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Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.zaWhere inductive inference is used to arrive at conclusions on the basis of newempirical evidence, deductive inference is mainly used during the phase ofhypothesis formulation. The aim in a research project is frequently to test anexisting theory or model. This usually means that testable hypotheses (alsocalled research hypotheses) are derived from the theory, that data are collected,and that the researcher determines whether or not the data support the researchhypothesis (in experimental designs where null-hypothesis designs areemployed, the aim of the research is to falsify or reject the null hypothesis).The formulation of the research hypothesis (and also the null hypothesis) fromexisting theory is a deductive process.The following theory on conflict potential is presented in the form of threestatements:S 1 : Conflict potential in a complex segmented society (as in South Africa)increases if two unequally stratified interest groups are differentiated byboth colour and class differences.S 2 : The potential for mass conflict is reduced by increased inter-groupmobility, and if socio-economic integration is promoted.S 3 :Increased occupational mobility promotes mobility between socialclasses.If one were to accept these statements as the core of a theory on conflictpotential, and if one were further to accept that South Africa is a complexsegmented society, then the following conclusion may be drawn:C: An increase in occupational mobility among the members of the politicallyand economically deprived Black communities in South Africa,will lead to a decrease in conflict.It is now possible to reformulate the conclusion as a research hypothesis and tomake it the theme of a long-term research project. If the hypothesis were to beconfirmed in the long term, this confirmation would provide inductive supportfor the theory of conflict potential. The development of the conclusion from thepremisses s 1 to s 3 was, however, based upon deductive inference.Obviously, theories are not the only source that can be used to derivehypotheses. A clearly formulated generalization, such as the following, mayalso be used as the frame of reference of a research hypothesis:S 1 : Increasing levels of welfare have a negative influence on rates ofpopulation growth in the Third World OR higher levels of welfare inThird World countries usually results in lower rates of population growth.If one were also to assume that the majority of the members of the Blackcommunity in South Africa display the typical socio-economic and demo-116