Kingscote Airport Business Case Appendices - Kangaroo Island ...

Kangaroo Island Futures Authority Draft Economic Impact of Agriculture and Tourism3. TOURISM SCENARIOSSouth Australia Strategic Plan (SASP) Targets: source: http://saplan.org.au/targets/4-tourismindustryThe SASP is the overall frame of reference for industry and community development in SouthAustralia. Target four (4) of the SASP is to ‘increase visitor expenditure in South Australia’stotal tourism industry to $8 billion and on Kangaroo Island to $180 million by 2020.The SASP audit 2012 found that the total tourism expenditure in South Australia increasedfrom $3.77 billion in 2002 (the baseline year) to $4.73 billion in 2011. The average annualgrowth rate from 2002 to 2011 was 2.55%. To achieve the 2020 target of $8 billion will requirean average annual growth rate of 6.01%.The SASP Audit Committee found that data on tourism expenditure on Kangaroo Island wasnot reliably available and they were consequently unable to rate progress against the target toincreasing visitor expenditure on the Island to $180 million by 2020.The following three draft scenarios are provided as examples:1. Base case scenario2. Moderate growth scenario3. High or other growth scenarioThe scenarios will feature a base of 2001/02, trend analysis from 2006/7 and key targets datesof 2019/20 and 2039/40Base caseThe base case will map the trend of tourism growth in visitor numbers and visitor expenditurefrom 2006/07 to 2011/12. The trend will be extrapolated to 2019/20 and beyond to 2039/40.The economic impact modelling will focus on the value to the economy (Gross RegionalProduct (GRP)), employment and population. The potential industry profile for the 2019/20 KIeconomy will be presented to provide insight into community health and education needs astwo key social indicators.TOMM data related to visitor numbers will be substituted for the visitor numbers in the coredata above.It will be assumed in the base case:1. That the ratio of domestic day, domestic overnight and international visitors will beconsistent with the 2011/12 distribution and maintained as a constant through the period.2. That the relationship between industry sectors in the economy will remain the same asthat of 2011/12; that is there will be no significant structural change in the relationshipsbetween industry sectors such as retail, health and education. It is acknowledged thatstructural change becomes more likely over time with the impact of major change agentse c o n s e a r c hPage| 80