Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Appendix 3. Data and MethodsA3.1 Appendix OutlineThis appendix provides a detailed description of the data used and methods applied in the presentreport. The subsequent subsections explain:1) the process of collecting data from the other technical reports, including the datatemplate and data requirements provided to contractors submitting data;2) the data that was ultimately received from the other technical reports;3) the process of compiling and integrating the collected data into a central database andpreparing it for analysis; and,4) the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods applied in this report.A3.2 Data CollectionTo facilitate the acquisition of the necessary data sets and associated metadata from eachscientific research project, we designed an Excel template and an accompanying set ofguidelines. The Cohen Commission distributed these data templates to all appropriate scientificcontractors in late September, with a deadline of November 1, 2010 for submitting the requesteddata, corresponding with the deadline for the submission of project progress reports. Theobjective of this template was to collect the necessary data in a consistent format, facilitating arange of quantitative and qualitative analyses exploring the relative and cumulative impacts ofdifferent stressors on Fraser sockeye productivity. Several project submitted data on November1, 2010, but by the end of 2011, data had only been received four out of the seven project thatwould be submitting data for the cumulative impacts analysis. The outstanding data were acritical component of the cumulative impacts, representing over 70% of the final set of variablesincluded. These data were received in mid to late January, forcing a compressed timeline for theremaining tasks associated with the organization and preparation of data (Section A3.4), thesubsequent analyses of these data (Section A3.5), and the interpretation of the results (Appendix4).We recognized from the outset that data limitations would vary in severity by stressor andparticular metric, including limited time spans of data, gaps in the time series, and onlyqualitative estimates for some years/metrics/stocks rather than quantitative measurements. Thedata template was designed with flexibility to accommodate these potential issues. The datatemplate user guidelines are included in Appendix 5.165
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
Page 129 and 130: Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
Page 131: Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
Page 134 and 135: utilized to clarify the full range
Page 137 and 138: Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
Page 139 and 140: the conclusions of the Expert Panel
Page 141 and 142: Response: Figure numbers have been
Page 143 and 144: Response: This section has been com
Page 145 and 146: ased on time or other stocks) to
Page 147 and 148: them in terms of how changes in spa
Page 149 and 150: efer to some variable being include
Page 151 and 152: ... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
Page 153 and 154: Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
Page 155 and 156: show stronger correlations. Hence,
Page 157 and 158: Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
Page 159 and 160: a single database for other researc
Page 161 and 162: Response: We have removed the itali
Page 163 and 164: evidence unique to each life stage.
Page 165 and 166: Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
Page 167 and 168: Response: We have further emphasize
Page 169 and 170: 5. I would also encourage the autho
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Page 173 and 174: I don’t have anything to add beyo
Page 175 and 176: constitutes an exposure to human ac
Page 177 and 178: 3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
Page 179: most likely contributors to the rec
Page 183 and 184: A3.2.2 Qualitative assessment data
Page 185 and 186: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 187 and 188: 8888888888ProjectNumber Project Nam
Page 189 and 190: ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
Page 191 and 192: Each data product received from the
Page 193 and 194: Table A3.4-4. Summary of the life h
Page 195 and 196: Figure A3.4-3. Querying data to pre
Page 197 and 198: An example of final output data fro
Page 199 and 200: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 207 and 208: ProjectNumber1212121212121212121212
Page 209 and 210: ProjectNumber1212121212121212121212
Page 211 and 212: A3.5 Data AnalysisA3.5.1 Qualitativ
Page 213 and 214: 1. The adverse ecological impact ha
Page 215 and 216: 7. Removal:“Has the removal of th
Page 217 and 218: Conceptual modelIn the U.S. Council
Page 219 and 220: Table A3.5-1. Complete summary of a
Page 221 and 222: egression model: β β xt + β ( x
Page 223 and 224: Figure A3.5-2. This is an example o
Page 225 and 226: as likely to be important by each o
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Page 229 and 230: observations were given a value of
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Table A3.5-3. Summary of appropriat
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Table A3.5-4. Description of the 6
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(Equation A3.5-3) provided a better
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Model selectionWe use the Burnham a
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Limitationso We only considered the
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Bayesian belief networks (BBN)BBNs
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(Fennell), which is equivalent to a
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Figure A4.2-2. Stock composition, s
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Figure A4.2-4. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-6. Stock composition fo
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Table A4.3-2. Description of the ac
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A4.3.2Model: A4cBrood years: 1969-2
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Table A4.3-5. Estimates for all fix
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Model: A4bBrood years: 1969-2001A s
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ModelSet_A4b_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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M8 No stressor variables added. 0 1
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ModelSet_B4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-11. B4b candidate models
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ModelSet_B4b_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-14. C4a candidate models
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Model: C3a1980-2004A model set was
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Table A4.3-18. Estimates for all fi
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Table A4.3-20. QCS C1a candidate mo
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Table A4.3-22. Model specifications
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Table A4.3-24. Estimates for all fi
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Overview of Required Input DataInte
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This assessment should be the contr
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Estimation detailsObservation typeC
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Given the above definitions, you sh
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Technical and Scientific Research P
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BackgroundIn response to the declin
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aw data, the range of error around
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government documents and interviews
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for all CUs should not rule out usi
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Key issues raised by workshop parti
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Quantitative analysis will use inte
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o Changes inside Strait of Georgia
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ReferencesFaber-Langendoen, D., L.
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Appendix B: Workshop AgendaTechnica
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Workshop AgendaNovember 30 th , 201
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3:00 pm Break [15 minutes]• Exami
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Cohen Commission welcome and introd
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Challenges and OpportunitiesDave Ma
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Conclusion #1: Most other BC and La
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Peterman: That was done and it does
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Data needs, uncertainty and availab
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estimates, escapement enumeration,
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English: That’s certainly the cas
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Christensen: We keep hearing about
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wild salmonids, but it is highly le
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Kent: (…?) parasite mortality in
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A detailed hazard evaluation, which
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Urbanization upstream of Hope since
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coast. That winter featured wetter
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change was in 1989, but there was n
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Research program presentations (con
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qualitative), abundance of potentia
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Christensen: Bristol Bay stocks are
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Comments are welcomed on the indica
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Key metrics: The most important met
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degrees C per decade, but that tren
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subject less fit to deal with major
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Peterman: Before you conclude from
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McKinnell: There are no marine surv
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List of ParticipantsDave Marmorek,
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CohenCommissionProjectChange 1 (enr
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Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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