PaperDisc.South Korean Public Opinion on Foreign PolicyDavid G. Tully, Northwestern UniversityOverview: This paper examines how South Koreans think andfeel about three major themes using multivariate analysis of newdata: cooperation and trust of allies, economic fairness andtrade, and security and regional stability.Won K. Paik, Central Michigan University10-7 THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF LOCALGOVERNMENT CHANGE IN THEPEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINARoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 8:30 amMatthew Hoddie, Texas A&M UniversityChina's Local State Diversity and Its Effect on PrivateSector DevelopmentYayoi Kato, University of Southern CaliforniaOverview: The paper examined the regional diversity of localgovernments' roles and influences on China's private sectordevelopment through the document analysis of provincial partypublications and the survey data analysis of private enterprises.Fiscal Crisis, <strong>Political</strong> Crisis?-- Financing LocalGovernment in ChinaWu Zhang, Cornell UniversityOverview: Based on more than 2 years of fieldwork in Hunan,this paper explains why townships and villages in central Chinahave been facing a fiscal crisis since 1994 and why the tax-forfeereform has deepened this crisis.From Symbiotic Clientelism to Principled ClientelismXiaoli Tian, University of ChicagoOverview: This research revisits the political patronage andclientelist networks in the development of Chinese privateenterprises. New game rules represented by principledclientelism has been developed between local officials and someentrepreneurs.Central Signaling and Local Reform in ChinaHaifeng Huang, Duke UniversityOverview: Why could China's local governments from time totime break through Beijing's policy restrictions, when thecountry's political system is highly centralized? Put simply,there is a signaling game going on, in which social expectationsmatter.Experimenting with Democracy in the ChineseNomenklatura SystemGang Guo, University of MississippiOverview: This paper analyzes the recent central and localexperiments of reforming the personnel control of localgovernment leaders in China, which are extremely limited andtightly controlled yet introduce some elements of downwardaccountability.Re-evaluating Market-Preserving Federalism: Soft BudgetConstraints of Local Governments in ChinaLynette Ong, Australian National UniversityOverview: Soft budget constraints of China's local governmentsoffer a lesson that without the effective mechanisms that exist infunctioning democracies to act as checks-and-balances, fiscaldecentralization could create unbridled power detrimental togrowth.Matthew Hoddie, Texas A&M University10-14 FORMER SOVIET CENTRAL ASIA IN THESPOTLIGHTRoomChairPaperTBA, Sat 8:30 amThomas J. Wood, IFES, Washington, D.C.Central Asia: Geopolitical Prisoners?Larisa Yun, University of OklahomaOverview: The present paper examines the foreign policy ofCentral Asia from the perspective of political geography. Itargues that the direction of Central Asian foreign policy islargely determined by its landlockedness and the nature of itsneighborhood.PaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.One Year On: The Kyrgyz Revolution RevisitedThomas J. Wood, IFES, Washington D.C.Overview: This paper argues that the "Revolution" of March2005 was symptomatic of the arrival of a new populism inKyrgyz politics. Perhaps not democratization, it does mark theend of the monopoly of Soviet-derived ideologies on power.Legitimacy in Post-Socialist Asia: The Importance of SocialWelfareJeffrey S. Payne, Indiana University, BloomingtonOverview: Post-socialist states may become more democraticbecause of liberalization's failures. In Asia, states reinventingtheir authority to match a privatizing economy hold onto powerbetter than those incapable or unwilling to do so.Defining Corruption in Kyrgyzstan: the Role of PublicPerceptions.Victoria N. Lavrova, American University (Central Asia)Overview: This research examines political corruption incontemporary Kyrgyz politics. The role of public perceptionswill demonstrate to what extent corruption in Kyrgyzstan ispublicly accepted, and can be regarded as a cultural issue.Islam in Central Asia: Authoritarian Rule and ReligiousExtremist GroupsDilshod Achilov, University of ArizonaOverview: This project evaluates the causal complexity ofreligious extremist groups emerging as a strong oppositionagainst authoritarian rule in Central Asia.Askat Dukenbaev, Kent State University11-8 NEW DIRECTIONS IN THE STUDY OFPOWER AND FORCERoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 8:30 amNeda A. Zawahri, Cleveland State UniversityDivided Cores, Multiple Peripheries: Governance Nodes andState TerritoryFrank E. Williams, University of South CarolinaOverview: This paper suggests a map of the world based not onpolitical lines, but on the authority radiating from "nodes" ofgovernance.Conflict and Cooperation over International RiversNeda A. Zawahri, Cleveland State UniversityOverview: As states look to their international rivers to meetingincreasing demand for water, the likelihood for conflictincreases. Our understanding of these conflicts remains nascent.This paper analyzes and suggests ways of improving existingarguments.Fighting Fourth Generation Warfare With A ReserveDependent MilitaryEmilio A. Rodriguez, Mount St. Mary's UniversityJohn P. Rodriguez, Mount St. Mary's UniversityOverview: The US is fighting the war on terror using aprofessional military that relies on reserves. Decision-makersmust adapt to the political and military requirements ofprotracted conflict in order to develop a capacity for dealingeffectively with 4GW.Private Soldiers, Private Wars: Private Military Companiesand MobilizationJames A. Rydberg, University of IowaGail J. Buttorff, University of IowaOverview: Drawing upon past work on audience costs andmobilization, this paper evaluates the role of PMCs as analternative to traditional military mobilization.Olga Bogatyrenko, University of California, Davis12-8 INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTSRoomChairPaperTBA, Sat 8:30 amDavid S. Yamanishi, Michigan State UniversityCorruption, Illegal Trade and Compliance with theMontreal ProtocolKate Ivanova, University of Southern CaliforniaOverview: This paper develops a theory of illegal trade inozone-depleting substances, taking into account the level ofcorruption, law enforcement and environmental tariffs, and tests190
PaperPaperDisc.predictions concerning legal trade to make inferences aboutsmugglingWhen and Why Change the Rules? Global TelecomReforms in Recent YearsKirsten Rodine Hardy, Brown UniversityOverview: This paper asks when and why over 129 countriesenacted liberal telecom reform in recent years. Using a Weibullmultivariate hazard model, this chapter analyzes the timing ofreform in 184 countries from 1975-2001.The Global Battle Over the MultiFiber AgreementAnastasia Xenias, Columbia UniversityOverview: The end of the Multi-Fiber Agreement in January2005 which regulated the world textile and apparel tradethrough a multilateral system of quotas, produced one of thetoughest and broadest trade policy battles in recent history,which still rages on.Alexandra G. Guisinger, University of Notre Dame12-203 INFORMAL ROUNDTABLE: GLOBALTRADERoom TBA, Sat 8:30 amPresenter Preferential Trade Agreements: Legalism and TradeCandace Miller, University of ArizonaOverview: The use of preferential trade agreements often failsto account for institutional differences between agreements,instead treating them as dichotomous variables. This paperattempts to explain one of the aspects of institutional difference,legalismPresenter The U.S. as a Global Consumer: Providing a Global PublicGood?Tina F. Mueller, University of Nebraska, LincolnDan B. Braaten, University of Nebraska, LincolnOverview: This paper offers an alternative approach to thebalance of payments debate by analyzing the US trade deficitwithin a global public goods framework. This broadens thedebate and begs for a more international approach on behalf ofUS policymakers.13-8 THE MIDDLE EAST AND INTERNATIONALPOLITICSRoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 8:30 amNehemia Geva, Texas A&M UniversityPakistan’s Conflict Behavior and Implications forDemocratic Peace TheoryHassan Bashir, Texas A&M UniversityOverview: Kargil conflict between Pakistan and India is perhapsthe only known anamoly to the Democratic Peace theory. Thispaper analyzes Pakistan's Conflict behavior since independanceand its implications for the Democratic Peace argument.Satellite TV and Radio Transmission in DemocracyPromotion: The Case of IranSoleiman Kiasatpour, Western Kentucky UniversityIan C. Nash, Western Kentucky UniversityOverview: This paper surveys the role and effects of satelliteTV and radio programming in democracy promotion in the caseof Iran. Both US and private party broadcasts are analyzed toevaluate these effects on democracy promotion in general.Identity and Arab Public Opinion on Foreign RelationsRussell E. Lucas, University of OklahomaPeter A. Furia, Wake Forest UniversityOverview: Using survey data from seven different Arabsocieties we test the relationships between attitudes towardsnon-Arab countries and attitudes on Palestine and Iraq, variouscompeting identity frames, and demographic characteristics.The Role of Islam in International Politics: New PotentialsMohammad A. Tabaar, Georgetown UniversityOverview: Many IR scholars believe that Islamicfundamentalism is on the rise. While this has been true in thepast it may not necessarily be the case in the future. There arenew trends in the Islamic world that support a limited role forreligion in politics.Nehemia Geva, Texas A&M UniversityRibhi I. Salhi, Roosevelt University14-8 SECURITY CHALLENGES IN THE POST9/11 ERARoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperPaperDisc.TBA, Sat 8:30 amJacob English, Marquette UniversityFrom Acquisition to Use: Why Terrorists Will Not Attackwith Nuclear WeaponsChristopher B. McIntosh, University of ChicagoIan Storey, University of ChicagoOverview: Conventional wisdom and US foreign policy areanimated by the fear of a nuclear terrorist attack on the UShomeland.Global Terrorism and Western Agendas; the ConvergencestheDivergencesVisne Korkmaz, Yildiz Technical UniversityOverview: This paper is focusing on the question; where doesthe West stand in the fight against terrorism?The Threat of Terrorism and the Challenge of Non-ComplianceRabia Akhtar, Fatima Jinnah Women UniversityOverview: The multilateral nonproliferation regimes have comeunder direct threat posed by terrorism after 9/11. This researchseeks to identify the causes of non-compliance by the signatorystates and the challenge posed on the credibility of theseregimes.The Utility of Nuclear Deterrence Against Terrorists andRogue StatesLisa Saum, University of California, Los AngelesOverview: The study readjusts classic nuclear deterrence tocombat rogue states and terrorist organizations. It recommendsusing a graduated threat spectrum chart, allowing policymakersto visualize and determine the degree of threat posed by suchactors.Jordan's Security Dilemma and the Use of Military ToolsAnouar Boukhars, Wilberforce UniversityOverview: Jordan's security dilemma won't be alleviatedthrough the use of military tools. To prevail it must adopt amulti-dimensional security policy that promotes the values ofprevention, accountability, political participation and rule oflaw.Andrada Irina S. Costoiu, University of Illinois, Chicago15-4 CIVIL WARS AND STATE REPRESSIONRoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperTBA, Sat 8:30 amRavi Bhavnani, Michigan State UniversityInterstate Signals, Intervention and Civil War DurationClayton L. Thyne, University of IowaOverview: This paper examines how 3rd party interventionsaffect the duration of civil war. I argue that interventions thattake place during a civil war can only be understood in thecontext of pre-war signals sent by the potential interveners.Why the Heavens Did Not Darken: or Why Vietnam DidNot Become Another Asian Killing FieldMaureen S. Hiebert, University of TorontoOverview: An exploration of why Vietnam did not experiencegenocide and Cambodia did following the end of the Indochinawars in 1975 emphasizing the importance of political culture,elite interpretations of crisis, and the construction of victimgroup.Democratic Attitudes and Civil War: Testing the Micro-Foundations of the Democratic Peace in Sri LankaWilliam Mishler, University of ArizonaSteven Finkel, University of PittsburghOverview: This paper uses survey data to examine the impact ofdemocratic values on public attitudes about war and peace in SriLanka's Civil War. It contributes both to our understanding ofcivil war and the domestic limits of the democratic peace.Bullets Before Ballots: Understanding the CoerciveFoundations of <strong>Political</strong> DemocracyChristian Davenport, University of Maryland, College ParkClaudia Dahlerus, Albion CollegeOverview: We consider the impact of state repression on regimechange and examine its influence using a vector autoregressionmodel. This allows us to assess the importance of repression and191
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