PaperDisc.It's Not the Economy Stupid! EU Citizens' AttitudesTowards TurkeyBasak Yavcan, University of PittsburghOverview: The purpose of this paper is to reveal whereEuropean Union citizens' attitudes towards Turkey'smembership come from. A new theory incorporating the effectsof identity is generated and tested against utilitarian approachesof preference formation.Francesca Vassallo, University of Southern Maine7-10 THE OUTCOMES AND EFFECTS OFSUBNATIONAL ELECTIONS IN LATINAMERICARoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 3:45 pmChristopher Diaz, Morehead State UniversityHow Mexico's Municipal Usos y Costumbres Regimes AffectFederal ElectionsAllyson L. Benton, CIDEOverview: This paper investigates how systems of localgovernance in Mexico affect electoral behavior in state andfederal contests.Determinants of Voting Behavior in Mexico’s Sub-NationalPoliticsRicardo H. Cavazos-Cepeda, University of California,BerkeleyOverview: Mexico’s democratization process evolved rapidly.The objective of this paper is to investigate the existence ofpunishment voting based on state level politics in Mexico. etaro,The Evolution of Partisan Competition in the MexicanStates Between 1970 and 2005: Origins and ConsequencesMark P. Jones, Rice UniversityPaloma Bauer de la Isla, Michigan State UniversityOverview: We examine the evolution of partisan competition atthe state level in Mexico since 1970. To do so we employmodified versions of the Ranney and Holbrook-Van Dunkindices that have been used to examine partisan competition inthe U.S.Clashing Incentives: the Provincialization of ElectoralPolitics in ArgentinaJulieta Suarez-Cao, Northwestern UniversityOverview: Despite a constitutional reform that encourages thenationalization of politics, Argentine electoral politics areincreasingly tied to the local arenas. The paper argues that thisshould be understood as an unintended by-product of economicreforms.Christopher Diaz, Morehead State UniversityTulia G. Falleti, University of Pennsylvania8-12 TOPICS IN ASIAN POLITICAL ECONOMYRoomChairPaperPaperPaperTBA, Sat 3:45 pmKam C. Wong, University of Wisconsin, OshkoshCCP’s Cooptation Strategy and the Chinese Private SectorJing Tong, Indiana University, BloomingtonOverview: The paper examines the relation between the Chineseprivate sector and the government by looking into the variationof CCP’s cooptation strategy and how the size of privateenterprises significantly influences their relationship with thegovernment.Politics of Financial and Corporate Restructuring in SouthKoreaHeon Joo Jung, University of PennsylvaniaOverview: This research examines the role of financialregulatory reform in corporate restructuring in South Koreasince the 1997 financial crisis.The <strong>Political</strong> and Social Role of Business Groups (Business<strong>Association</strong>s) in the Democratization of ChinaSiu Fung Nerisa Chan, University of Newcastle upon TyneOverview: Despite the rapid economic growth of China inrecent decades, there have been no significant political change.PaperPaperDisc.<strong>Political</strong> Economy of Banking Reforms in Indonesia, Korea,and ThailandSawa Omori, University of TokyoOverview: This paper examines what makes the pace and thedegree of banking reforms vary in Indonesia, Korea, andThailand. Not only the IMF's influence but also the number ofveto players matter in explaining banking reforms in these threecountries.Global Finance, Neoliberal Economic Reform, and theState: The Case of JapanTakaaki Suzuki, Ohio UniversityOverview: This paper demonstrates how and why the rise ofglobal finance in Japan since the early 1990s has expanded,rather than eroded, the role of the state in the issue area of fiscaland financial policy.Kam C. Wong, University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh9-2 POLITICAL PARTICIPATION AND SUB-NATIONAL LOYALTIES IN AFRICARoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 3:45 pmAgber Dimah, Chicago State UniversityThe 'Re-traditionalization' of Ethnicity in Post-ColonialAfricaJean G. Tompihe, University of California, Los AngelesOverview: This study asks why do ethnicities reinforce andbecome politically salient. It argues that the plausibleexplanation for re-traditionalization of ethnicities results fromthe lethal combination of institutional legacies of inequity, andthe intentionRegime Type and <strong>Political</strong> Competition in AfricaAthanassios Roussias, Yale UniversityCharalampos Mylonas, Yale UniversityOverview: We extend previous analyses of party politics in Sub-Saharan Africa and show that recent findings have beenincorrect. We show that the interaction of standard variablespredicts the number of parties only for democratically heldelections.Electoral Systems and Ethnicity in Africans' <strong>Political</strong>ParticipationWonbin Cho, Michigan State UniversityOverview: Using Afrobarometer survey data set withinformation on political institutions from 18 Sub-SaharanAfrican countries, I want to explore variance in politicalparticipation across ethnic groups.The New Challenge of Classifying Africa's Post-Authoritarian RegimesFodei J. Batty, Western Michigan UniversityOverview: The paper draws attention to problematic regimes inSub-Saharan Africa. Previous classification criteria fail tocapture the real nature these regimes, which have flourishedsince Western donors set democracy as a precondition forreceiving aid.Carl LeVan, University of California, San Diego11-11 REALISM'S ANCIENT ROOTS ANDMODERN RELEVANCERoomChairPaperPaperTBA, Sat 3:45 pmZaryab Iqbal, University of South CarolinaThe Sophists, Thucydides, and Realism in InternationalPoliticsThomas J. Johnson, University of Akron Wayne CollegeOverview: This is a reevaluation of the place that Thucydidesholds in the realist canon in international politics, based on areading of how the ideas of the sophists of Athens influencedhis "History", and thus all subsequent realist scholarship.Could War Become Obsolete? An Examination of theClassical Understanding of WarAngela D. Dworin, University of ChicagoOverview: This paper will examine the writings of Thucydides,Plato, and Aristotle on the subject of war and its causes, andthen ask whether their insights will illuminate the contemporaryquestion of whether it is possible for war to become obsolete.236
PaperPaperPaperDisc.Where Has the Old Debate Gone? Realism, Institutionalismand IR TheoryRafael Grasa, Autonomous University of BarcelonaOriol Costa, Autonomous University of BarcelonaOverview: This paper sustains that the neorealismneoinstitutionalismdebate is not the main reference in IRtheoretical arguments any more, it intends to explain why, and ittries to suggest which may be the next querelle to pay attentionto.NATO’s Transformation and its Implications for IR TheoryIvan D. Ivanov, University of CincinnatiRichard J. Harknett, University of CincinnatiOverview: This paper examines the relationship between thesecurity communities and John Mearsheimer’s offensive realistcontribution toward understanding unipolarity through a studyof NATO.Infering Intention from the Choice of Sides: The Decision toBalanceRobert F. Trager, Oxford UniversityOverview: Third parties involve themselves in conflicts either togain from conquest or to exert greater influence on the post-warsettlement. States bandwagon rather than balance, except whenthe behavior of the more powerful side indicates hostileintention.Ann Wyman, Missouri Southern State University12-12 POLITICAL RISK AND FINANCIALMARKETSRoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 3:45 pmAndrew Appleton, Washington State UniversityPork Bellies and War Futures: Making the Case for MarketSignalsJason Brozek, University of Wisconsin, MadisonOverview: If war depresses trade, financial markets willanticipate and signal this relationship. In this paper, I use highfrequencymarket data and daily events data to examine theshort-term relationship between interstate conflict and marketactivity.Democracy and Financial Markets - When Voters andInvestors DisagreeDaniella Campello, University of California, Los AngelesOverview: This paper studies 35 countries along 25 years inorder to investigate the reaction of financial markets to nationalelections and whether this reaction is associated to thepartisanship of the likely winner of the contest.Partisan Politics, Credibility, and Government BondMarketsHye Jee Cho, University of California, Los AngelesOverview: Leftist governments may send negative messages toinvestors because of their partisan policies and party label.Investors may be willing to invest in left governments overcenter/right governments if leftist governments provide policycertainty.Are There Institutional Determinants of FDI?Rumel S. Mahmood, Washington University, St. LouisDan O'Neill, Washington University, St. LouisLong Chen, Washington University, St. LouisOverview: The literature has found that democracies attractmore FDI. We look at the more nuanced aspects of a democracyinvolved in attracting or discouraging FDI flows. We use panelcorrected standard errors. Some of our findings are counterintuitive.Jude C. Hays, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign13-12 DOMESTIC POLITICAL APPROACHES TOINTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ISSUESRoomChairPaperTBA, Sat 3:45 pmGlenn P. Hastedt, James Madison UniversityObserving Norms: Explaining Internationally MonitoredElectionsSusan D. Hyde, University of California, San DiegoOverview: Why do incumbent leaders invite internationalobservers and then commit blatant electoral fraud? I explainPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.why election observation spread, and present empirical evidenceto support my argument from an original dataset of electionsfrom 1960-2004.How a President Decides to Use Unilateral Force: APoliheuristic ExplanationBradley F. Podliska, Texas A&M UniversityOverview: Using poliheuristic theory, this paper examines thesequence of decisions a president faces in a crisis, explaininghow a president first decides to use force, and then how hemakes a second decision to use unilateral or multilateral force.Executive Agreement Stasis: Implications in DeterminingPresident's EvasionRandall D. Smith, University of Illinois, ChicagoOverview: This paper offers an examination of the mostcomplete detailed dataset of American international agreementssince World War II. I test the hypothesis that the number of soleexecutive agreements conducted during this time period hasremained static.News Coverage of Use of Force Events and the Rally 'Roundthe Flag EffectWayne P. Steger, DePaul UniversityMatt Wolski, DePaul UniversityOverview: This study contends that the effect of a "use of forceevent" on public opinion depends on the volume of newscoverage given to the event by the news media.An Emerging Civil Society in ChinaSung-Ho Kim, Ohio UniversityMichael B. Cunnington, Ohio UniversityOverview: An examination of a rising civil society and itsimplications for the domestic regime and the external relationsof China.Brian Lai, University of IowaGlenn P. Hastedt, James Madison University14-11 WAR AND SECURITYRoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 3:45 pmJ. David Singer, University of Michigan, Ann ArborEndogenizing War Effort and Conflict IntensityAlex Weisiger, Columbia UniversityErik Gartzke, Columbia UniversityOverview: We present a game-theoretic model of endogenouswar effort to help generate intuition about why some wars aremore intense than others.Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation andMisperception as Causes of WarDan Lindley, University of Notre DameOverview: Is war a rational pursuit? Pre-1900, war initiatorswon 73% of wars. Since 1945, the win rate is 33%. Assumingthat states initiate wars planning to win, war's utility isdeclining. Miscalculation and misperception now dominatedecisions for war.Polarity and War: Simulating Power Concentration inVirtual World PoliticsByoung W. Min, Seoul National University of TechnologyOverview: A computer simulation is conducted to test twotheoretical themes on the frequency of war regarding itsrelationships with polarity and power concentration.The Snowballing Effect of Concessions: When Present DealsAffect Future OutcomesThomas Chadefaux, University of Michigan, Ann ArborOverview: Concessions made today affect future bargainingpower. In a three-player context, war can be rational even undercomplete information if one of the parties expects its losses overtime to be high.The Diffusion of Military Power, Power Balances, and WarMichael Horowitz, Harvard UniversityOverview: This paper studies the diffusion of military power inthe international system, using time-series and survival analysisto examine potential factors that may drive the rate and extent ofdiffusion for major military innovations.Michelle Kuenzi, University of Nevada, Las VegasCarmela Lutmar, Princeton University237
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