victorian electric vehicle trial mid-term report - Department of Transport

The economic analysis hasexamined the likely costsand benefits to the Stateunder a range of scenariosup to 2040. It has identifiedkey influences on theoutcomes, along with timingfor various milestones in themarket development.The environmental impactsassessment has included acomprehensive investigation ofthe lifecycle impacts of electricvehicle production, operation anddisposal in Victoria. It has sought anunderstanding of the main issuesinfluencing environmental impacts,and determined pathways to securethe best environmental outcomes.The trial has been used as a test-casefor management of the environmentalimpacts, and guidance has beendeveloped for Victorian EV operators.An understanding of the social impactsfrom EV uptake has been soughtin terms of employment benefitsalong with education and trainingneeds. Opportunities for the Victorianeconomy in terms of research, designand development have been collated.Measures to protect and enhancecommunity safety have been identifiedand are being progressed through acollaborative process.6.1 ECONOMIC IMPACTS6.1.1 How have the economicimpacts been assessed?The case for or against electric vehiclesin Victoria will depend to a large extentupon the economic implications forthe State. In recognition of this, theformer Department of Transportcommissioned consultants AECOMin mid-2010 to undertake economicmodelling of future EV uptake inVictoria (AECOM 2011).The economic model directly calculateslikely take-up rates of electric vehiclesusing known data and industry inputabout the relative importance ofdifferent criteria in shaping consumerpurchasing decisions. The benefits ofthis approach are two-fold:(i) It avoids use of assumptions abouttake-up of vehicles based upon pastbehaviour – this is a new market forwhich little information of this type isavailable; and(ii) By directly estimating take-up, itis possible to consider the impactof various potential sensitivitiesaround prices (such as, electricityprices, fuel prices, vehicle prices)and how these affect take-up.The analysis considers three scenariosagainst the base case, reflectingavailability of electric vehicles andcharging infrastructure. The basecase assumes that only conventionalvehicles are available, including ICEVsand HEVs. The three comparisonscenarios investigate the levels ofPHEV and BEV take-up under marketconditions that vary as follows:• Scenario 1 – assumes that there ishousehold charging available only• Scenario 2 – assumes there isenhanced household chargingrelative to Scenario 1, and publiccharging available in the Victorianmetropolitan region• Scenario 3 – same as forScenario 2 with the addition ofelectric vehicle service stationsthat offer battery-swap or fastchargecapability.The analysis:• Looks at small, medium andlarge passenger vehicles, taxisand light-commercial vehiclesbeing used in the Victorianmetropolitan region (that is,Melbourne plus regional centres).Passenger vehicle use was furthersegmented according to how manykilometres vehicles travel eachyear. This approach recognisesthe differences in capital costs,operating costs and payback ratesfor each technology choice relativeto a conventional vehicle• Includes consideration of vehicleprices, fuel and electricity prices(including carbon price impacts)along with other vehicle operatingcosts, vehicle supply constraints,discount rates, emissions impacts,and consumer acceptance criteria• Provides an estimate of the neteconomic impacts over a 30-yearperiod from 2010 to 2040.CREATING A MARKET 99