page 196 and 197: Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
Page 198 and 199: Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
Page 200 and 201: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 212 and 213: The objective of our approach is to
Page 214 and 215: investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
Page 216 and 217: Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
Page 218 and 219: multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221: Change point analysis of productivi
Page 222 and 223: Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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Page 226 and 227: exclude covariates with limited yea
Page 228 and 229: Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
Page 230 and 231: Status only data setsIn many cases
Page 232 and 233: The A-series of model sets based on
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Page 236 and 237: Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
Page 238 and 239: categories of stressors. We cannot
Page 240 and 241: o In some cases it may be the timin
Page 242 and 243: Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
Page 244 and 245: alance” over time and so this it
Page 246 and 247: Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
Page 248 and 249: Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
Page 250 and 251: A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
Page 252 and 253: Life stage Stressor category Variab
Page 254 and 255: The results show strong support for
Page 256 and 257: ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Page 258 and 259: Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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