Friday, April 21 – 3:45 pm – 5:30 pm1-103 ROUNDTABLE: PUBLISHING INPOLITICAL SCIENCERoomChairPanelistTBA, Fri 3:45 pmLee Sigelman, American <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> ReviewJohn G. Geer, Journal of PoliticsJim Johnson, Perspectives on PoliticsAndrew Polsky, PolityMarianne C. Stewart, American Journal of <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong>Overview: Editors of the Discipline's major, general interestjournals discuss editorial policies and practices, as well asstrategies for successful submission.2-8 TO VOTE OR NOT -- INSTITUTIONS,MOBILIZATION AND EDUCATIONRoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Fri 3:45 pmChristopher H. Achen, Princeton UniversityComparing Multi-level Voter Participating Using EcologicalDataSoren R. Thomsen, Aarhus University, DenmarkOverview: The paper presents a comparative study of multilevelvoter participation in several industrialized countries usingecological data on voter returns and census statistics.A Comparative Analysis of Variation in Turnout byEducationJonathan Nagler, New York UniversityMelanie Goodrich, New York UniversityOverview: We use the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems(CSES) to compare how educational attainment impacts thelikelihood that an eligible individual will cast a ballot in anelection across nations.Differential Turnout in Multi-level Electoral Contests--TheIrish CaseRichard Sinnott, University College, DublinOverview: This paper outlines a facilitation-mobilizationframework for the study of turnout and assesses its utility in theIrish case using data from marked electoral registers, pseudopanel data, and data from a large cross-section survey(N=24,556).Exploring the Turnout Gap in the UK: Evidence FromPrecinct-Level DataMichael A. Thrasher, University of PlymouthColin S. Rallings, University of PlymouthScott Orford, University of CardiffGalina Borisyuk, University of PlymouthOverview: The turnout gap for UK general, European and localelections is the largest of any industrialized country. Precinctlevelsocial, political and spatial characteristics are used toexplore varying levels of voter participation.Differential Turnout in Multi-level Electoral Contests--TheAmerican CaseChristopher H. Achen, Princeton UniversityMichael J. Hanmer, Georgetown UniversityOverview: This paper studies American midterm andpresidential turnout. The standard quadratic-in-agespecifications are shown to have poor forecasting properties.Successful theory-based methodological techniques areproposed in their place.Jeffrey A. Karp, Texas Tech University2-10 WELFARE, REPRESENTATION ANDTURNOUTRoomChairPaperTBA, Fri 3:45 pmStephanie J. Rickard, Pennsylvania State UniversityIncome Skew and Loss, Transfers and Insurance, andVoting: Theory and Empirical ModelRobert J. Franzese, University of Michigan, Ann ArborOverview: Income skew and risk of loss imply differentrelations of median demand to redistribution and insurance.Both may also affect participation, which affects those policies.The resulting system is explored formal-theoretically andestimated empirically.PaperPaperPaperDisc.Median Voters, Welfare, and the Declining Significance ofLeft PartiesSteve B. Lem, Binghamton UniversityOverview: I present a model linking the median voter topartisanship and welfare policies in an attempt to address thedebate over the relevance of left and right parties in the era ofretrenchment.Tentative: Welfare Spending and DemocracyEunju Kang, Claremont Graduate UniversityOverview: I will update this brief overview later when I havemore specific empirical results.Welfare to Vote: The Effect of Government Spending onTurnoutSara B. Hobolt, University of OxfordRobert Klemmensen, University of Southern DenmarkOverview: This paper analyzes the effect of welfare spending onvoter turnout. Employing multi-level analyses of CSES surveydata from 60 elections, we examine how welfare spendingaffects individual-level patterns of electoral participation.Stephanie J. Rickard, Pennsylvania State University3-12 TOWARDS INCLUSIVE CITIZENSHIP INTHE MIDDLE EASTRoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Fri 3:45 pmMohamed A. Berween, Texas A&M International UniversityThe <strong>Political</strong> Economy of Women's Support forFundamentalist IslamLisa Blaydes, University of California, Los AngelesDrew Linzer, University of California, Los AngelesOverview: Why do women in Muslim countries support Islamicpolitical movements that promote gender-based inequalities?Cross-national survey analysis reveals economic motivations forthe political preferences of Muslim women, an understudiedgroup.<strong>Political</strong> Legitimacy in a Middle East Monarchical Context:A Comparative Study of Morocco and JordanMohamed Daadaoui, University of OklahomaOverview: The paper suggests a larger framework for politicallegitimacy within the religious/symbolic realm. Morocco andJordan have relied on their religious and tribal capital to build asymbolic space for political legitimacy.The Importance of Divergent Strategies in Turkish LaborHistory, 1960-1980Brian Mello, University of WashingtonOverview: Why did the two union confederations thatdominated Turkish state-labor relations in the 1960s and 1970spursued divergent political strategies. The importance of thesedifferences for Turkish politics and recent events in the US isconsidered.State and Activation of the Religious Cleavage in Turkeyand IndonesiaYusuf Sarfati, The Ohio State UniversityAmbordi Kuskidridho, The Ohio State UniversityOverview: We examine how the religious cleavage has beenactivated in post-1980 Turkey and post-1990 Indonesia bytracing the cultural, educational, and legal policy changesimplemented by secular state elites in Turkey (1983-1991) andin Indonesia (1990-1997).Battles Over Belonging: Citizenship in EgyptPamela Stumpo, University of WashingtonOverview: Using Egypt as my main case, my paper focuses onthe battles that have raged over whether children of mixedmarriages and dual nationals should gain full citizenship rights.Amaney A. Jamal, Princeton University3-20 MICRO-FOUNDATIONS OF CIVIL WARSRoomChairPaperTBA, Fri 3:45 pmRachel M. Gisselquist, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyPerpetrators of Genocide: Theory and Evidence fromRwandaScott Straus, University of Wisconsin, MadisonOverview: The paper examines participation in genocide andspecifically participation in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. The172
PaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.principal evidence for the paper comes from an original surveyof more than 200 Rwandan perpetrators.The Determinants of Insurgent Appeals in Civil WarJeremy M. Weinstein, Stanford UniversityMacartan Humphreys, Columbia UniversityOverview: Drawing on a dataset of randomly sampled excombatantsand civilians from Sierra Leone, this paper testshypotheses from the literature on collective action and exploresthe consequences of recruitment strategies for retention andeffectiveness.Civil-Military Relations and Vulnerability to Civil WarNaunihal Singh, University of Notre DameOverview: This paper develops and tests a theory linking thehistory of civil-military relations in a country to the likelihoodand duration of a civil war in that country.Governance Performance of Rebel Groups after TheirMilitary VictoryKazuhiro Obayashi, George Washington UniversityOverview: I conduct a quantitative analysis to test a hypothesisthat unitary form (U-form) rebel groups govern a country moreeffectively than multidivisional form (M-form) rebel groupsafter their military victory in civil war.Learning from Adversity: Ethnic Ties and EthnicDominationRavi Bhavnani, Michigan State UniversityOverview: This paper specifies a novel framework to explorehow rival ethnic groups in one country learn from threats toethnic kin in a neighboring country and from threats made bynominal rivals at home.Scott E. Page, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor4-12 LA BUSQUEDA DEMOCRATICA:ASSESSING PROGRESS IN THE AMERICASRoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Fri 3:45 pmTBAExternal Actors and Democratic Transitions: The Case ofGuyanaDavid H. Carwell, Eastern Illinois UniversityOverview: What strategies can facilitate democratic transitionswhen an external actor is in a position to exert a "veto" overpolitical decisions made by internal political actors?Alignment, Dealignment, Volatility and AuthoritarianLegacy in South AmericaSimone R. Bohn, University of ChicagoOverview: Some aspects of the authoritarian regimes of the1960s and 1970s survived their formal demise and still play animportant role in contemporary party politics in Argentina,Brazil, Chile and Uruguay. This paper analyzes the keyelements of this heritage.A Theory of Leadership Dynamics in AuthoritarianRegimesMilan Svolik, University of Illinois, Urbana-ChampaignOverview: We study the determinants of tenure of leaders inauthoritarian regimes.The New Role of Subnational Governments in the FederalPolicy Process: The Case of Democratic MexicoLaura Flamand, El Colegio de la Frontera NorteOverview: We explore the institutional channels subnationalgovernments have used to further their interests nationally andinfluence federal policies, thus, revealing the reasons underlyingwhy some governments are more active in this respect thanothers.Selective Oversight: Controlling the Bureaucracy in NewDemocraciesAlejandra Rios-Cazares, University of California, San DiegoOverview: Sustainable democracies need legislators able toenforce bureaucratic accountability. I propose a model ofstrategic interaction between legislators and bureaucrats thatuses resource constraints and policy preferences. I test datafrom Mexico.Amy Lauren Lovecraft, University of Alaska, Fairbanks4-103 ROUNDTABLE: THE ELUSIVE BALLOTBOX: "DEMOCRATIC FILTERS", 1776-2004- A ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONRoomChairPanelistTBA, Fri 3:45 pmCarolina Curvale, New York UniversityTamar Asadurian, New York UniversitySunny Kaniyathu, New York UniversityAnjali Thomas, New York UniversityOverview: Democracies developed legal ways of controlling theoutcome of elections other than through the extent of thefranchise. We found creative legal exclusions entrenched in theregulation of suffrage for all countries of the world (1776-2004).5-10 IMMIGRANT INTEGRATION IN EUROPERoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Fri 3:45 pmGary Freeman, University of Texas, AustinSocialization Effects and Immigrants' <strong>Political</strong> Integrationin GermanyPeter Doerschler, Loras CollegeOverview: This paper examines the role of socialization effectson the political integration of immigrants in Germany.Social Ties and Attitudes Toward Immigration in Franceand BritainJennifer Fitzgerald, University of Colorado, BoulderOverview: Exploring views on immigration in Britain andFrance, I argue that there is an explicitly social aspect tocitizens' attitudes. I find that the shape and size of individuals'social networks influence their views on immigration.Religion, Contention, and the State: A Comparative Look atIslamic Mobilization in Western EuropeKathryn Lawall, University of Notre DameOverview: Under what conditions do Islamic movements inWestern Europe emerge? A neglected research topic within thesocial movement literature is: under what conditions can weexpect a given type of movement to emerge?Muslim Minorities in France: Integration, Islam, andSecularismEren Tatari, Indiana University, BloomingtonOverview: This paper analyzes the four theories to explain stateaccommodation of Muslim minorities in Europe, and proposes afifth dimension to account for the Islamic variable.Claus Hofhansel, Rhode Island College5-21 THE MAKING OF EUROPE'SCONSTITUTIONRoomChairPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Fri 3:45 pmMartyn de Bruyn, St. John Fisher CollegeEurope's Constitutional Treaty in Its <strong>Political</strong> ContextLeone Niglia, University of AberdeenOverview: This paper re-reads the vicissitudes of the making ofEurope's Constitutional Treaty from the vantage point of themulti-regional political tradition that characterizes the makingof constitutions in Europe.Constitutional Bargaining in the European Union:Examining Power and Explaining Outcomes at Europe’sIntergovernmental <strong>Conference</strong>sJonathan B. Slapin, University of California, Los AngelesOverview: This paper uses data from the EU’s Treaty ofAmsterdam to test competing theories of constitutionalbargaining. Sources of power related to spatial models betterexplain outcomes compared with sources of power related tointergovernmental models.Self-Identity in Elite and Populist Perspectives on aEuropean ConstitutionJosephine E. Squires, Fort Hays State UniversityOverview: Limitations of Functionalist Theories of Integration.Martyn de Bruyn, St. John Fisher College173
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