Kingscote Airport Business Case Appendices - Kangaroo Island ...

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Kangaroo Island Futures Authority Draft Economic Impact of Agriculture and Tourismlike improved technology (e.g. broadband), demographic changes such as an ageingpopulation and policy influences like responses to climate change.Moderate growthThe moderate growth scenario will reflect the target of $180 million of visitor expenditure forKangaroo Island by 2019/20 established in the South Australian Strategic Plan. As with thebase case, TOMM data related to visitor numbers will be substituted for the visitor numbers inthe core data above.As with the base case, it will be assumed in the moderate growth scenario:1. That the ratio of domestic day, domestic overnight and international visitors will beconsistent with the 2011/12 distribution and maintained as a constant through the period.2. That the relationship between industry sectors in the economy will remain the same asthat of 2011/12; that is there will be no significant structural change in the relationshipsbetween industry sectors such as retail, health and education.An annual growth rate in the order of 4.9% will be required to achieve this target.Other scenarios1. High growth scenario: A growth target that reflects a doubling of visitor number by 2020could be included.2. Changing assumptions within the base case and moderate growth scenario: The basecase and moderate growth scenario assume no change to the ratio of visitor type and therelationship between industries in the economy over time. Scenarios could be developedthat show the impact of changing these or other variables. Two variables that could betested are:a. the impact of changing the ratio of domestic day, domestic overnight and internationalvisitors to include more domestic overnight and / or international visitorsb. the impact of say 25%, 50% or 100% of domestic overnight and international visitorsstaying one more night3. Shift share: The shift share model is a way of demonstrating the performance of thetourism industry on Kangaroo Island compared with the performance of the industryacross the state. This approach helps to identify how each of the industry sectors withintourism such as accommodation or transport, are performing compared with theircounterparts elsewhere. Such an approach helps to identify which areas of the industry areperforming well and can be used to focus attention on comparative advantage.e c o n s e a r c hPage| 81
Kangaroo Island Futures Authority Draft Economic Impact of Agriculture and Tourism4. AGRICULTURE SCENARIOSThree draft scenarios (base case, moderate growth and high or other growth) are provided asexamples as a basis for discussion.Base caseThe base case will map the trend of growth in the value of agricultural production from 2001to 2006 and to 2011. The trend will be extrapolated to 2016 and beyond to 2021.In nominal terms the total value of agriculture decreased by approximately 23% between 2001($45.6m) and 2006 ($35.0m) but almost doubled between 2006 and 2011 ($67.4m). It shouldbe noted that the value of agricultural production in 2006 was particularly low due to thedrought. Over the 10 year period, 2001 to 2011, the total value of agriculture increased by 48per cent. In real terms, over the same period, the total value of agriculture increased by 10 percent.It will be assumed in the base case:1. No change in the land use profile2. No change in the level of farm gate value addingModerate growthTo realise the vision for KI, The Plan outlines a principle to “maintain and strengthen primaryproduction in appropriate areas”. However, it does not set a target for growth in agriculture onthe Island. KIFA are focused on how to deliver on a target of doubling 2010 farm gate incomeson KI by 2020.Between 2001 and 2011 the nominal value of agricultural production increased by 48 per cent.A moderate growth target would be to increase farm gate incomes by 50% by 2020 (from the2011 level). That is, half of what would be required under the KIFA target.Other scenarios1. High growth scenario: A growth target that reflects a doubling of farm gate incomes by2020 could be included as identified by KIFA (also acknowledging the EDB discussion paper‘Paradise Girt by Sea’ (2010)).2. Changing assumptions within the base case and moderate growth scenario: The basecase and moderate growth scenario assume no change to the landuse profile or level offarm gate value adding. Two variables that could be tested are:a. Changing the land use profileb. An increase in the level of farm gate value addinge c o n s e a r c hPage| 82
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PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTKangaroo Isla
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Kangaroo Island Airport Upgrade Bus
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Document History and StatusRev Desc
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6 Terminal Building 166.1 Descripti
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1 Introduction1.1 Scope of ReportTh
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3 Future Development Scenarios3.1 S
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4 Site Investigations4.1 OutlineA s
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Coober PedyKingscoteAccordingly, a
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For aircraft landing to the north a
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Table 5-1New Pavement ThicknessesPa
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In this Study, allowance has been m
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An additional 20% of the gross area
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7 Landside Facilities7.1 Car Parkin
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This situation will require monitor
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8 Capital Costs Estimates8.1 Introd
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Table 8-2Pavement Element Compariso
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8.4.3 Security Screening CostsIn ad
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Appendix AKingscote Airport - Curre
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Appendix CCalculations Terminal Bui
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Appendix DCapital Cost Estimates Sc
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Kingscote Airfield ReviewKangaroo I
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Kangaroo Island Airport Upgrade Bus
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CONTENTSContents ..................
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Kangaroo Island Futures Authority D
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