Kingscote Airport Business Case Appendices - Kangaroo Island ...

Kangaroo Island Futures Authority Draft Economic Impact of Agriculture and TourismTable 7.12 Agricultural impact: high growth scenario, 8 years to 2019/20Value of Output b Gross regionalproductEmployment$m $m fteDirect ImpactAgriculture 55.6 28.5 201Processing 3.3 1.1 3Retail 1.6 0.5 7Food services 1.1 0.4 3Total Direct Impact 61.4 30.5 213Flow-on ImpactServices to agriculture 1.1 7Other manufacturing 0.3 5Wholesale trade 1.7 12Retail trade 1.3 22Accommodation and food services 0.7 10Transport and storage 0.9 9Finance and insurance 1.2 3Ownership of dwellings 1.8 0Property and business services 1.7 15Education 0.2 3Health and community services 0.4 6Personal services 0.4 8Other sectors 2.4 51Total Flow-on Impact 14.1 149Total Impact 44.6 362Regional total 216.8 2,330Proportion of regional total 21% 16%Source: EconSearch analysisThe economy wide impacts of the agricultural high growth scenario were estimated using theKangaroo Island RISE model showing, in summary, an increase in direct and flow-on:• GRP of approximately $44.6 million (21 per cent increase on 2011/12)• fte employment of 362 (16 per cent increase on 2011/12)7.2.5 SummaryThe low growth scenario for the agricultural industry would result in 2.6 per cent growth overeight years. This outcome is a combination of a low level improvement in the four mainpotential drivers of economic growth, namely technical productivity (e.g. yield/hectare),operating costs (e.g. logistics), premium brand (e.g. Brand Kangaroo Island) and change in landuse (e.g. switch to more intensive production systems).The impact of this growth would be an increase in Kangaroo Island GRP of about 5 per centwhich is significant given the contribution of agriculture to the Kangaroo Island economy isabout 27 per cent of GRP. This implies that the contribution of the agriculture industry willgrow by about 17 per cent over the 8-year time period.e c o n s e a r c hPage| 41