Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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now needs a thorough copy editing to clean up poor grammar, incomplete sentences,extra or missing words, errors in figure numbers, missing references, repeated pagenumbers in the Executive Summary and the main text starting with the Introduction, etc.Response: The final report has now received much more thorough copy editing than waspossible for the draft report (given our tight time constraints), addressing the itemsmentioned by the reviewer above and more.2. Page 2 of Executive Summary, last paragraph - The sentence starting with "For eachlife stage, we considered..." should be changed to a numbered or bulleted list; it is toohard to read.Response: We have changed this sentence to be more readable.3. Further on in that paragraph, emphasize that your categories "unlikely, possible,likely, or very likely" are listed in order of increasing confidence. Although that is obvioushere, much later you have many hypotheses where you state "possible" and it may notbe clear to readers at that point where that category sits along the spectrum.Response: Rewritten to emphasize relationship between classifications and confidence.4. Page 3 bullet item 1 - You must define what you mean by productivity. Given that oneof your objectives is clear communication with non-technical readers, this type ofambiguity should be removed from all jargon terms in the report.Response: We have provided an explicit definition of what we mean by “productivity” bothin the Executive Summary and where the term first occurs in the main report (Section 1.1).5. The term "inshore migration" should be replaced throughout this document by"coastal migration"; the latter is clearer as well as more common.Response: We have replaced the term “inshore migration” with “coastal migration”throughout the report.6. Page 5 of Executive Summary, last paragraph - define "PSC report" and brieflyexplain the workshop process that it summarizes.Response: Done.7. Page 22, 4th line - insert "substantially" between "were" and "affected".Response: Done.8. Figures numbered 4.1-3 through 4.1-5 have incorrect figure numbers according toreferences to them in the main text.124
Response: Figure numbers have been corrected.9. The figure currently numbered 4.1-5 (colored stacked bar plots) has something wrongwith the year labels and legends, which makes them appear splotchy and hard to read.Response: This figure has been reproduced both with higher resolution and larger fonts forthe labels to improve its readability.10. Page 31 - The main heading should be reworded by inserting "of observed patternsin productivity" between "Implications" and "for analysis".Response: Done.11. Page 32 - Regarding the italicized note to reviewers: those generalizations seemfine.Response: Comment removed from final report. Original comment:“Note to reviewers: The above generalizations inevitably have some oversimplifications,so tweaks are undoubtedly required. We desire a concise summary ofattributes.”12. The summary tables in the conclusions sections on each life stage are very useful(page 40 for example).Response: Thank you for confirming that these tables have met their intended objective.13. The Selbie (2010) reference is missing at the back.Response: Reference added.14. Your reference to that Selbie paper implies that you also have access to the otherpapers from the PSC workshop in June of 2010. Therefore, I recommend that you drawupon the evidence presented by John Ford at that workshop concerning the increasingand large population of Steller sea lions (~ 60,000 animals in B.C. and SoutheastAlaska in 2009). Ford also pointed out that a substantial part of their diet (~12 to 31%)comes from salmonids (not yet identified down to species). This information on Stellersea lion predation should be inserted into the last paragraph on page 50 and carriedthrough to other similar sections later.Response: This information has been included. The diet data to which the reviewer refers(presented both by John Ford at the PSC Workshop and Andrew Trites at the CohenCommission Science Workshop, originally from P.F. Olesiuk, unpublished), measures theproportion of scat samples containing salmonids. That is, approximately 12-31% (varyingby season) of the samples contained salmon but that does not mean that salmon make up125
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
Page 89 and 90: 2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
Page 91 and 92: Historically, the majority of retur
Page 93 and 94: salinity. There is much evidence th
Page 95 and 96: declines (discussed in section 4.2
Page 97 and 98: There is indisputable evidence of t
Page 99 and 100: Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
Page 101 and 102: correlation was statistically signi
Page 103 and 104: 4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
Page 105 and 106: al (2010). The combined effect of a
Page 107 and 108: more likely to suffer en-route and
Page 109 and 110: Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
Page 111 and 112: However, an important limitation is
Page 113 and 114: Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
Page 115 and 116: will likely have a high correlation
Page 117 and 118: 5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
Page 119 and 120: Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
Page 121 and 122: More specifically, the extended res
Page 123 and 124: The twelve highest priority recomme
Page 125 and 126: Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
Page 127 and 128: 6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
Page 129 and 130: Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
Page 131: Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
Page 134 and 135: utilized to clarify the full range
Page 137 and 138: Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
Page 139: the conclusions of the Expert Panel
Page 143 and 144: Response: This section has been com
Page 145 and 146: ased on time or other stocks) to
Page 147 and 148: them in terms of how changes in spa
Page 149 and 150: efer to some variable being include
Page 151 and 152: ... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
Page 153 and 154: Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
Page 155 and 156: show stronger correlations. Hence,
Page 157 and 158: Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
Page 171 and 172: events occur, it should be possible
Page 173 and 174: I don’t have anything to add beyo
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
Page 182 and 183: A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
Page 184 and 185: Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
Page 186 and 187: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 188 and 189: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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