Fraser River sockeye salmon: data synthesis and cumulative impacts

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Life stage Stressor category Variable Description Database Variable Name Dates 25Growth in North Pacific Predator/Alternative Prey Alternative prey quantile based aggregate estimateof 8 species/locations.PRQ_110_NULL_GROW_DOM 1950-Return to Fraser Competition with pinks Pink salmon abundance (NE Pacific) PNK_x50_NPOx_MGRS_DOM 1952-Return to Fraser Competition with pinks Pink salmon abundance (Russia) PNK_x58_NPOx_MGRS_DOM 1952-Return to Fraser Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Sea surface salinity. SoG, May-Sept average. SSS_A59_SoGx_MGRS_DOM 1950-Return to Fraser Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Sea surface temperature. SoG, Sept average. SST_M09_SoGx_MGRS_DOM 1950-Return to Fraser Marine conditions Sea surface salinity. QCS, May-Sept average. SSS_A59_QCSx_MGRS_DOM 1970-Return to Fraser Predator/Alternative Prey California sea lion estimate PNE_x25_NULL_MGRS_DOM 1971-Return to Fraser Predator/Alternative Prey Harbour seal estimate PNE_x39_NULL_MGRS_DOM 1913-Return to Fraser Predator/Alternative Prey Stellar sea lion PNE_x61_NULL_MGRS_DOM 1913-Return to Fraser Predator/Alternative Prey Alternative prey quantile based aggregate estimateof 8 species/locations.PRQ_110_NULL_MGRS_DOM 1950-Smolt outmigration Contaminants Qualitative water quality index. Stock specific. WQQ_x53_FWMx_SMLT_DOM 1948-Smolt outmigration Freshwater Spring air temperature CU specific SPT_x82_FWRx_SMLT_DOM 1948-Smolt outmigration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Discharge, SoG, April total DIS_T04_SoGx_SMLT_DOM 1969-Smolt outmigration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Discharge SoG, May total DIS_T05_SoGx_SMLT_DOM 1969-Smolt outmigration Habitat conditions in Lower Fraser & SoG Lower Fraser total dredge volume DRG_x45_LFRx_SMLT_DOM 1970-Smolt outmigration Predator/Alternative Prey Double Crested Cormorant and CommonMerganser: Quantile based aggregate estimateCBQ_107_NULL_SMLT_DOM 1958-Upstream migration Climate change Lower Fraser water temperature for returningadults.WTT_x82_FWMx_MGRS_DOM 1951-Upstream migration Contaminants Qualitative water quality index. Stock specific. WQQ_x66_FWMx_MGRS_DOM 1948-Upstream migration Freshwater Summer air temperature. CU specific. SUT_x26_FWMx_MGRS_DOM 1948-Upstream migration Predator/Alternative Prey Bald Eagle abundance. CBQ_x91_NULL_MGRS_DOM 1957-236
A4.3.2Model: A4cBrood years: 1969-2001Analyses by life stageA model set was tested with the available data for brood years 1969-2001. The list of potentialvariables provided by the Cohen Contractors is not exhaustive (i.e., other important variablesmay exist, or data may not have been available). However, for this time period there are at least afew variables for all but two life stages: incubation-rearing and spawning. There are a total of 33potential stressor variables. While there are 611 records in this time period, there are only 463observations of ln(R/S) with complete data. Two stocks: Harrison and Cultus, have no data forone stressor variable (Water Quality during outmigration) in this time period and are notincluded in this analysis. Each stressor was linked to a particular life stage as described inAppendix A3-4 Data Preparation). In some cases the same data may be linked to several lifestages (e.g., predators could potentially impact sockeye during their inshore migration or duringtheir return migration to spawn). Table A4.3-3 describes the ten different models in this modelset, Table A4.3-4 shows the relative fit of each model, and Table A4.3-5 provides the estimatesfor each parameter and model.Table A4.3-3. Model descriptions for model set A4c (comparison among life stages for brood years 1969-2001).ModelNameModel descriptionNumber ofstressorsTotal number ofparametersM1 Global model: contains variables associated 31 50with all life stages.M2 Life stage 1: Incubation-rearing. 0 19M3 Life stage 2: Smolt Outmigration 6 25M4 Life stage 3: Inshore Migration and 13 32Migration to Rearing AreasM5 Life stage 4a: Growth in North Pacific 2 21M6 Life stage 4b: Return to Fraser 8 26M7 Life stage 5a: Return to spawn (upstream 4 23migration) 26M8 Life stage 5b: Spawning 0 19M9 All freshwater life stages: 1, 2, 5a, and 5b 7 26M10 All marine life stages: 3, 4a, and 4b 23 4126 Note: the response variable used in the analysis, ln(R/S) already incorporates en-route mortality and so thishypothesis refers to any delayed effect on productivity (e.g., spawners may not produce as many offspring if they arestressed) resulting from the upstream migration.237
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April 2011technical report 6Fraser
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Stage 2: Smolt OutmigrationWe analy
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of multiple stressors and factors,
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4.3.5 Other evidence ..............
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List of TablesTable 4.2-1. Evaluati
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List of FiguresFigure 2.3-1. Cumula
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these integrative frameworks, conve
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2.0 Cumulative Impacts or Effects2.
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assumed that there is no potential
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classes of stressors. However, if s
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affected by many stressors over its
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examples illustrate this problem --
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possibly even negligible component
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Figure 3.3-1. The conceptual model
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3.3.3 Life history perspective/appr
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additional analyses to gain further
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Figure 3.3-3. Flow diagram used to
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This project is unusual in its scop
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4.0 Results, Synthesis and Discussi
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Peterman and Dorner (2011) have thr
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Figure 4.1-3. Estimates of long ter
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Figure 4.1-5. A) Total run size of
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Figure 4.1-6. Aggregate returns to
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o were generally worse during the l
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Freshwater predators on juvenile so
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copper, iron, mercury and silver).
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Several analyses by MacDonald et al
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abundances (Sproat, Klukshu, Chilka
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feel reasonably confident in this c
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Nelitz et al. (2011; Table 18) foun
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in the Lower Fraser than other Fras
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stressors. Thus our conclusions hav
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There are many marine predators tha
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assumption that exposure occurs whe
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observations that are then averaged
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Johannes et al. (2011) demonstrate
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“likely” contributor to the ove
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Table 4.4-2. Model specifications f
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Region Variable M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M
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3. survival rates within key portio
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2011). The thermal limit hypothesis
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Historically, the majority of retur
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salinity. There is much evidence th
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declines (discussed in section 4.2
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There is indisputable evidence of t
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Figure 4.6-2. Number of years that
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correlation was statistically signi
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4.6.7 Key things we need to know be
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al (2010). The combined effect of a
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more likely to suffer en-route and
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Table 4.7-2. Variables included in
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However, an important limitation is
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Alternative PreyVariablesModelsM1 M
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will likely have a high correlation
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5.0 Conclusion5.1 Important Contrib
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Stage 5: Migration back to SpawnWhi
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More specifically, the extended res
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The twelve highest priority recomme
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Life stagefor FraserRiversockeyesal
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6.0 ReferencesAinsworth, L.M., Rout
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Johannes, M.R.S., R. Hoogendoorn, R
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Schaller et al. 2007. Comparative S
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utilized to clarify the full range
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Appendix 2. Reviewer Evaluations an
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the conclusions of the Expert Panel
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Response: Figure numbers have been
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Response: This section has been com
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ased on time or other stocks) to
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them in terms of how changes in spa
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efer to some variable being include
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... (Table xx)". Structures of thes
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Report Title: Fraser River sockeye
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show stronger correlations. Hence,
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Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye popul
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a single database for other researc
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Response: We have removed the itali
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evidence unique to each life stage.
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Report Title: Data Synthesis and Cu
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Response: We have further emphasize
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5. I would also encourage the autho
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events occur, it should be possible
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I don’t have anything to add beyo
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constitutes an exposure to human ac
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3.3.1 has been revised to say “As
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most likely contributors to the rec
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A3.2.1 Integrative quantitative met
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Table A3.3-1. A summary of data set
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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ProjectNumber Project Name Variable
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A3.4 Data PreparationContractor dat
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Table A3.4-2. An example entry in t
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Table A3.4-5. Brood year adjustment
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Table A3.4-7. Example output from t
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Table A3.4-9. The table of contents
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ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 202 and 203: ProjectNumberProject Variable Subse
Page 212 and 213: The objective of our approach is to
Page 214 and 215: investigated ecosystems” (Burkhar
Page 216 and 217: Figure A3.5-1. Flow diagram used to
Page 218 and 219: multiple stresses simultaneously. T
Page 220 and 221: Change point analysis of productivi
Page 222 and 223: Figure A3.5-1. This is an example o
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Page 226 and 227: exclude covariates with limited yea
Page 228 and 229: Figure A3.5-3. Average chlorophyll
Page 230 and 231: Status only data setsIn many cases
Page 232 and 233: The A-series of model sets based on
Page 234 and 235: with this report given the vast sco
Page 236 and 237: Table A3.5-5. Example of the model
Page 238 and 239: categories of stressors. We cannot
Page 240 and 241: o In some cases it may be the timin
Page 242 and 243: Appendix 4. Quantitative ResultsA4.
Page 244 and 245: alance” over time and so this it
Page 246 and 247: Figure A4.2-3. Stock composition fo
Page 248 and 249: Figure A4.2-5. Stock composition fo
Page 250 and 251: A4.3 Multiple Regression ResultsA4.
Page 254 and 255: The results show strong support for
Page 256 and 257: ModelSet_A4c_VarName M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Page 258 and 259: Table A4.3-7. Estimates for all fix
Page 260 and 261: A4.3.3Analyses by stressor category
Page 262 and 263: Table A4.3-10. Estimates for all fi
Page 264 and 265: Model: B4bBrood years: 1969-2001We
Page 268 and 269: A4.3.4Analysis by regionModel: C4a1
Page 272 and 273: suggest any underlying mechanism, b
Page 274 and 275: Model: C1a1996-2004For 1996-2004, i
Page 278 and 279: Table A4.3-23. SoG C1a candidate mo
Page 281 and 282: Appendix 5. Data Template User Guid
Page 283 and 284: Metric Connected to Biologically-su
Page 285 and 286: Initial Conceptual Model (Worksheet
Page 287 and 288: Commentsopen again. It is acceptabl
Page 289 and 290: Appendix 6. Workshop Report 1 (Nov.
Page 291 and 292: Table of ContentsTable of Contents
Page 293 and 294: PresentationsProductivity Dynamics
Page 295 and 296: and scope for improvement, particul
Page 297 and 298: Workshop participants pointed out t
Page 299 and 300: o Can you find the same shared tren
Page 301 and 302: generally better for Alaska sockeye
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Relative Likelihood of Alternative
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There was widespread agreement with
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Appendix A: List of Projects and In
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Peer Reviewers: Provide constructiv
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MacDonald Environmental Sciences Lt
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Appendix C: Workshop MinutesContent
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Levy urged researchers to bear in m
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within-population, within-brood-yea
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To address potential skepticism ove
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instead of migrating directly out i
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considered a good surrogate of temp
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Bristol Bay review: There are subst
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Method: The approach included formu
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Staley: Our project needs to compar
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Levy: It will go ahead in January.
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preliminary assessment of potential
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MacDonald: We’re waiting for all
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including Shuswap and North Thompso
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and biological variables. The combi
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temperatures. Notably, it doesn’t
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Seasonal population distribution pa
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Information gaps: The most importan
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Fraser sockeye salmon habitat analy
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survey data, but they were looking
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was also shown that tagged fish ret
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English: There was extensive holdin
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periods showed that 4 to 6 stocks (
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Q/A: Researchers should also feel f
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Peterman: We’re lacking the big p
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Appendix D: Table of likelihood/ hy
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