Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructive feedback on the findings of research projects, based onknowledge of Fraser River sockeye, ecosystem processes and other factors affecting survival ofsalmon that may have contributed to the observed decline. Suggest linkages and interactionsamong research projects.Cohen Commission Science Staff: Listen to presentations and ask clarification questions.Provide updates on recent progress of the Commission.Cohen Commission Participants: Not in attendance.Public: Not in attendance.
Workshop AgendaNovember 30 th , 2010 (Day 1)8:00 am Workshop start [coffee and pastries provided]Welcome and Overview[1.5 hours]8:15 am Introduction of participants; review of workshop objectives, agenda, principles,code of conduct, roles, and task processes. [David Marmorek; 30 min]8:45 am Cohen Commission welcome and introduction [David Levy; 15 min] Welcome from Cohen Commission Science Staff Update on Cohen Commission progress9:00 am Challenges and Opportunities [David Marmorek; 30 min] building on past work (e.g. PSC Panel) key ideas and questions cumulative effects conceptsCohen Commission Science Research Program Presentations9:30 am Productivity Dynamics [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]Randall Peterman, Brigitte Dorner10:15 am Break [15 minutes]10:30 am Conservation Unit Status [15 min presentation, 15 min discussion]ESSA Technologies11:00 am Fisheries [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]LGL11:45 pm DFO Science & Management [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]Counterpoint12:30 pm Lunch [1 hour] – lunch provided1:30 pm Diseases and Parasites [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]Michael Kent2:15 pm Contaminants [20 min presentation, 20 min discussion]22
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
Page 260 and 261: A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
Page 262 and 263: Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
Page 264 and 265: Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
Page 268 and 269: A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
Page 272 and 273: suggest any underlying mechanism, b
Page 274 and 275: Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
Page 278 and 279: Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
Page 281 and 282: Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
Page 283 and 284: Metric Connected to Biologically-su
Page 285 and 286: Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
Page 287 and 288: Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
Page 289 and 290: Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
Page 291 and 292: Table of ContentsTable of Contents
Page 293 and 294: PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
Page 295 and 296: and scope for improvement, particul
Page 297 and 298: Workshop participants pointed out t
Page 299 and 300: o Can you find the same shared tren
Page 301 and 302: generally better for Alaska sockeye
Page 303 and 304: Relative Likelihood of Alternative
Page 305: There was widespread agreement with
Page 308 and 309: Appendix A: List of Projects and In
Page 312 and 313: MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
Page 314 and 315: Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
Page 316 and 317: Levy urged researchers to bear in m
Page 318 and 319: within-population, within-brood-yea
Page 320 and 321: To address potential skepticism ove
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Page 324 and 325: considered a good surrogate of temp
Page 326 and 327: Bristol Bay review: There are subst
Page 328 and 329: Method: The approach included formu
Page 330 and 331: Staley: Our project needs to compar
Page 332 and 333: Levy: It will go ahead in January.
Page 334 and 335: preliminary assessment of potential
Page 336 and 337: MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
Page 338 and 339: including Shuswap and North Thompso
Page 340 and 341: and biological variables. The combi
Page 342 and 343: temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
Page 344 and 345: Seasonal population distribution pa
Page 346 and 347: Information gaps: The most importan
Page 348 and 349: Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
Page 350 and 351: survey data, but they were looking
Page 352 and 353: was also shown that tagged fish ret
Page 354 and 355: English: There was extensive holdin
Page 356 and 357: periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
Page 358 and 359: Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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