2006 Conference Program - Midwest Political Science Association

PaperPaperPaperAre Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as ElectionPredictors?Christopher Wlezien, Temple UniversityRobert S. Erikson, Columbia UniversityOverview: Election markets have been praised for their abilityto forecast elections and to forecast better than trial-heat polls.This paper challenges that argument based on an analysis ofIowa Electronic Market data from recent presidential elections.Multiple Methods, Conflicting ConclusionsAmy R. Gershkoff, Princeton UniversityOverview: I do a comparative analysis of 4 methods formeasuring issue salience: 3 from the literature and 1 newmethod. I apply all methods to the same data, and show thatdifferent methods produce different conclusions about theimpact of salience in voting.Negative Voting in Presidential ElectionsJonathan Williamson, Lycoming CollegeOverview: Using NES data, this paper updates evidence ofnegative voter support over the last twenty years. The paper alsoexplains negative voting at the micro level; factors leading tonegative voting include ideology, partisanship and voterefficacy.Paper The Ambivalent Voters in Presidential Elections 1980 ~ 2004Sung-jin Yoo, Stony Brook UniversityOverview: What are the effects of ambivalence in electoralchoice? Focusing on the electoral choice of ambivalent voters inU.S. Presidential elections since 1980, I attempt to find theeffects of attitudinal ambivalence on electoral choice.Disc.Helmut Norpoth, SUNY, Stony Brook22-8 POLITICAL AWARENESS ANDKNOWLEDGERoomChairPaperPaperPaperPaperTBA, Sat 10:30 amKatherine Cramer Walsh, University of Wisconsin, MadisonExplaining Variations in Political Knowledge GapsJason Barabas, Harvard UniversityJennifer Jerit, University of Connecticut/Southern IllinoisUniversity, CarbondaleOverview: Scholars often link knowledge to demographics, butwe concentrate on the role of the information environment.Pairing dozens of surveys with media content analyses,variations in the quantity and quality of information affectpolitical knowledge.Who Provides Stability?: The Rational Public and ModelUncertaintyGregory E. McAvoy, University of North Carolina,GreensboroOverview: A longstanding concern among scholars andobservers of American politics is whether the public possessesthe ability to make reasonable and informed decisions aboutpolitics. Page and Shapiro provide reasons to think that in theaggregate public opiPolitical Knowledge and Public Approval: California in thePost-Recall EraKimberly L. Nalder, California State University, SacramentoOverview: Did support for the 2003 CA recall stem fromignorance about state government? Original CA Field Poll datais used to evaluate whether citizen ignorance drives publicsupport for specific state policies and leaders in the post-recallera.Political Gossip, Friendship Networks, and Attitude Changeon Policy Issues: Experimental EvidenceSuzanne Parker, Purdue UniversityGlenn Parker, Purdue UniversityJay McCann, Purdue UniversityOverview: This study is based upon two experiments wherestudent-interviewers offer their opinions on salient and nonsalientpolitical issues individually to a group of their (5) friendsin structured interview situations.PaperDisc.Can Knowledge Correct for Partisan Bias in PoliticalPerceptions?Danielle Shani, Princeton UniversityOverview: In this paper, I argue that political knowledgeexacerbates rather than ameliorates the impact of partisan biason perceptions of “objective” national conditions, like the stateof the economy or the crime rateJeffrey J. Mondak, University of Illinois, Urbana-ChampaignKatherine Cramer Walsh, University of Wisconsin, Madison22-205 INFORMAL ROUNDTABLE: FOREIGNOPINIONS OF THE UNITED STATESRoom TBA, Sat 10:30 amPresenter Responsive Diplomacy: Measuring Foreign Opinions of theUnited StatesRyan M. Tuggle, Georgetown UniversityOverview: Analysis of foreign opinion polling can reveal theprobable impact of existing and proposed diplomatic policies.This study applies a multi-nomial logit regression to opinionpolling data collected by the Pew Global Attitudes project.23-201 INFORMAL ROUNDTABLE: LOCALDEMOCRACY IN MIDDLE AMERICARoom TBA, Sat 10:30 amPresenter Deliberative Democracy and the Study Circles inCarbondale, IllinoisAna M. Velitchkova, Southern Illinois University, CarbondaleOverview: A study on the Carbondale, Illinois Study Circlesinitiative “Carbondale Conversations for Community Action,”which examines how grassroots deliberation centered on localcommunity issues affects political actions and attitudes.Presenter Lessons in Direct Democracy from a Small City RecallElectionGregory E. Rathje, Western Michigan UniversityOverview: In August 2005 the city of Marquette, Michiganrecalled four of its seven commissioners. This research exploresthe political dynamics and policy consequences of the recall,within the framework of direct democracy.23-202 INFORMAL ROUNDTABLE: THEINTERNET'S INFLUENCE ON AMERICANDEMOCRACYRoom TBA, Sat 10:30 amPresenter Has the Internet Fulfilled its Democratic Potential?Tina Ebenger, Calumet College of St. JosephOverview: The Internet's effect on American democracy will bemeasured by Internet or online voting and Internet voterregistration.24-11 THE MEDIA AND MINORITY POLITICSRoomChairPaperPaperTBA, Sat 10:30 amGustavo Cano, University of Nebraska, OmahaRace and Place: The Impact of News Coverage of Urbanand Rural Depictions of PovertyMandi L. Bates, University of Kentucky/Texas A&MUniversity, Corpus ChristiOverview: This research investigates attitudes toward welfareand welfare recipients. In particular, it examines howstereotypes of places (understood as urban or rural) and racesportrayed in the news media impact judgments of welfare andwelfare recipients.Media Framing of Racial Divides in Public Opinion AfterHurricane KatrinaJanet L. Donavan, University of Puget SoundOverview: Does George W. Bush care about black people?This paper traces the process by which race became a majornews frame for understanding the federal government's responseto Hurricane Katrina.208