Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Peterman: We’re lacking the big picture because we’re not thinking big enough. The proposal fora fully-integrated Strait of Georgia study is not thinking big enough - everyone is studyingsmall pieces.McKinnell: I think there is an opportunity. The coastal salmon ecology group is meetingannually and has had some success with regard to ocean survival of salmon in the early lifestages. We are trying to find an umbrella to share observations from California to Alaska.Take a network of people who are working under the radar and formalize it as anorganization, an international cooperative that has the same research objectives.Levy: With this Commission we have a unique opportunity to advance some of these concepts sothere is no problem thinking big. The government of Canada will be listening.McKinnell: Even something like the old Fisheries Research Board model. Look at what is failingand where advances could be made in a way that is cost effective and that provides newinsights.Peterman: Not just for Fraser sockeye: we need something to compare Fraser sockeye with forthe whole life history, with well-focused questions.Kent: I’m involved in three Oregon studies that were part of a bigger program. It was veryrewarding because the work was so well integrated with toxicology and fishery biology.Christensen: Is this what DFO has in the 5-year plan? It’s worth looking at the ecosystemresearch initiative and how effective it has been. They are chopping the funding into suchsmall pieces.Marmorek: There is a report that deals with DFO management and science so that seems like thelogical place to address it.Johannes: It would be useful to have a group of authors write a white paper on this.Levy: ESSA’s cumulative effects paper would be a good place to do it.ACTION: Email any further comments on conceptual models to ESSA (Darcy)Closing commentsLevy thanked everyone for an enlightening discussion, noting the brain power in the room hadbeen effectively harnessed in the agenda, that he was very pleased with the progress heard andthat he looked forward to continuing to work with the researchers.Q/A: The report deadline is fixed, and further changes after the deadline would not beencouraged.Levy closed by thanking ESSA for a great job organizing and facilitating the workshop.Adjourned: 4:4571
List of ParticipantsDave Marmorek, ESSA (Facilitator)Darcy Pickard, ESSAAlex Hall, ESSAMarc Porter, ESSAKatherine Wieckowski, ESSALiz Martell, ESSADave Levy, Cohen CommissionPatricia Woodruff, Cohen CommissionCarla Shore, Cohen CommissionDon MacDonald, MESLMichael Kent, Oregon State UniversityMark Johannes, Golder AssociatesKees Groot, DFO retiredMarc Labelle, L4 BiotechAl Martin, MoE retiredKen Ashley, BCITEdwin Blewett, CounterpointMike Staley, CounterpointBert Ionson, CounterpointBrigitte Dorner, SFU/Driftwood DesignsAndrew Trites, UBCVilly Christensen, UBCRandall Peterman, SFUSean Cox, SFUMarvin Rosenau, BCITKarl English, LGLSkip McKinnell, PICESEduardo Martins, UBCScott Hinch, UBCRick Routledge, SFUJohn Reynolds, SFUDawn Steele (note-taker)Summary of action itemsLevy to advise whether reviewer comments and responses should be reported individually oras summary reviews and summary responses.Scientific contractors requested to keep Excel and Access files handy to facilitate translationof all figures in their reports (tables should be okay).Email any further comments on conceptual models to ESSA (Darcy)72
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
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The objective of our approach is to
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investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
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Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
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multiple stresses simultaneously. T
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Change point analysis of productivi
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Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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ecruits for this analysis as we wan
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exclude covariates with limited yea
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Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
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Status only data setsIn many cases
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The A-series of model sets based on
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with this report given the vast sco
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Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
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categories of stressors. We cannot
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o In some cases it may be the timin
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Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
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alance” over time and so this it
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Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
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Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
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A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
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Life stage Stressor category Variab
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The results show strong support for
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ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
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Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
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A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
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Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
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Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
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A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
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suggest any underlying mechanism, b
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Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
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Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
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Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
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Metric Connected to Biologically-su
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Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
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Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
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Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
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Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
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and scope for improvement, particul
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Workshop participants pointed out t
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o Can you find the same shared tren
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generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Page 312 and 313: MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
Page 314 and 315: Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
Page 316 and 317: Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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Page 320 and 321: To address potential skepticism ove
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Page 324 and 325: considered a good surrogate of temp
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Page 334 and 335: preliminary assessment of potential
Page 336 and 337: MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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Page 344 and 345: Seasonal population distribution pa
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Page 358 and 359: Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
Page 362 and 363: Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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